UFC 287 Free Play – Sports Betting

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Gilbert Burns vs Jorge Masvidal +350

This is going to be a wonderful co-main event with two very good fighters matching up in the sunshine state.   Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal is the home dog here.   Home dog?  Jorge is from the state of Florida and is desperate for a win after dropping three losses in a row to the former champ Kamaru Usman and a top wrestler in Colby Covington.   Jorge has a nice record of 35-16 with huge wins vs Nate Diaz, Darren Till, and Cowboy Cerrone when he still had a pulse.  Although Jorge has a few submissions under his belt, he is much more of a stand up fighter who lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute.   Now the big problem with Jorge is that he is not a world class wrestler or grappler like his tier 1 opponent Gilbert “Durinho” Burns and that showed in his fight with Covington.  Gilbert is a BJJ black-belt from Brazil with a strong record of 21-5.  His  last two losses are very respectable to the biggest upcoming fighter in Khamzat Chimaev, as well as to former champ Kamaru Usman.   So why the big juice on Burns?   Well, it’s simply because Burns is an elite grappler who has 9 submissions to his 21 wins.   Six of his victories were by KO and six were by decision.   I think that his ground game could be too much for Jorge from the points side of things and Jorge’s only path to victory should be by KO.  The Odds are certainly not in his favor, but keep in mind that the judges are in his home state.   What I will say is that the fact that this fight is three rounds gives me some opportunity here.  Three of Gilbert’s last five fights have went to decision.  I personally think that with all the experience that Jorge has fighting other grapplers, he can sway off the submission moves and keep this fight going.  I also think that Burns would be stupid standing toe to toe with one of the best stand up fighters in the UFC in Gamebred himself.  Out of Masvidal’s 52 fights, he went to decision 29 times.   In his 16 losses, only four of them were inside the distance.   Right now, you can get that this fight goes to a three round decision for plus money at +125, but I also like the over 2.5 at +105.  Being in the Jorge’s home state of Florida, I think that he lasts and this could actually be kind of a boring fight in general.

Fight goes to decision +125 – 1.5 stars

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Kiev O'Neil: 20+ years of sports betting experience. Podcast host since 2017. College Football since 2019 412-367-27 UP 58.7U NFL since 2018 249-228-16 up 40U UFC since 2019 82-74-5 up 34.1U I do not necessarily look at myself as being a so called “sharp” sports bettor. Instead I like to think of myself as a great compiler of information who specializes in the Big 10, but also handicaps all NFL, NCAA football, UFC, Basketball, Horse Racing and more! I encourage people to specialize in a conference or division that will help give them the greatest edge in their sports wagers. I am never against a person betting against their favorite teams when the situation is right.