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54% all time NFL sides and totals! 9.5% ROI
56% all time College Football sides and totals! 12% ROI
54% lifetime sides and totals in College Basketball – 1% ROI
48% lifetime UFC on all plays 13.5% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Amanda Nunes vs Juliana Pena +225
Ok, this is the rematch between who some call the GOAT of at least women’s MMA and the woman who beat her back in December 2021. Now this line is a massive shift from -1000 for Nunes down to -280 and I have to ask myself why the huge market discrepancy? Now Amanda was clearly out of shape for her Pena fight, and it showed when she uncharacteristically tapped on a weak submission attempt in the middle of the second round on a three round fight. Why did that happen? Well, Amanda went through a lot of life changes. She got married to Nina Nunes and they had a child together through in vitro fertilization. I having kids myself know quite well how much that it is the largest distraction from work that you could ever possibly imagine. Anyways, how much are we going to punish Amanda for this? $8 of line value seems quite steep and especially in a sport where everyone loses. Lets look at the metrics. These two women have similar stats and you have to give the striking advantage to Amanda’s at 4.55 to Pena’s 3.36, while giving the Wrestling advantage to Pena. In saying that, the strength of schedule very very much in favor of Nunes being that she is the only woman to beat Valentina Shevchenko twice as well as all of the other top contenders in the Bamtam weight class. Pena, before her Nunes fight, had her best win against against Sara McMann and then lost two out of her last three fights before that to submission if you can believe that. The final part of this handicap is Pena’s weakness that nobody is talking about. Juliana’s take down defense is a pathetic 22% which means if Amanda has any brains, she will just start taking her down all fight until she is warn out enough to chase a submission. Nunes needs to protect her gas-tank here, and she can’t blow her strength out like she did in the first round in the last fight. Nunes take down defense is a strong 82% so I am ok if Pena tries to shoot. I think the last fight was an anomaly, and Pena has never went past a 3rd round in a fight. I am going to take Nunes ITD and by submission.
Nunes ITD -135 – 2 stars
Nunes by submission +550 – 1 star
Bonus Play: The whole perception of the Black beast and Sergei Pavlovich is that they finish their fights and/or get beaten early. Well, that is mainly true when they are fighting inferior opponents but I think that both of these fighters respect each other enough to get past. 1.5 rounds. Sergei trains at Eagles MMA which has a huge focus on wrestling/grappling and having two large humans on the ground can really push the clock here.
Lewis/Pavlovich over 1.5 rounds – 1 star
