Ass-kicking in MLB and things went a bit awry in our late-NBA game, too. I’ll try to be more proactive and let you guys/gals know ahead of time if I may be live betting an NBA game and posting it on Twitter. We got an extra win yesterday by betting PH/DAL under 233.5 live. We don’t count that as part of our premium record, that wouldn’t be fair to you, but take advantage and maybe set my Twitter account to alarm you if/when I post those plays. If I ever think I’m in a position to live bet or I think there could be an opportunity, I’ll do my part to let you know.
Onto today’s plays! 41-31 (57%), +11.4 units in the NBA playoffs thus far. Let’s truck on, and check out the NHL plays below!
NBA Picks:
Celtics/Bucks under 212, 1.5 units
We figured this total might rise and we’re happy to take advantage. Not one of these games has gotten close to that number, and this game should be as contentious as any other. Game fours are always hard to predict, especially when it’s a 2-1 situation and the series favorite is still on the road. This game is a pick-em for a reason and we’re staying away from picking a side, but close games are generally better for the under, since that means the final 4 minutes or so will be slow, highly contested, and probably low-scoring. If this game starts fast, this might be a situation where we look to hammer a live total under again.
Grizzlies/Warriors 1H over 109, 1.5 units
There was a noticeable difference when Ja Morant was out of the Grizzlies lineup from late March to early April, and it wasn’t bad news for Memphis. The Grizzlies’ pace and offensive efficiency both increased a few ticks, which might be strange for some of us but we see that often when a star like Ja is out of a lineup. Well-coached teams with good camaraderie (like Memphis) tend to rally together and put out over-the-top performances in support of their leader. That’s especially true if they’re facing inferior opponents. I can’t pull the trigger on Memphis +10 tonight and I would lean Golden State, actually. Memphis was impressive without Ja this year but this is the playoffs and the Warriors’ defense is rounding into form. At home, I would expect Golden State to succeed on both ends of the floor, just like we saw in game three, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they blew out the Grizzlies. In the first half, Memphis should fly up and down the court in an attempt to overwhelm the Warriors, and we’ve seen Golden State adopt the tempo of other teams when they’re rattled. The game thins out and slows down late, but I like a quick start and a lot of points at the start.
MLB Picks:
Brewers -1.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units
The Brewers have completely owned the Reds so far this season and now Luis Castillo will get his first start today; tough opening gig. Castillo experienced significant negative regression in spurts last season and he’s certainly capable of being exposed. Woodruff has yet to show his best stuff and we expect a very solid game for him against a fledgling Cincinnati club at home, especially off a win.
Rays/Angels under 7.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
The Angels have struggled and produced considerably less slugs/HRs against left handed pitching, and Springer (0.69 ERA over 13 innings) has looked impressive. We love some Syndergaard and trust him to keep the Rays bats at bay, too. Under is fitting here.
NHL Picks:
Capitals ML (+165), 1 unit
We’re looking for value in the Stanley Cup Playoffs and look no further than DC. The Capitals took control of their series on Saturday, out-muscling and pacing the Panthers and taking advantage of the power play when it mattered, as their known to do. Capital One Arena was rocking and we know it will be again – mucho value on the dog.
Predators ML (+210), 1 unit
The Avalanche have been rather dominant in this series, we know, but this is Nashville’s chance to snag a home win before the series likely ends in Colorado. We’ve seen this story before. Taking the value.
