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*CBB(1u): Nebraska/Minnesota UNDER 129.5–11 AM CT
Both teams rank in the bottom quarter of the country in pace, and neither are trustworthy offensively. Nebraska shoots less than 30% from 3, and while the Golden Gophers are a bit better from deep, they shoot less than 43% overall from the floor. Both also hold a 1.0-1.1 assist/turnover ratio; that could be worse, but it’s not good enough to overcome their struggles in the shotmaking department.
A HUGE factor in me playing the full game Under is how bad these teams are from the foul line. Minnesota shoots just 59% from the charity stripe, good for 361st out of 363 teams. Nebraska’s 63.5% mark might seem substantially better, but that’s still a bottom 20 mark in the country. This one’s staying Under.
*CBB(1u): Xavier 1H +1 @ Villanova–3:30 PM CT
Villanova has simply lost a step in its first year following Jay Wright’s departure. We had seen the defense slip before, and that remains true this season(I do not have this power rated as a Top 100 defense). But, in my opinion, their offense is not what people think it is. If you’re going to play at the slow pace Villanova likes to play at, you have to rely on the ability to make jumpers. Well, Villanova has regressed in that area. In particular, the ‘Cats are shooting less than 34% from beyond the arc this season. That’s a concern given they also rank 319th in offensive rebounding %, providing little chance for second chance points.
I really like the makeup of this Xavier team. They’re an experienced group that is shooting nearly 51% from the floor and holds a borderline elite 1.5 assist/turnover ratio. The defense lags behind a bit, but I think they’ll be bailed out by Villanova’s lack of presence inside. In addition, the Musketeers are in great current form fresh off a double-digit win over UCONN.
Villanova is still the best free-throw shooting team in America, so out of respect for that, I’ll isolate this in the 1H. With that said, there’s plenty pointing me towards a play on Xavier here, especially as a ‘dog.
