The FedEx St. Jude Championship – Preview & Picks

What an ending to the FedExCup regular season as 20-year-old, Joohyung (Tom) Kim wins the Wyndham Championship. He began the tournament with a quadruple-bogey (8) on the first hole and came from behind on Sunday shooting a final round of 61 to finish -20. With that win, he became the second-youngest since 1932 to win a Tour event.

This week, the three-event 2022 FedExCup Playoffs start at TPC Southwind with the inaugural FedEx St. Jude Championship. This event replaces The Northern Trust but, TPC Southwind is no stranger to hosting PGA Tour events. A regular season event has been held here every year since 1989. However, this will be the first time that TPC Southwind plays host to a playoff event.

Scottie Scheffler begins in the lead and will look to win his first FedExCup Championship. I won’t get too much into the format now but if you’re unfamiliar with it, I break it down a little later in the article. With all that being said, let’s get into the first event and see if we can build off our great regular season.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: August 11th, 2022 – August 14th, 2022
• Location: Memphis, Tennessee, USA
• Course: TPC Southwind
• Course Type: Technical
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,243 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Champion bermudagrass .090”
• Fairways: Meyer zoysiagrass .275”
• Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.5”
• Bunkers: 75
• Water Hazards: 11 (In-Play 11 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse: $15,000,000/ Winners share $2,700,000
• FedExCup Points: 2,000
• Field/ Cut: 125 Players| Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2021: 69.05 (-0.95), Rank 32 of 51
  • 2020: 69.56 (-0.44), Rank 14 of 41
  • 2019: 69.50 (-0.50), Rank 24 of 49

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, August 11th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 2 PM – 7 PM
• Round 2: Friday, August 12th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 3 PM – 7 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, August 13th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 1 PM – 3 PM
  • NBC – 3 PM – 6 PM
• Round 4, Sunday, August 14th , 2022
  • Golf Channel – 12 PM – 2 PM
  • NBC – 2 PM – 6 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: PM Thunderstorms 79 F, 8 mp/h NE, 76 % Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 10 mp/h NE, 64% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Sunny 77 F, 8 mp/h NE, 56% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Sunny 80 F, 5 mp/h S, 57% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

 

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.

The top 125 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 70 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

To see the current FedExCup Standings, you can click the following link.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989. This course has some rare bragging rights as it’s one of the only courses to host three different PGA Tour events. From 1989-2018, the FedEx St. Jude Classic was held here. In 2019, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational replaced that event and was relocated from Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. For the past three years, TPC Southwind has hosted that event.

TPC Southwind’s first major renovation took place in 2004 with the main goal of “modernizing” the course. The course was lengthened out adding 11 new tees, and 15 new bunkers while enlarging three ponds and adding some additional foliage. The greens were also changed from bentgrass to Champion bermudagrass.

In 2020, the course underwent a minor renovation with every bunker being re-contoured in some sort. Some were also added making the course a little more difficult.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship replaces the Northern Trust as the first stop in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This will be the first time that a FedExCup Playoff event has been held at this course.

72-Hole Record: 264, Brooks Koepka (2019), Abraham Ancer (2021), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Sam Burns (2021)

18-Hole Record: 61, Tom Lewis (3rd Rd, 2020), Bob Estes (1st Rd, 2001), Jay Delsing (4th Rd, 1993)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Southwind is a Par 70 that plays 7,243 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. It has some of the tightest fairways on Tour emphasizing accuracy off the tee rather than distance. The rough is extremely penal making an approach shot into these small bermudagrass greens even more difficult. It’s a course that you have to plot your way around holding back on certain holes and taking a more aggressive approach to others.

The four Par 3’s range between 162 yards and 195 yards. The two Par 3’s on the front nine, No. 4 and No. 8, both have scoring averages under par. However, the two Par 3’s on the back nine, No. 11 and No. 14, provide more of a challenge as they have scoring averages over par.

No. 11 is a smaller version of the famous 17th at TPC Sawgrass, but with its own uniqueness. Despite its lack of distance, it provides players with a challenge as they’re hitting onto an island green. The green is fairly open with just one pot bunker guarding the front edge.

No. 14 is the signature Par 3, which requires players to carry their tee shot over water onto a severely undulated green.

The twelve par 4’s on the course provide a challenge with only a few scoring opportunities depending on the tee shot. Holes No. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 17, and 18 all have a scoring average over par.

No. 9 is a long dogleg to the right with a downhill second shot over a lake in front of the green. Players will aim at the right side of the fairway in hopes of making their approach shot that much easier. It’s one of the holes that reward the bombers off the tee.

No. 18 is a fantastic finishing hole that again, rewards distance off the tee. It’s a dogleg left where water comes into play every shot. The body of water runs parallel to the fairway throughout the entire hole, making a solid tee shot critical.

The two Par 5’s, No. 3 and No. 16 are both gettable in two. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.

No. 3 features a downhill tee shot that will give players an extra roll. Off the tee, players will try to position it along the left side of the fairway providing themselves a better angle into the green. Their approach shot is difficult as a lake guards the right side with a pair of bunkers on the left.

No. 16 is a dogleg left and the shorter of the two Par 5’s. As long as players are in the fairway off the tee, they’ll have a fairly easy shot into the green. A large bunker complex does surround the green and will come into play more if the pin is in the back left.

Featured Holes: 9, 11, 14, 18

HOLE	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	OUT
PAR	4	4	5	3	4	4	4	3	4	35
YARDAGE	434	401	579	196	485	445	482	171	457	3,650

HOLE	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	IN
PAR	4	3	4	4	3	4	5	4	4	35
YARDAGE	465	162	406	472	205	395	530	505	453	3,593

 

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Scrambling
• Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

We have 121 Players in the field out of the possibly 125 that have qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Several LIV players who have qualified for the playoffs have a hearing Tuesday as they asked for an exemption in taking part in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Since its inception in 2007, only two have qualified for the FedEx Cup Playoffs each season (16 consecutive seasons), Matt Kuchar and Adam Scott.

Rory McIlroy (+1100), is the odds-on favorite this week to win at TPC Southwind. He’s played at this course five times over his career finishing inside the top 20 twice, in 2012 and 2019. In 2021, he finished T12 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The last time we saw Rory compete was at The Open Championship where he finished a disappointing 3rd. Rory last missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open in April. Since then, he’s played in eight events never finishing worse than T19.

Scottie Scheffler (+1400), has the most wins on Tour this season with four. Just like Rory, Scheffler hasn’t competed since The Open Championship where he finished T21. Scottie has played at TPC Southwind four times before finishing T15 and T14 in the past two years. Before that, he missed the cut in his debut here (2014) and finished T43 in 2018.

Patrick Cantlay (+1600), won the FedExCup Playoffs last season and will look to become just the third player to win it multiple times. He has a pretty solid course history here, finishing T12, T30, and T12 in his three editions. Cantlay hasn’t won an individual event on Tour this season as his lone win this season was with Xander Schauffele in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Despite the lack of wins, he’s been playing pretty well as of late making the cut in every event since the PGA Championship. In those six events, he’s never finished worse than T14.

Cam Smith (+1600), rumored to be joining the rival LIV Tour, has yet to confirm the move and will compete in the FedExCup Playoffs. We last saw Cam Smith come roaring back on Sunday at St. Andrews to win The Open Championship. That was his third victory of the season as he also won THE PLAYERS Championship and, the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He’s played at TPC Southwind four times before with his best finish coming last year, T5. In his other three editions, he finished MC/ T12/ T59.

Xander Schauffele (+1800), is one of the hottest golfers on Tour right now. He won the Travelers Championship and then followed that up with a win at Genesis Scottish Open. Following those back-to-back victories, he finished T15 at The Open Championship, which is the last event he’s competed in. Xander has played at TPC Southwind four times before finishing T52/ T27/ T6/ T46.

Justin Thomas (+1800), hasn’t been great following his victory at the PGA Championship. In his five events since then, he’s missed the cut twice and has finished 3/ T37/ T53 in the other three events. Despite his inconsistency, he does have a great course history winning here in 2020. In his other two appearances at TPC Southwind, he finished T12 and T26.

Previous Winners in the field (@ TPC Southwind); Justin Thomas

Notable Withdraws: Tommy Fleetwood (Personal), Lanto Griffin (Injury), Daniel Berger (Injury), Nate Lashley (Injury),

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses For Courses:

Chez Reavie (+12500), has played at TPC Southwind seven times prior. During that span, he has only missed the cut once here, which was in his debut. In his six other appearances since then, he has never finished worse than T27. Full placements at TPC Southwind; MC/T27/T12/T4/T6/T27/T6.

Webb Simpson (+12500), has played at TPC Southwind eight times before. In his last five starts here, he has finished T3/MC/T2/T12/T15.

Other players who’ve had success here:

• Rory McIlroy – (T29/T7/T4/T47/T12)
• Matthew Fitzpatrick – (T4/T6/T57)
• Hideki Matsuyama – (T43/T20/2)
• Justin Thomas – (T12/1/T26)
• Shane Lowry – (T30/T6/T23)
• Seamus Power – (T27/T12)
• Andrew Putnam – (MC/T2/T24)
• Billy Horschel – (MC/MC/T72/T10/T6/T8/T4/T51/T9/T25/T17)

 

Previous Winners/ Scores (TPC Southwind):

• 2021: Abraham Ancer (-21) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
• 2020: Justin Thomas (-13) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
• 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19) – (FedEx St. Jude Classic)
• 2017: Daniel Berger (-10) – (FedEx St. Jude Classic)

 

Previous Winners/ Scores (1st Rd FedExCup Playoffs):

• 2021: Tony Finau (-20) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 60-1
• 2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – TPC Boston (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 20-1
• 2019: Patrick Reed (-16) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 55-1
• 2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-18) – Ridgewood Country Club (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 100-1
• 2017: Dustin Johnson (-13) – Glen Oaks Club (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 14-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Patrick Cantlay (+1800) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

Patrick Cantlay has been tending towards a win for about the past six weeks now. To be fair, he did win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Xander Schauffele. However, he hasn’t won an individual event on Tour this season. In his last six starts on Tour, he’s finished T3/T14/T13/T4/T8/T2. He also has a pretty solid course history here, finishing T12, T30, and T12 in his three editions.

In terms of recent form, there isn’t anyone better on Tour. He’s gained strokes in nearly every category in his last six starts. His approach play has been peaking gaining over a stroke in that category in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cantlay’s putting has also been out of this world gaining over a stroke on the green in five of his last six starts! As I mentioned before he hasn’t won yet but given his form, course history, and fit, he should be a contender.

• Will Zalatoris (+2800) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units

Willy Z has three runner-up finishes this season and will look to capture his first victory on Tour at TPC Southwind. He’s played well in big events this year finishing 2nd in the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. In his last three starts, he’s finished T28/T20/T21. Zalatoris has played here once before finishing T8 last year.

The kryptonite for Zalatoris’ game has been his putting, ranking 120th in strokes gained. Despite that he’s been trending in the right direction, gaining strokes in three of his past five events. This course screams Willy Z given his ranks in approach, off the tee, and tee to green. The tiny green complexes suit his ball striking ability. If he can get hot with the flat stick he should be near the top of the leaderboard come late Sunday. Zalatoris will also have a new caddy on the bag this week in Joel Stock.

• Sam Burns (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

Just like Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns’ ball-striking should allow him to do well at TPC Southwind. He has three wins this season including the Sanderson Farms Championship, Valspar Championship, and the Charles Schwab Challenge. As of late, he’s struggled a bit finishing T42 in The Open Championship and T66 in the Genesis Scottish Open. To be fair, those were links-style courses that historically haven’t suited him. He’s played at TPC Southwind twice before missing the cut in 2015 and losing to Abraham Ancer in a playoff last season.

Sam Burns ranks highly in approach (13th), putting (10th), and tee to green (24th). He has the distance off the tee with his accuracy being inconsistent. As of late, he’s been lights out on the green gaining strokes in each of his last six events. His iron play has been consistent with his short game struggling a bit.

Last season when he finished 2nd here, he wasn’t nearly in as good of form. So with his game improving, I think he should have a great shot.

• Sungjae Im (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

A lot of golf twitter was on Sungjae Im last week at the Wyndham Championship. He would go on to finish T2 behind “Tom” Kim. Im has now finished runner-up in his last two tournaments and returns to TPC Southwind, a course he’s played twice before. In 2020, he finished T35 and last year would finish T46.

Sungjae ranks highly in several strokes gained categories including off the tee (9th), around the green (7th), and tee to green (10th). His two areas of concern are his approach play and putting. However, in his last two starts, he’s gained strokes in both of those categories.

• Billy Horschel (+5000) – Bet365
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Billy Horschel won the Memorial Tournament back in June and struggled in his two events following that victory, missing the cut in each. However, in his most recent two tournaments, he’s finished T21 and T27. Horschel has played at TPC Southwind eleven times before with the following results; MC/MC/T72/T10/T6/T8/T4/T51/T9/T25/T17.

While Billy Horschel isn’t known for having the best iron play, he does rank well in several other key categories. To be fair though, he has gained strokes on approach in four of his last six starts. He’s strong off the tee ranking 36th in strokes gained and while he’s not a bomber, he is extremely accurate. Horschel’s putting has always been one of his strong suits that allows him to compete each week. He also has a fondness for the Bermudagrass greens.

Just missed Outrights: Scottie Scheffler (+1500-FanDuel), Viktor Hovland (+4000-BetMGM)

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.36 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (+105) – Bet365
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units

Matthew Fitzpatrick has been on a tear following his win at The Country Club in the U.S. Open. Following up that win, he finished T6 at the Genesis Scottish Open and T21 at The Open Championship. He ranks well in every strokes gained category with the one outlier being putting. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in each of his last four events. He’s only lost strokes in one category (Around the Green) in those four events.

He’s played at TPC Southwind three times before finishing T4/T6/T57. His elite ball-striking makes him a great fit for this course. Fitzpatrick’s accuracy off the tee should set him up nicely for his approach shots on these small greens.

When looking at other books, they have this number around -140/-150 so getting it at +105 is a great value.

• Jordan Spieth (+150) – Bet365
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Jordan Spieth last played over-seas in The Open Championship finishing T8. The week before in the Genesis Scottish Open, he played well finishing T10. Historically Jordan’s downfall has been his putting however, in both of those events he gained strokes on the green. If we look at a larger sample size, he’s gained strokes putting in five of his last six events. In the one event (U.S. Open) where he lost strokes, he only lost -0.09.

Since his win at the RBC Heritage back in April, he’s only missed one cut at the Travelers Championship. Besides, that missed cut, he hasn’t finished worse than T37 with five top-20 finishes.

He’s played TPC Southwind four times before. He made his debut here way back in 2010, where he missed the cut. He didn’t play here for several years before making his return in 2019 where he finished T12. In 2020, he finished T30, and last season he finished T12 again.

The combination of his course history and improvement on the green makes me think he’ll do well here. We all know he’s great with his approach play, only losing strokes in that category in only three of his last eleven tournaments.

Just missed T20 Placements: Justin Thomas (+100 – Bet365)

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Max Homa (-105) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.05 to win 1.00 Units

Before I get into my reasoning here, this is another value play. Most other books have him around -135/-140 for a top-40 finish this week.

Max Homa has played at TPC Southwind five times before without much success. In those five appearances, he finished T66/T85/T61/T52/T51. If we’re looking for positives in his course history, he has been trending in the right direction in his last three starts here.

To be honest the course history doesn’t concern me that much as we’ve seen Max take a major step forward with his game this season. In his 21 PGA Tour starts this season, he’s only missed the cut three times. During that span, he’s also won twice. Since his victory at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has finished inside the top 40 in five of his last seven starts.

Homa ranks well in each of the key categories this week with the only outlier being his play around the green. If we look at a recent sample size of his short game, he’s gained strokes in that category in four of his last five tournaments.

• Chez Reavie (+170) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units

Just like other plays this week, we’re getting a great number on Chez Reavie here. DraftKings has him at +110 for a T40 finish.

He won the Barracuda Championship last month and followed that up with a T49 finish at the 3M Open and T47 finish at the Wyndham Championship. In his last nine tournaments, he’s only missed the cut twice along with five top-40 finishes during that span.

Chez Reavie has played at TPC Southwind seven times prior. During that span, he has only missed the cut once here, which was in his debut. In his six other appearances since then, he has never finished worse than T27. Full placements at TPC Southwind; MC/T27/T12/T4/T6/T27/T6.

This is a guy that just loves this course as seen by his success here. I understand that we have a much stronger field than those tournaments but he fits the course mold extremely well and is in solid form. The concern for Reavie has always been his putting but he’s still done well here even when losing strokes on the green. In 2020, he lost over a stroke putting and still managed to finish T6. The last time he gained strokes putting at TPC Southwind was back in 2018.

Just missed T40 Placements: Adam Long (+185 – FanDuel)

Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.05 Units

 

Total Risk on The FedEx St Jude Championship: 5.41 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.