The NBA is back! The All-Star break ends today with two humble games to reignite the NBA season. I missed it, to say the least. The “Association” has been a lovely cash cow for me and my followers as my picks are hitting at a clip of 60%, 71-47 since Feb 1. I’ve got exactly ONE free pick for Wednesday. Let’s keep it rollin’!
It’s a Southwest Division rematch as the Dallas Mavericks host the San Antonio Spurs at 8:30 EST tonight. The first matchup was pretty entertaining. Dallas controlled most of the game but the Spurs found a way to come back and nearly pull off the victory. Both teams shot the ball well: Dallas had an exceptional 48.4% field goal percentage and San Antonio shot 46.1%. San Antonio was also 42.9% from beyond the arc, which you would think might lead to a win. But a huge game from Luka Doncic, who had 36 points and 9 rebounds, was too much for San Antonio to overcome. Each of these Western Conference playoff teams are rated as average offenses and defenses, though Dallas has a slight advantage in offensive production and San Antonio has the more effective defense, allowing the 10th least ppg in the NBA.
As far as betting angles go, one stat really jumps out at me. San Antonio is one of the best road underdogs in the association. They have an ATS record of 6-1 (85.7%) in those scenarios. Meanwhile, as a home favorite, Dallas is one of the worst teams in the NBA at 4-10, an ATS win clip of only 28.6%. Yikes. I think this trend has an even better chance of repeating itself after a long layoff from the All-Star break. Greg Popovich gets extra days to game-plan and prepare his team? In the words of Lloyd Christmas- I’ll take it.
Another thing to remember is San Antonio’s starting point guard Dejounte Murray sprained his ankle in the game’s opening minutes the last time these two teams clashed. Murray is a key piece of the Spurs defense and will get Luka Doncic as his assignment. The Spurs, who lead the NBA in turnover ratio, only forced 5 turnovers in their first battle against the Mavericks. It was obvious Murray’s absence made a big difference. Expect the feisty, long guard to clamp down on Luka and force difficult shots from the Slovenian star. It also helps that LeMarcus Aldridge should return tonight, who’s questionable status just got erased from the injury report.
My first gut feeling was to go with the Mavericks, so I would give this some pause, but the trends and situational spot favor the Spurs. Bet with your brain not with your heart, right? The Mavs are more entertaining and have the more intriguing stars, but San Antonio is the more resilient and consistent unit.
Pick: Spurs +4.5 (-110), 1.5 units
