Game one conquered, onto game two! That’s exactly why we didn’t take the Warriors full game as a premium pick – Boston is as legit as their position suggests and they’ll give Golden State everything they can handle in this series. Predictably, the books are trying to bait us in game two. I have some early bets I like and HEY – not a bad day in MLB Thursday. If only the Twins didn’t choke, again, but maybe this is the day to play on them… (na, not against the Jays in Toronto).
Happy Friday, everyone!
NBA Finals Game 2:
Parlay: Warriors ML win + Over 215.5, 1 unit to win 1.94 units
Over 215.5, 1 unit
Celtics 1H +3, 1 unit
Lean Warriors -4
Defenses tend to not settle into these long series until later in the contest. Nerves, pressure, and physicality increase as the series goes on, too. We may consider some unders later but for now, I still really like the over. Golden State and Boston are A-okay pushing the pace and both are extremely efficient in transition offense. As the series goes on, we should expect significant regression from beyond the arc, too. Both teams had exceptional shooting nights from the perimeter, but I favor GS to win and I lean the full game -4 because I don’t think Boston can sustain that kind of 3-point success. I mean, Smart/Horford/White went 15/23 from beyond the arc – that’s insane. Golden state rallies, points are scored, but they won’t get there until the 3rd QTR (as usual). Taking Boston early; giving 3 points to the Celtics feels criminal.
MLB Picks:
Orioles ML (+117), 1 unit to win 1.17 units
Something is weird about this line. The Guardians have been hitting well and haven’t been as bad against lefties, but that always feels like fake-news with the lineup they have and how inconsistent that can be. I believe in Bieber but I’m still not sure he’s set in his command. Taking the home dog on a Friday at one of the best ballparks in the majors!
Yankees -6.5… joking but, may actually hit.
Padres/Brewers First 5 under 3.5 (-130), 1.3 units to win 1
I’m taking the bait! Two aces take the mound in a big-time pitcher’s dual and like the Giants/Marlins contest yesterday, 3.5 still feels too big for the first half.
MLB Parlay – Rays + Jays (again), 1 unit to win 1.18 units
French Open Picks:
Ruud/Cilic over 39, 1.5 units
Cilic is looking like the best version of himself in this tournament and he should give the favorite everything he can handle. I expect a 4-5 set match like Cilic had against Rublev.
