We started off the CFB season with a 1-0, +1.5u Week 0! Last year, I hit at a 55% clip in CFB(106-88-1) and netted +27.35u.
I will roll my full card out throughout the week, but I have locked in 4 plays to date that I would classify as my “best bets”.
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*CFB(1.5u): Boston College -7(-110) vs Rutgers–Sat 9/3; 11 AM CT
This was worthy of being a 2u play, but since I am going to have Boston College involved in a ML Parlay, I decided to stick with this as a 1.5u.
Boston College was poised for a breakthrough 2021 season until QB Phil Jurkovec went down early in the season to an injury. Down with him went Boston College’s chances to move the football as backup QB Dennis Grosel was truly one of the worst QB’s in the country. Jurkovec came back from injury before he was ready because that’s how desperate the Golden Eagles were for steady QB play. With a full offseason of recovery, I think Jurkovec is one of the breakout candidates you have to watch for in CFB. It won’t all fall on Jurkovec’s shoulders, however; RB Phil Garwo had a 1,000 yard season a year ago at an efficient 5.1 YPC. I expect that efficiency to uptick with a viable passer back in the fold. Jurkovec also has a plethora of options on the outside, led by difference-maker Zay Flowers.
While Boston College’s OL is young, I don’t think this is the type of matchup where they’ll get exploited. Greg Schiano has done a solid job in his attempt at rebuilding Rutgers, but he’s still too early into the gig to have this team where it needs to be in the trenches. While their pass rushing was set to be a strength entering this year, that dream took a hit when they lost EDGE piece Mohamed Toure to a season-ending knee injury in fall camp. The Scarlet Knights also project to be pretty weak at the LB level; not only does that give Garwo a favorable matchup, but it also allows Jurkovec and his weapons to take advantage in the RPO/intermediate passing game.
What ultimately makes me so strong in this play is my belief that Boston College’s defense can dominate this game. Jeff Hafley is a defensive-minded HC that led this unit to being one of the top 5 passing defenses in the country a year ago. Yes, they need to be better against the run… or do they(in this matchup)? Rutgers had not one RB over 4 YPC last year, and with the OL figuring to be a weakness once again, I think Boston College’s run defense will hold up well. Schiano has kept his QB decision close to the vest, but it’s pretty inconsequential to me. I hope that Noah Vedral gets the nod given he threw for just 6.2 Y/A a year ago and has a 1:1 TD/INT ratio over his career. Gavin Wismatt is the much higher-upside player, but why would I trust him in his first collegiate start against one of the best passing defenses in America?
I thought about isolating the Rutgers TT UNDER here, but I am staunch in my belief that Jurkovec and this offense are set to overperform expectations in a pretty big way.
*CFB(1.5u): Oregon/Georgia UNDER 53.5(-110)–Sat 9/3; 2:30 PM CT
It has been well-publicized that Georgia lost many of their best defensive players from last year’s record-setting team to the NFL. While I certainly do not expect this defense to be as dominant as last year’s was(how could they be?), this will almost certainly still be one of the best defenses in the country. Kirby Smart rotates his DL quite a bit, meaning the guys stepping into starting roles there already have quite a bit of experience at this level. OLB and pass rushing as a whole figures to be a strength, as does secondary with Kelee Ringo manning the CB1 spot and a pair of very reliable safeties. Bo Nix transferred to Oregon only to have to make his first start as a Duck against a team that’s haunted him over his college career. Nix is a mobile guy that has shined at times, but he’s an incredibly inconsistent passer. Perhaps that changes with his move to the Pac-12(I’d lean towards it not changing), but at just 7.1 Y/A last year, I don’t see Nix beating Georgia through the air. Oregon’s WR are young, meaning I think their best football comes later in the season. Oregon RB Byron Caldwell shined as a freshman in more of a secondary role, but we’ve yet to see how he adjusts to being more of a bell cow back. With Georgia being so steady at that OLB spot, I think this Georgia D can limit Caldwell’s HR ability and force Georgia into some obvious passing downs.
There aren’t very many teams built to match Georgia’s physicality, but Oregon very well might be one of them. Even with the loss of Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon’s DL is supremely talented thanks to former HC Mario Cristobal putting so much stock into recruiting the trenches. LB Noah Sewell might be one of the best 2nd-level players in CFB, and his counterpart Justin Flowe could’ve taken his talents to any school in America. While Oregon did lose one of their key CB’s from last year’s team, I still have high expectations for this mostly experienced secondary. I say all this to say: This is an SEC-caliber opponent for Georgia’s offense. I’ve sung the praises of QB Stetson Bennett all offseason(being over 10 Y/A doesn’t go unnoticed), and this is obviously a team that’ll be stout along their OL. Still, I do think Oregon can limit the effectiveness of the Bulldogs’ running game and take advantage of some of the inexperience at that position. Georgia has the best TE room in the country(and it’s not close), but they lose a lot of WR production off of last year’s team.
Ultimately, pace is a big consideration with this play. Georgia ran less than 64 plays/game last year(119th in CFB), and given my concerns with Oregon’s passing game, they should be able to play this game at their pace. Still, Oregon has the jimmies-and-joes to match up as well as any with the defending National Champ. I expect Georgia to win comfortably, but in rather low-scoring fashion.
*CFB(1.5u): BYU/South Florida UNDER 58(-110)–Sat 9/3; 3 PM CT
I’m very high on BYU this year, but this is not a game where you’ll see them throw out the kitchen sink offensively. The Cougars host Baylor in Provo next weekend, a game they are absolutely looking ahead to. Last year, we saw this same scenario play out. BYU hosted rival Utah at home in Week 2 but first needed to take care of business against lowly Arizona. Rather than reveal all his cards, Kalani Sitake was comfortable with a 24-16 win in which BYU was content with playing ball control in the 2nd Half.
South Florida got a sizable upgrade in their QB room with the addition of former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon. Bohanon was a great game-manager for Baylor last year, but this is a completely different role that I have my doubts about. Bohanon had a great run game at his disposal last year, something he almost certainly won’t have at South Florida. Baylor’s OL was also very steady, whereas the Bulls have gotten routinely manhandled up front in their tougher matchups under HC Jeff Scott. If Gerry Bohanon was truly a game-changing QB threat, Dave Aranda wouldn’t have named him the backup after spring ball and let him transfer out of the program. BYU has a very trustworthy back 7 that I expect to limit chunk plays.
BYU QB Jaren Hall is a very undervalued commodity in my opinion, but BYU’s run game will almost certainly regress after losing Ty Allgeier. Christopher Brooks from California was a solid pick up, but I don’t think he’s much of a threat to break off splash runs consistently.
BYU ranked 100th in pace last year and will want to get this game over as quickly as possible.
*CFB(1u): Coastal Carolina ML(-130) vs Army–Sat 9/3; 6 PM CT
This is obviously not a multi-unit play, but I see enough value here to include it with my other best bets.
I don’t think people realize just how efficient this Coastal Carolina offense was last year. QB Grayson McCall is the centerpiece of a pseudo-option offense that left opposing defenses in shambles. The Chants’ top 2 projected RB’s both averaged over 7 YPC last year(that’s not a typo), and McCall is a huge threat with his legs. While you might think Army would be prepared to face a run-heavy attack, that idea gets negated when you consider McCall’s acumen as a passer. In 2021, McCall completed 73% of his passes at over 12 Y/A(!) and recorded a near 8:1 TD/INT ratio. While he loses a lot of playmakers on the outside, if you were to watch Coastal Football, you would know that a lot of their vertical passing hits are schemed open more than anything. Army is replacing a lot of production at the LB position and didn’t show the acumen in their pass defense a year ago to where I think they can keep CCU off the field.
Army obviously runs a very old-school, option-style offense. Given how rare this style is in CFB, it can be hard to know how opposing defenses adjust the the one-off nature of facing the Black Knights. Coastal’s defense might’ve underperformed a year ago, but I do expect to see progression from this group. If anything, facing the CCU offense throughout spring ball and fall camp should make the Chants feel comfortable with how they match up with Army. Army is breaking in a new starter at QB(he does have experience but has seldom started), and I view their OL as a bit of a question mark entering 2022.
Seeing Coastal Carolina’s TT under 30 made a play on the OVER appealing, but this is going to be a super quick game where possessions are few and far in between. If you don’t believe me, go watch Army vs Oklahoma back in 2018 where the Black Knights kept Kyler Murray off the field all night. With all that said, CCU is so efficient offensively that, combined with my concerns surrounding Army’s O early in the season, I think we’re getting too much value to pass up backing a proven winner at home under the lights.
