Lots of great action today in MLB and some fantastic horse races. I’m gonna give you a free play in MLB and then hope to make some money this afternoon on the ponies.
My analysis turns to San Francisco today where the Giants take on the Royals in interleague action at 3:05 ET. Current lines sitting at Giants -136, Royals +116 and the Over/Under is sitting at 8 juiced to the over at -120.
For me this is all about the starting pitchers. Sean Manaea goes for the Giants as he is their latest reconstruction project after reviving the careers of Kevin Gausman and Alex Cobb. Sean had a rough 2022 campaign that saw him post a 4.96 ERA. He did have a little bad luck leaving guys on base, but his barrel rate was up to over 9% and his punchouts dipped below 9.00 K/9. This year he came on in relief in his first outing and struggled giving up 3 Earned runs across 2 innings striking out one batter and walking two. I don’t expect him to be up to full stamina today and would be shocked if he pitches into the 5th no matter how his outing goes. Brady Singer gets the nod for the Royals and he is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He really got locked in last year after July 1 posting a 2.62 ERA with a K Rate over 9. The walk rate was 2.1 per 9 innings which is elite. He had 12 quality starts in 17 times out to finish up the season. Singer gets a ton of ground balls with his sinker at 49% in 2022 which was good for #11 overall for qualified starting pitchers. He was also #2 overall for pitches taken within the zone allowing him to work ahead i counts most of the time. Hitters really struggle to pickup his slider vs his sinker. He gave up one earned run over 5 innings to get a victory over the Blue Jays his first time out. This Giants lineup doesn’t have near the amount of pop as Toronto and I look for Singer to be stellar again.
It’s the Royals for me today at +116. 1.5 Units
