We enjoyed a 4-1 week in MLB, bringing my season record to 152-141-6, +4.57u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to start the new week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(-120) @ Tigers–5:40 PM CT
Framber Valdez vs Eduardo Rodriguez is a total pitching mismatch, as is the offensive matchup between these two teams. Valdez has been absolutely fantastic for the ‘Stros this year, and he’s actually been sizably better on the road each of the past two seasons. Comerica Park is very pitcher-friendly, and Valdez will get the luxury of facing one of the worst lineups in baseball tonight that is on the heels of getting shutout yesterday. What I like most about Valdez is his unreal 5.18 groundball/flyball rate; this helps explain why he’s only allowed 0.47 HR/9 this season.
Tigers SP Eduardo Rodriguez has had a strange calendar year. He made 8 starts earlier this year before getting injured and completely cutting off contact from the team. He has drawn some favorable matchups in his 4 starts since returning, but this is the type of matchup where his regression will get punished. Rodriguez has lost 2 mph of velocity from his career average and is allowing more fly-balls and HR’s than at any other point in his career. The Astros have been steady against left-handed pitching all year and can be trusted in this spot.
Detroit’s bullpen has been a pleasant surprise this year, but the Astros still hold the edge in the later innings. Aside from Will Smith, this ‘Stros bullpen should have every other key arm available.
*MLB(1u): Braves F5 TT UNDER 1.5(+110) @ Giants–8:45 PM CT
We haven’t faded this Braves offense much this year, but this is a matchup I expect them to struggle in. Giants SP Alex Cobb has been utterly phenomenal at Oracle Park this year, bringing a 2.57 ERA and 1.11 WHIP into tonight’s start. Much like the aforementioned Valdez, Cobb produces ground balls(3.44 GB/FB rate) and limits HR’s(0.66 HR/9) at an elite rate. This Braves lineup has been elite vs left-handed pitching on the road, but the same can’t be said about how they’ve fared against righties. Since July 1st, Atlanta holds a pedestrian 107 wRC+ vs righties away from their home ballpark. Tonight marks the beginning of the Braves’ 3rd straight road series as well. I like Cobb to keep this Braves lineup at bay tonight.
