What’s up people!
An absolutely BRUTAL beat last night on the Sky, who outperformed the Liberty in every single category except the one that mattered in the end: free throws. The Sky missed 3 FTs in the final 40 seconds to push our one wager and lose the other. It doesn’t take a calculus major to note that if they hit those free throws, we cover, win, and we look like ballsy sharps. Ah well, that’s variance and that’s why you NEVER over-invest in any one wager!
Onto Saturday; let’s make it a big one! Added more plays in CFL and UFC below, too.
WNBA Picks (12-10-1, +1.10 units):
Wings win (EVEN), to win 1.2 units
Wings TT over 81.5, to win 1.5 units
The WNBA’s best defensive team (the Dream) host the Dallas Wings today, the association’s best offense. The Wings lead the WNBA with a 112.1 offensive rating, nearly a full point above the touted Aces. Atlanta won the first two contests in this series so I like that this may matter more to the Wings, although the Dream better get off their collective asses if they hope to make the playoffs. Something’s wrong with their defense. In their last 3 games, all losses, Atlanta has allowed 86.3 ppg, and against offense that don’t have the same ability as Dallas. Once held up by their stingy defense, the Dream will hope to find it again tonight but I don’t trust it. The Wings are staying afloat, they’re not terrible on the road (7-7), and they’re very skilled at running the floor and taking advantage of second-chance opportunities. I think they overwhelm the Dream with high-octane offense and get the win today. Regression may hit Atlanta eventually, but they’re dumbfounded right now.
CFL Picks (8-6, +2.85 units):
Calgary 1Q +0.5 (-160), to win 1 unit
Calgary 1H +0.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
UFC 277 Picks (4-9, +2.02 units):
Pena/Nunes under 2.5 rounds (-115), to win 2 units
If I were abiding by the “Kelly Criterion,” I might bet a lot more than this because the formula tells me to spend way more than just 2 units here. I think this has a 60% chance of hitting, which I realize is probably conflated by my own bias, but the Criterion tells me to put 14 units on this. Interesting. In any case, I don’t like over-exposing myself in UFC — solo sports are so difficult to predict because of the sudden nature of 1-1 competition. One knockout, one slip, and you’re done. We learned the hard way betting on Aspinall last weekend. Anyway, these two chicks DO NOT like each other and I expect Amanda Nunes, who’s equal parts calculated and equal parts aggressive in these spots, to come out focused and make contact immediately. She’s on a mission, she wants her title back, and even better for this bet: Julianna Pena isn’t scared. Like, at all. I think these two warriors take it to each other early and often and someone goes night night.
Kai-Kara France by KO/TKO or DQ (+475), to win 4.75 units
I’ll keep this short – I think Brandon Moreno isn’t taking Kai-Kara France seriously enough. Moreno is a long-time killer in the flyweight division, deserving of his moniker, “the Assassin.” But France has legitimate KO power and if Moreno allows himself to get too close to France, which I think he will b/c of some veteran overconfidence, the young buck could put the former to champ to sleep in a millisecond. This line should be, in my opinion, under +300. I’ll take my chances with some great value here.
Derrick Lewis in Round 1 (+230), to win 1.15 units
THESE are the fights where Lewis does his best work. The freaks out there — Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier, Francis Ngannou — Derrick Lewis doesn’t fare well in those battles. Pavlovich is a big SOB and he has the reach advantage, but Lewis has a way of luring his opponents inside for a nice little crack. And that’s often all it takes. Pavlovich has some good fights under his belt, but this is a big step up in competition, The Black Beast has seen it all and I can’t imagine he’ll take his time – a confident Lewis ends it early.
Pantoja wins inside distance (+180), 0.8 units to win 1.44 units
Pantoja has never been finished and even in a very deep flyweight division, he has the more dynamic arsenal of ways to beat you. Submissions, TKO ability, and a constancy to his game, I think he takes down a talented Perez and earns another bid at a title shot.
Ankalaev wins inside distance (+135), 1.2 units to win 1.6 units
Magomed Ankalaev hasn’t lost for over 4 years and he’s riding an 8 fight win streak heading into this contest. Looking to become the next light heavyweight championship contender, Ankalaev faces no easy challenge today in Anthony Smith, who sounds determined to upset the dominant Ankalaev and stifle his climb to the top. Here’s the problem – although Anthony Smith is a dynamic, veteran UFC fighter (I saw him once at a bar in DC, intimidating dude for sure), Ankalaev won’t be affected by his gamesmanship. In fact, I think it’ll play right into Ankalaev’s heavy hands. Magomed can beat his opponents in myriad ways and like we saw in previous fights (Ion Cutelaba, for example), when an opponent is overly aggressive against Ankalaev, they pay for it. That’s how Anthony Smith is approaching this contest and I think it ends early because of it.
Nicolae Negumereanu (-123), to win 1 unit
Negumereanu faces Ihor Potieria today in a fight between two light heavyweights trying to at least peek into top contendership in their division. It’s unlikely that either one of these fighters are skilled enough to get there in the long run, but Nicolae has the patience and diversity of skill to outlast Potieria, who doesn’t seem to know how to win fights unless he can explode and KO his opponent early. NN is one of the most durable fighters in the UFC, with only 1 pro loss, and he’s never been beaten early. Take Nicolae Negumereanu for an early win on your card.
