What’s up team – losing overall night in the Finals Game 2 but it felt like we had the right narratives and angles – just didn’t pick the right bets (which, obviously, is a big part of winning in this industry, ha). Warriors 1Q probably should have been a win (4-5 missed layups and a few missed FTs didn’t help) and the Celtics seemed to give up in the 3rd QTR. Nothing shocking from our purview. Despite what Twitter will tell you, the Warriors are a very good outfit and this will remain a very close series, in my opinion. People crowning the Celtics as champions after one game was a bit silly. Onto my prospective picks for game 3 and a few MLB plays tonight:
NBA Finals, Game 3:
Celtics 1Q -1, 1.5 units
Full Game under 212.5, 1.5 units
Much like the response we expected from Golden State, we expect the same aggression and retribution from Boston on Wednesday. Boston is back home at the TD Garden Arena and they’re well-aware that Golden State needs to win one of those road games to take the series back and have the home-court-advantage. The Celtics cannot allow the Warriors to penetrate the paint as often as they did in game two, and supporting cast members like Horford, Smart, and Grant Williams should have more productive games. I think the Celtics get off to a quick start and force Golden State to play from behind early, but watch out for that infamous 3rd quarter turn – wouldn’t be a bad idea to play on Golden State if that live line gets inflated.
As far as the total goes, at least one of these defenses will assert themselves in these contests and in all likelihood, both will win more than they’ll lose as this series drags on. Bodies are hurt (Tatum’s shoulder for example), players are battling and taking hard fouls, and getting into the paint will become more and more challenging. The pace dropped significantly at key moments in game two, partially because of the Warriors’ big lead, and even with a slew of turnovers we saw a total score that fell well-below the listed number; 212.5 feels 5-7 points too high; I’m on the under.
MLB Picks:
Guardians win (-125), to win 1 unit
Cal Quantrill (3.87 FIP) has been solid for the Guardians and Jon Gray is struggling to find consistency. The Guardians are also proving that they have young, talented hitters (like Gimenez and Owen Miller) who can keep them afloat and capitalize on unsteady throwers. I like CLE to win at home.
Astros -1.5 (+120), 1 unit to win 1.2 units
Christian Javier is the far-superior pitcher in this matchup and I don’t love this spot for Seattle, on the road, opening up this series with Robbie Ray (who’s had issues for awhile now) at the mound. I think the Astros clobber Seattle.
