*MLB(1.5u): Red Sox TT OVER 4.5(+100) @ Mariners–3:10 PM CT
These teams find themselves in a battle for an AL Wild Card spot, with Boston currently 3 games ahead of the Mariners. These teams have split the first two games of this 3 game set, but luckily for Boston, I think they’ll have an advantageous matchup at the plate today. Seattle SP Marco Gonzales has turned a corner as of late, but overall this season has pitched below expectations. It’s important to note that he has faced just 1 opponent currently in the playoff race in his last 12 starts. Basically, he has drawn the easiest of matchups for about 2.5 months; while that helps his overall stats, it also leaves him unprepared entering this start against a dangerous Red Sox lineup. Even with Gonzales’s recent success, his FIP is still 1.35 runs higher than his ERA due to the fact that he has gotten lucky in leaving 82% of baserunners stranded. The Red Sox order is filled with righties who have had past success against Gonzales, and considering they’ve scored 12 runs through the first 2 games in this series, I’m willing to trust them in this spot tonight. While the Seattle bullpen has performed well this season, I do expect them to regress over the last few weeks of the season. Many of these guys have been asked to pitch in extended roles for about 2 months now, and I simply don’t think that’s sustainable. At even-money, I’m all over the Red Sox TT as my best bet tonight.
