Observations:
- The Mavericks thought they could control the pace and annoy the Suns just like they do every team recently. They couldn’t – Phoenix set the tone and when they’re in rhythm, they’re very hard to stop. Kudos to them.
- I like what I saw in the 4th QTR from the Mavericks, however, and gotta believe some of that will carry on to game 2. We may look to play them early. 1Q lines aren’t out at most books yet, but be on the lookout. I like the next game to start much slower and much more formidable for Dallas.
- The Heat defense was every bit as pesty as we thought they would be, and even though Harden had his moments, it wasn’t nearly enough. If Embiid continues to sit, this could be a sweep.
Onto Tuesday!
NBA Picks:
- Celtics 1Q -1.5, 1 unit
- If we’re going to take the Celtics, it has to be early. Tatum and his teammates weren’t nearly as efficient or effective on offense in game 1, like we thought might happen against a really good Milwaukee defense, but they should come out ready to pounce tonight. TD Garden will be amped for a revenge game and Boston has started slow this entire postseason – they should know, after game 1, that they can’t let that happen against the Bucks. Worked against Brooklyn, won’t work here. Celtics win it early and cover, in our opinion, but look to bet the Bucks live later in the game. If this line moves up in Boston’s favor anymore (I don’t think it will), we may take the Bucks full game.
- Celtics/Bucks 1H under 104.5, 1 unit
- A hard-fought first QTR, followed by some inferior bench offense against two great defenses in the 2nd QTR, should really slow this game down early.
- Warriors -2, 1.5 units and
- Warriors/Grizz under 227.5, 1 unit
- Neither of these lines have moved much and for good reason. They shouldn’t. Golden State is the better team and Memphis played a very clean game 1 and still lost, without Draymond Green on the court. I don’t think Golden State is as clumsy or inefficient tonight, they normally aren’t two games in a row, and Draymond’s return should fuel an extra level of intensity. Warriors win, defense improves and stifles Memphis.
- 1/2 unit, Mavs win Series (+350)
- Do I think the Mavs win the series? Not really. Do I think this is great value for a team that’s shown a ton of grit and potential? Yes. Taking it.
MLB Picks: Running out of time for MLB explanations – ask me Qs if you have any
- Brewers -1.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
- Rockies -1.5 (+120), 1 unit
