Main Event:
Jorge Masvidal +210 vs Kamaru Usman -235 –
This should be a great main even here. Jorge Masvidal took 2018 off after 2 losses against some great opponents in 2017 but he came back and won his last three fights including beating up a tough Nate Diaz at the end of 2019. Kamaru Usman winning all the bouts in his UFC career and the last 15 in a row counting other leagues is superb. Lots of people are on Mastival here and I like him for the most part as well. Even tho he is a nice dog, there may be a better way to play him. I think rather than taking the +200 on him, I have a better idea to get better odds and have a nice out if Usman wins. Kamaru Usman hasn’t lost a fight since 2013 which was in the CFA and 8 out of his last 10 fights went to a decision in a very defensive style so I think that there is a great chance that if he wins, it will go to decision and that price is at +140. I also love the fact Masvidal’s last 9 losses all went to decision. On the other side of the coin, Jorge’s last 5 wins all involve a KO or TKO and that price is a sweet +315. Jorge Masvidal’s aggressive style of fighting has led his fights to an average time of 12:53 seconds and this will be a 25 minute fight being that it’s for the welterweight championship. Masvidal does not seem to get submitted being that it has been since 2009 since that happened. Ironically, 2009 was also the same year that Jorge was actually able to submit someone himself. Jorge’s takedown average is 1.16 every 15 minutes so you know that he doesn’t like trying to get people to the ground. I do not see any problem putting a unit on a very hungry Jorge Masvidal at +315 as well for the fat part of the play.
Prop play: Usman to win by decision +140 – 1 star and Masvidal to win by KO/TKO +315 – 1 star premium shared
Free Play:
Jiri Prochazka +135 vs Volkan Oezdemir -145 –
This is Jiri’s first bout in the UFC but I think he has a legitimate shot vs Volkan. Jiri has won 10 fights in a row with ease in the Rizin league which includes a few ex-UFC athletes in Fabio Maldonado and CB Dollaway. Jiri is hungry. Volkan is a great fighter but something is wrong with him right now. He only won 2 of his last 5 bouts and struggled his last fight win against a guy in Aleksandar Rakic who hasn’t really fought anyone. I like the plus money but not super confident so only a half star.
Jiri prochazka -135 – .5 star free lay
