*CBB(1.5u): Wisconsin -4.5(-110) vs Iowa State–5:10 PM CT
I’ve been critical about Wisconsin plenty this year, but this is a spot where I see them having their way. Remember, Iowa State was a 2-win team last year that went winless in Big12 play before handing the reigns over to TJ Otzelberger. They got off to a very hot start in non-conference play, but over the last 2 months, this has not been a good basketball team. They got an easy draw in the 1st Round playing LSU, who had just fired their coach a few days prior and is in panic mode. The Cyclones’ offense runs through one guy: Isaiah Brockington. When he’s on, they can hang in games because they play tough defense. But man, when he’s not on his “A” game, games tend to get ugly. Just since February, ISU had a 41 point output vs Texas, a 36(!) point output vs Oklahoma State, and a 41 point output vs Texas Tech just last week. Wisconsin is well-coached with Greg Gard, and I trust Gard to deploy the proper gameplan and try to phase Brockington out of this game. Wisconsin gets stuck playing “iso ball” a bit too much for my liking offensively, but in this matchup, I think their talent will win out. It’s also worth noting that, with this game being in Milwaukee, this is a quasi-home game for the Badgers. Credit to Otzelberger for a good 1st year, but I think it ends in a loud way today. Badgers -4.5 is my best bet.
*CBB(1u): Texas/Purdue OVER 135(-110)–7:40 PM CT
Because of my fandom, I almost never give out my betting opinion on Texas games. However, I felt like I’d be doing a disservice if I didn’t play this given that I know what I do.
Purdue is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but facing off with Texas’ defense will be no cake walk. Even so, you have to assume the Boilermakers are able to hit some jumpshots today, and they have a huge mismatch on that end of the floor. Zach Edey is a good post player in his own right, but his greatest asset is his 7’4 frame. Texas’ starting center, Christian Bishop, is just 6’8(on a good day), and there isn’t a Longhorn taller than 6’10 that you’ll see on the floor. Obviously, Chris Beard will try to throw some tricks at Edey, but there is a huge advantage for Purdue down low nonetheless. Texas is not a great rebounding team to begin with, so given Purdue has the massive height advantage, second chance opportunities should be abundant for an already efficient offense. The path to victory for my Horns has to be to continue making shots. Texas put up 81 in their last game and shot 10/19 from deep; given this is one of the oldest rosters in the country that can get hot on that end of the floor, I don’t think this moment will be too big for them. Purdue is not good defensively; in fact, they’d likely have been the worst defense in the Big12 this season, so Texas should be able to find some success on that end of the floor. As of late, Texas has started to push the pace on fastbreak opportunities and will likely need to even more so tonight. I do think this will be a competitive game, and as I’ve layed out, the way we’re going to see that is via a higher-scoring game. This one should be played in the 70’s as opposed to the mid-60’s; I like the Over here.
