Well Jesus H., UFC kicked our ass last night. What a crazy event. Ferguson got caught, Norma didn’t care about winning, Rose looked like she was on drugs, and objectively (and this was just a bad call by us), Oliveira is built differently. What an animal. Remember that in his next UFC fight.
The NBA did us well and we’re back at MLB today, too. Let’s go!
NBA Picks:
Suns/Mavs under 215, 1 unit
We think this number will fall and fall after game 3 and for good reason – the Mavs, at home, controlling the tempo, turns out to be a pretty damn slow game, as we expected. This game will be VERY contentious as Phoenix looks to regain control but now Dallas has renewed confidence. Expect tenacious defense and hopefully not too many fouls.
Heat/76ers 1H under 107, 1 unit
A lot of the same reasons as above, I just like the 1H better. Miami CANNOT allow the same type of efficiency from Maxey and other non-Embiid/Harden players, and Philly played impressively on defense in game 3. I expect a slow, highly competitive start.
Heat ML (+110), 1 unit
A team as disciplined and buttoned up as the Heat will respond and respond with ferocity today. That’s why we like the under in the 1H, but it’s also why we like the Heat today. The Sixers are capable of playing blue-collar basketball for stints, but it doesn’t last. Embiid and Harden didn’t have a great game 3 and I expect more of the same in this one, and let’s face it – as great as Maxey was in game 3, that’s not going to happen again. A lot of shots were dropping and Philly had a ton of momentum, but if there’s anything we’ve learned about the 76ers, they don’t stay hot and they’re overly-reliant on Embiid. I think this will be a close, entertaining game, but the Heat are too physical for the 76ers to keep fending off.
MLB Picks:
Brewers/Braves under 8, 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Ashby has been solid and Morton is overdue to show more command.
Yankees -1.5, 1.2 units to win 1
Yankees smash spot behind Cole – Texas has looked better but this is a great spot for NYY on a Sunday off a loss.
Jays/Guardians over 7.5, 1.05 units to win 1 unit
We love Manoah but I don’t trust Cleveland to keep this game in range. The Blue Jays’ power is considerable and this line is sneaky – Pilkington probably isn’t as good as his first start, and this is a good test.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
