Members are 3-1 for Round 1 of the Tournament with covers for Belmont, Murray St and Oregon, which was our Best Play of Round 1. Took a loss with Cincinnati but it was a small one as I told Members this was of some concern but had to back Cincy with Iowa have three 20 point losses in the last 3 weeks. Still a nice start.
No. 6 Villanova vs No. 3 Purdue 8:40 pm
Pick: Villanova +4/Normal (bought ½ point)
Purdue is not playing their best ball right now and they do not feel like a team that will be in the Sweet 16.
I probably would have had this closer to a Pick’em situation. I personally would have had Nova as the favorite at -1 or so just looking at numbers and recent play but with the seeding, that can not happen. -3.5 seems like a lot to be backing Purdue right now.
Purdue beat ODU by 13. ODU shot 26% from the field and only attempted 6 free throws. They outrebounded Purdue. Purdue is shooting only 38% on the road. They have 2 losses to Minnesota in their last 4 games on neutrall/road sites. They had narrow road wins over struggling Nebraska and Indiana teams and a 14 point loss at a slightly overrated Maryland team.
Edwards leads the Boilers in scoring but shoots only 38%.
Both of these teams are pretty good defensively.
Nova isn’t ODU. They also are not the powerhouse Nova team from recent years but are winning closer games. They have won 4 straight neutral site game and have won 6 of 7 overall. Villanova shoots 45% on the road and has been a better FT shooting team than Purdue, particularly on the road. Villanova is 5-0 ATS as a dog this season. I like the combination of Booth and Paschall for Villanova and Samuels has scored in double figures in 4 of his last 5 games while notching 7 or more rebounds in 7 straight games.
I like Villanova here. Will be surprised if they do not win this straight up.
VILL are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten
PUR are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big East
