Nice day yesterday in MLB, but I still can’t believe the Avalanche just DIDN’T SCORE after halfway through the 2nd period. Killing me, but we move on. Another nice snag in foreign basketball, too. Let’s keep building our unit counts!
MLB Picks:
Rockies/Marlins under 8 (-110), 1.1 units to win 1
This is a tough game to handicap since both of these teams are in positions for more pedestrian offense, but they’re also due for some positive regression and, at first glance, the pitching contest isn’t all that intimidating. Looking deeper, Feltner has been nice and steady this season and seems to be more comfortable at the mound. Although all of his stats aren’t pristine, he doesn’t allow all that many big slugs, his walk rate is decent, his fastball is above-average, and his predictive stats have him staying under a 4.00 ERA on the season. Castana is a young gun who’s looked crisp in a few showings on the mound and he’s never allowed too many big hits. On top of that, Miami can’t find a run lately and Colorado, as we know, ain’t the same offense on the road. I like the under.
Mets (+113), 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Trevor Williams had a horrendous start to the season but has settled in tremendously since the start of May. The Astros won’t be an easy team to contain but right now the Mets are hitting against every team and it ain’t like Urquidy is untouchable either. For + units at the rate they’re winning, we’re going with NYM to keep on getting Ws.
Jays/White Sox under 9 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
Both of these units just continue to partake in high-scoring, wild contests and if this doesn’t set up for a regression to the mean, I don’t know what does. Gausman and Cease are consistent and elite in their command and should throw off the over-confident bats of both lineups. As long as the bullpens hold up, this one could fall way under the given total. An alt-total, IMO, not a bad idea.
D-Backs/Padres under 7, 1.1 units to win 1
Apparently I like a lot of unders today. I think this game looks a lot like last night’s contest. A few hits here and there, but two pitchers who can keep scoring opportunities under control against two offenses that are hardly intimidating at this juncture. Gallen has been studly and Manae is coming off a bad performance at Wrigley but he’s due to improve – after all, his first start of the season was a stifling, 7 inning performance against these same Diamondbacks.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
France – LNB Pro A
Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. AS Monaco, 1H over 78 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
The first team is sometimes named ASVEL Basket for short, in case you can’t find this game at your sportsbook. When Lyon-V has a down game or a loss, they tend to play with offensive-fire in the next contest, which usually means points. Yesterday’s contest went at a molasses-pace in the first 2 quarters of play. We think this one will pick up and become more of an offensive-showcase; that’s the pattern we see, anyway.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
