Premiums, 8.31 and Beyond

Just way too high for a series that should be continually testy. The Aces can play better defense than what they’re showing and Sue Bird won’t just run over them in every game. Expect a battle and the Aces to win, wouldn’t make a bad parlay.

The Volunteers probably should be a top 25 team but preseason rankings are usually terribly inaccurate. We lean towards Ball State (+34.5), that’s a huge line for Week 1 and this is a huge game for the Cardinals, who had a down year in 2021 at 6-7 but usually they’re one of the more formidable offenses in the MAC. This just isn’t a great matchup for them to regain confidence. The Volunteers’ defense is better than advertised, in our opinion, and I think Ball St., who still has plenty of kinks to figure out, won’t get on the scoreboard very much on Thursday. I’m on the under.

This line has gone up and we think it’s gone up too much. JT Daniels, the transfer from GA and USC, has yet to reach his full potential but he’s in a good spot to prove he can hang with the big boys in Week 1 against a dominant Pitt defensive line. Fortunately the Mountaineers bring a veteran, highly-skilled offensive line and while they’ll likely make mistakes and blow some coverages on defense (they’re young and inexperienced), Pitt doesn’t have soaring offensive talent and I think this game is more evenly matched than people think. Taking the dog.

This is a BIG game at Purdue for both teams who are trending in opposite directions. Penn State has no momentum to speak of heading into this season. Hopes were high in 2021 but we saw them stumble badly down the stretch. Sometimes hype and belief can get you far, but we think the Nittany Lions showed their true selves at the end of last year’s campaign. Meanwhile Aidan O’Connell, the surging 6th year ultimate senior, returns as Purdue’s starting QB after a great year. He earned nearly 4,000 passing yards, threw for 28 TDs and only 11 INTs, he’s a good decision maker, and Purdue’s offense is bound to get more potent with Iowa transfer Tyrone Tracy joining the mix and enough talent to keep Brohm’s complex, high-octane offense in gear. I think it’ll be too much for Penn State, who just doesn’t have elite talent on offense and a defense that largely depended on turnovers last year. This is the Boilermakers’ game to lose.

Notre Dame +17.5 (-105),  to win 1.5 units
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.