We’re comfortable with our overall plays for today, but I have some additional picks/leans. Let’s fucking WIN! Big day! Potentially exciting for our bankrolls… potentially… ha.
NBA Picks:
Bucks 1Q ML (-130), 1.5 units and
Bucks 1H ML (-125), 1.5 units and
Bucks full game ML (-135), 1.5 units each
Oh yea, we’re going to town on Milwaukee Saturday! The Celtics are a VERY legitimate team and cannot be taken lightly, but historically these are the spots where the Bucks like to clobber teams; at home after a loss. The Bucks are 27-13 SU as a home favorite, 21-11 SU after a loss, and 29-15 SU as a home team. Fiserv Forum will be loud, and Milwaukee’s defense won’t perform at the same level they did on Tuesday (aka we’ll see a much better version). Giannis props are probably a good idea, too. To be clear, these are 3 different bets, all moneyline, all Bucks, all 1.5 units each. Let’s fucking go!
Warriors -7, 1.5 units
I think this line is super sharp and has been – I had it at 7, it came out at -6.5, and now it’s at -7.5 at some books. So then why am I betting it? This is a CLASSIC smash spot for the Warriors. It’s game 3, they’re back at home, they just lost and allowed way too many Ja shots, and I expect them to be at THEIR BEST. This is something many handicappers wouldn’t like – betting on a game when your number is exactly where the books have it. But I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again and I think it’s why we did well on Circa – you cannot be afraid to take a bigger line if/when these rare situations occur. This is a fantastic setup for Golden State, win or lose, and I’m pulling the trigger.
Suns/Mavs under 215, 1 unit
We think this number will fall and fall after game 3 and for good reason – the Mavs, at home, controlling the tempo, turns out to be a pretty damn slow game, as we expected. This game will be VERY contentious as Phoenix looks to regain control but now Dallas has renewed confidence. Expect tenacious defense and hopefully not too many fouls.
Heat/76ers 1H under 107, 1 unit
A lot of the same reasons as above, I just like the 1H better. Miami CANNOT allow the same type of efficiency from Maxey and other non-Embiid/Harden players, and Philly played impressively on defense in game 3. I expect a slow, highly competitive start.
UFC Picks:
Oliveira/Gaethje over 2.5 rounds (+125), 1 unit
At this point both of these seasoned fighters understand how dangerous their opponent is. Both have the ability to end this fight early, but with the amount of respect they have for one another, I don’t see how they don’t approach it cautiously. That should eliminate round 1 and give us a buffer heading into round 2. Things tend to pick up in championship fights after the 2nd round, so I wouldn’t bet beyond that, but I love this to go further than the books expect.
Chandler/Ferguson goes the distance (+150), 1.5 units
If there’s one thing we know about Tony Ferguson, it’s that he’s really, really tough for any opponent to figure out. Despite being out of the octagon for a year, Tony has no shortage of confidence heading into this fight with one of the best lightweights to ever do it. Chandler is known for his superior wrestling ability, and obviously he could catch Ferguson at some point and score a submission or TKO – Chandler’s athleticism and explosiveness is insane. But I’d rather bet on a proven angle that we’ve seen occur so many times in Ferguson fights. “El Cucuy” (aka the boogeyman) is Ferguson’s nickname for a reason. He’s slithery, unpredictable, and incredibly resilient. And even though he’s on a 3-fight losing streak, look who he lost against: Dariush, Oliveira, and Gaethje – the best of the best. I think we see a fantastic fight here and Ferguson gives Chandler everything he can handle.
Norma Dumont by 3 Round Decision (-105), 1 unit
Dumont is a dynamic Brazilian striker with plenty of tools to overwhelm Chiasson throughout the contest. She’s only lost 1 fight and most of her wins, like most female fighters, have come by decision. This is a quality line for that result.
Melissa Gatto wins inside distance (+350), 1/2 unit
I may have a little bias here because Gatto has a pretty face, but don’t be fooled by her looks; this chick is aggressive and all of her last 3 wins have come before the final bell. Capable of beating her opponents in myriad ways, Gatto is undefeated in her pro career and I’m not sure Cortez should be favored. This should not be +350 so let’s take advantage.
Kentucky Derby Analysis: I’ll never claim to be anything close to a horse racing expert and no lie, typically I SUCK at making money on it. So I might as well just give you some other sources to consider.
MLB Picks: I don’t have any plays today in MLB – lots of doubleheaders and I’m more focused on the NBA and UFC (we might add some UFC plays too, stay tuned). Here are some ancillary thoughts and leans:
The Reds still suck.
The Dodgers (G1) are probably a great parlay leg today.
Blue Jays/Guardians (G1) over is good value.
Astros (G1) another good parlay leg.
Like Logan Webb and like SF.
The unders in MIA/SD and TB/SEA are probably a solid look.
Enjoy the day, people! –Chris
