The BMW Championship – Preview & Picks

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After a crazy finish to The Northern Trust, Tony Finau wins his first tournament in over 1,900 days. Finau defeated Cameron Smith in a one hole playoff to capture the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

We had a bunch of guys (J. Thomas, V. Hovland, K. Na) near the top of the leaderboard heading into Monday but, none could get it done. We now move onto the BMW Championship where the Top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings will compete. After this week, the Top 30 Golfers will compete in the Tour Championship for a shot at the FedEx Cup Trophy.

The BMW Championship takes place at Caves Valley Golf Course, a course that has never hosted a PGA Tour event. It has hosted a few professional events in the past including the 2002 U.S. Senior Open and the LPGA International Crown Team Match Play event in 2014. It’s most recent professional event was back in 2017 when it hosted the Constellation Senior Players Championship on the Champions Tour.

Notable withdraws: Patrick Reed (pneumonia)

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: August 26, 2021- August 29, 2021
  • Location: Owings Mills, Maryland, United States
  • Course: Caves Valley Golf Club
  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,542 yards
  • Format: 72 hole stroke play
  • Field/ Cut: 70 Players | No Cut
  • Greens: Pure Distinction bentgrass .105″
  • Fairways: Penncross bentgrass .400″
  • Rough: Tell fescue/ ryegrass/ bluegrass 3″
  • Purse: $9,500,000 / Winner $1.71 Million
  • FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
  • Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet
  • Avg. Green Size: 5,200 sq. ft.
  • Water Hazards: 7 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
  • Stroke Average: N/A (New Course)

 

Course History:

“Les Disharoon – the former CEO of Monumental Corporation – had been trying to create a high-end club of his own since moving to the Baltimore area in 1977. But it wasn’t until 1986 that he bought 962 acres overlooking Caves Valley, just 20 minutes outside the city.

The course first opened in 1991 and just four years later was the site of the 1995 U.S. Mid-Amateur. Fazio originally designed a three-hole short course near the clubhouse with the idea that it could be a twilight loop for members after a long day at the office or even a quick practice loop. Nowadays the area is still maintained but primarily used as a range.

Incidentally, Fazio was also designing Conway Farms in Chicago at the same time, another former BMW Championship venue.” – Source

 

Course Guide:

“Caves Valley’s superintendent is Kyle Steidel, who was previously employed at Muirfield Village. Steidel has brought the work practices from Jack Nicklaus’ showpiece course in Ohio to Maryland, and has also leaned on the advice from Paul Latshaw, a former Muirfield Village Superintendent who now holds that position at the world-class Merion Golf Club.

The usual back nine will serve as the front side for this FedExCup Playoffs shootout with most holes framed by huge trees on both sides. The dense forest will be near impossible to escape in certain spots if wayward shots find their way into the timber.

Here we will also be spoiled by two dramatic par 3s – the third and fifth holes for the tournament – that play over ravines to narrow and well protected putting surfaces.

The usual front nine that will serve as the closing holes this week showcases more wide-open spaces but also some interesting water hazards. Nos. 11 and 12 of tournament week have large ponds flanking the right side of the hole while the par-3 13th is a long 221-yard hole that basically necessitates carrying a pond the entire hole.

The holes drop down in elevation early before finding a way back up towards the clubhouse with the finishing hole featuring a creek down the right side. High heat and humidity along with elevation changes will put a premium on fitness.

A recent renovation was undertaken to get the venue to PGA TOUR tournament standard and was a great success. For tournament week the bentgrass greens are expected to provide smooth, consistent putting conditions, having benefitted from extra aerification and topdressing over the past two years.

The bentgrass tees, fairways and approaches have also received extra maintenance and have a firm foundation. The rough inside the rope lines is newly established and is largely a combination of tall fescue and Kentucky bluegrass. The bunkers have excellent drainage and are filled with a premium sand supply.” – Source

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

  • Course Architect: Tom Fazzio (1991)
  • Renovation: Logan Fazzio (2020)
  • Comparable Courses:
    • Conway Farms
    • Quail Hollow
    • Shadow Creek Golf Course

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, August 26, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM –7:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, August 27, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, August 28, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
    • NBC** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, August 29, 2021
    • Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
    • NBC** – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: PM Thunderstorms 80 F, 5 mp/h ENE, 75% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: AM Thunderstorms 80 F, 8 mp/h S, 76% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Mostly Sunny 82 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 66% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: PM Thunderstorms 77 F, 9 mp/h SW, 67% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • Birdies or Better Gained

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2020: Jon Rahm (-4): Olympia Fields Country Club
    • Price: 10-1
  • 2019: Justin Thomas (-25): Medina Country Club
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20): Aronimink Golf Club
    • Price: 140-1
  • 2017: Marc Leishman (-23): Conway Farms Golf Club
    • Price: 45-1
  • 2016: Dustin Johnson (-23): Crooked Stick Golf Club
    • Price: 10-1

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Justin Thomas (+2000) – Caesars
    • Risk 0.40 to win 8.0 Units
  • Bryson Dechambeau (+2500)- BetMGM
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.0 Units
  • Rory McIlroy (+2800)- FanDuel
    • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
  • Jason Kokrak (+8000)- DraftKings
    • Risk 0.10 to win 8.0 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Joaquin Niemann (+150) – Draftkings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (TNT Matchups):

  • Corey Connors (+100) over Tony Finau
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Total Risk on Matchups: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on The BMW Championship: 3.11 Units

PGA Year to Date: +6.35 Units

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.