*CBB(1u): South Dakota State/Providence OVER 148.5(-110)–11:40 AM CT
This game has garnered a lot of hype this week, with South Dakota State catching a lot of public love. While I don’t want to back them in a pick-em type spot against a team that wins close games, I have little doubt that South Dakota State is going to show up offensively. This team’s offensive numbers aren’t just good, they’re elite. 52.5 FG%, 44.9 3PT%, and 75.9 FT%… those numbers are unheard of, folks. Providence’s defensive metrics slipped considerably towards the end of the season, as they’re all the way down to 79th in defensive efficiency. The JackRabbits really like to push the pace, and even if the efficiency is down a little bit, they’re still going to score. As sure as I am that SDSU can stay in this game offensively, I’m equally as sure that they are totally outmatched on the defensive end of the floor. The Jack Rabbits rank just 220th in defensive efficiency and don’t have anywhere near the amount of needed physicality to stop the Friars. Providence doesn’t even have great overall shooting metrics, yet they still rank 31st in offensive efficiency. That tells me this team knows how to score in more ways than one, and that’s going to be even more true in a matchup where they have the major physicality edge. I know this total seems high for an Opening Round game, but it does not do justice to how these teams truly will match up. In South Dakota State’s 4 “biggest” non-conference games, the amount of points scored were as follows: 192, 177, 163, 156. Rather than trust the Jack Rabbits with the side, I am looking towards this Over to get things started for us.
*CBB(1u): Baylor -20.5(-110) vs Norfolk State–1 PM CT
Public sentiment is down on Baylor a little bit after they didn’t finish off the season the way you’d expect a defending champion to, but if anything, that’d lead to a greater sense of urgency to get the tournament started off in dominant fashion. In all honesty, I’m really not worried about this Baylor team now that we’re in March; they’ve had plenty of time to adjust to some key injuries, depth is overrated in this time of the year anyway, and the guys they have on the floor are still really damn good. There are no off-nights playing in the Big 12, and Baylor only fell victim to losses in some tough spots. This is anything but that. First of all, this game takes place in Fort Worth, which is just a short hike from Waco and a quasi-home game for the Bears. Second of all, Norfolk State very well might be the weakest team still left in the tournament after A&M Corpus Christi was eliminated on Tuesday. The Spartans have quite literally no edges on Baylor entering this matchup except for “experience”; even then, Norfolk State ranks just 247th in continuity, meaning these veteran imports really haven’t played that much basketball together. We saw the Spartans play only 1 Power 6 team in their non-conference schedule, which resulted in a 40 point-loss at Xavier(who didn’t make the tournament). Last year, Norfolk State lost by 40 to Gonzaga in this same 1/16 matchup. This is a lot of points in any matchup, but I really think Baylor can name their score here. Unlike some other 1 seeds who might be a little fat and happy, Baylor should have a sense of urgency to come out hot and dominate this game from start to finish.
*CBB(1u): North Carolina -3.5(-110) vs Marquette–3:30 PM CT
I’ve classified North Carolina as one of my tougher teams to handicap, while I’ve actually liked backing Marquette. From a blind eye and with no research involved, I might’ve wanted to be on the Golden Eagles in this one. However, after really digging into how these teams match up, I couldn’t feel differently. North Carolina is undeniably in better current form entering the tournament after winning 8 of their last 10 games. Marquette, on the other hand, went just 4-6 over their last 10 games after getting hot in January. All in all, it’s been a successful year 1 for Shaka Smart, but these last 10 games have shown that the Golden Eagles are still a work in progress. This is one of the 10 youngest teams in the country that is probably going to need at least another year to be ready to win in this tournament. While UNC Head Coach Hubert Davis is in his 1st year as HC, he was the head assistant under Roy Williams for 10 years and recruited every single player on this Tar Heels roster. Big difference if you ask me. The ultimate mismatch in this game is going to come on the boards. North Carolina ranks 2nd in defensive rebounding percentage, while Marquette grabs offensive rebounds at just the 341st best rate. On the defensive end, Marquette still only ranks 316th in rebounding percentage. Marquette will have to shoot extremely well to compete in this game, and when you really look at their splits, you realize that’s really not where they excel. Shaka has this team playing feisty defense, but UNC is extremely efficient from beyond the arc and from the foul line. I believe this is what we like to call a straight-up mismatch; I like UNC to take care of business here.
*CBB(1u): New Mexico State/UCONN 1H UNDER >60–5:50 PM CT
For clarification, as of this writing(late Wednesday night), 1st Half lines have not been released on my books. However, given the total is in the low 130’s, we’ll almost certainly get a 1H total north of 60, meaning this will be an official play for me.
In all honesty, I think New Mexico State is one of the more live ‘dogs here in this Thursday slate. The Aggies have the size and rebounding acumen to match up well with the Huskies down low, and they play a good brand of defense as well. UCONN simply doesn’t get it done for me offensively, as this team shoots just 43.6% from the floor. Combine that with their slow pace, and I think we get a relatively low output from them early in this game. With that said, UCONN sets up very well defensively to completely stimmy this NMSU offense. The Huskies block shots at the 2nd highest rate in the country, meaning the Aggies are likely going to need to rely on outside shooting more than usual in this one. That’s unfortunate given they shoot less than 33% from the outside. NMSU ranks just 223rd in pace themselves, meaning this should set up to be a good ‘ole rock fight. This should be one of the uglier games on tap for Thursday, but we’ll take advantage of that by playing this 1H Under at anything north of 60.
