In addition to these free plays, I also have 5 premium plays up(all multi-unit plays) for this loaded Week 1 slate. Subscribe at https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/ by selecting “Michael Fordham” as your handicapper.
*CFB(1u): Duke/Charlotte OVER 60.5–Friday 6 PM CT
Duke had a wretched 2020 season, but the lone bright spot came when they dismantled Charlotte by a score of 53-19. Duke’s season was plagued by turnovers; with QB Chase Brice out of the program, the hope is that new QB Gunnar Holmberg can limit mistakes and keep Duke sustaining drives. Holmberg has been in the program for 4 years, and in limited time, he’s played very well. David Cutcliffe is still a great offensive mind, and Duke plays at a fast enough pace to where I think they’ll have plenty of opportunities to light up the scoreboard tonight. That said, Charlotte is going to enter this game with a massive chip on their shoulder coming off of last year’s embarrassment. I like Will Healy as a HC, and he’s got a lot of experience and talent to work with offensively. Duke has concerns on the DL and in the secondary, so I think Healy and the 49ers will have matchups they can exploit with their talent on the perimeter. This is an Over game any way I look at it.
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): North Carolina ML/Clemson ML(+143)–must be placed by Friday 5 PM CT
I understand that you have to respect Virginia Tech as a program, but I really don’t see UNC having much trouble winning this game tonight. You’re not going to find a better QB in this sport than Sam Howell, and while he lost both his RB’s and some dynamic WR threats, they still return plenty of talent and also hit the transfer market to snag RB Ty Chandler from Tennessee. Virginia Tech expects improvement on defense this season, but it’s important to remember that UNC dropped 56 points on the Hokies last season. I also think UNC’s defense will be improved, and they’ll have a favorable matchup squaring off with this Hokie offense. I have zero trust that QB Braxton Burmeister is ready to trade points with the likes of Sam Howell, especially considering the questions VT is having at WR. The line seems fishy to me, so I’ll just roll with the Tar Heels to win the game.
While the high expectations for Georgia are warranted, I’m not willing to trust them in this type of game until they expand their playbook offensively. They can get to where they want to be if they become a pass-first offense, but overly conservative play-calling will continue to hold them back. I’ll believe they’ve turned a corner when I see it. DJ Uiagalelei acquired some much-needed experience in 2 close games last season and should be ready for this kind of spotlight. Clemson returns 10 starters defensively and is set up well against a Georgia offense that is down 2 key weapons(Pickens, Gilbert). I’ll take Clemson as the second leg of this ML Parlay(more on this game below).
*CFB(1u): Kansas State -3(-120) vs Stanford–Saturday 11 AM CT
I’m high on Kansas State this season with Skylar Thompson(30 career starts) back healthy at QB. Pair that experience with a dynamic RB in Deuce Vaughn, and I think the Wildcats could prove a lot of the doubters wrong this season. Stanford was horrid defensively last season(particularly in stopping the run), and they are very thin across the board heading into 2021. Kansas State runs a methodical style of play, but they’re typically very efficient. Stanford will turn to either Jack West or Tanner McKee at QB; neither have starting experience at the college level, which I think proves to be the difference in this one. I’ll take the Wildcats by a touchdown.
*CFB(1u): Marshall/Navy UNDER 47(-110)–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Marshall got off to a scorching hot start this season before imploding in their final 3 games. They now have a completely new coaching staff(expect offensive coordinator) and figure to run a new, up-tempo style of offense. Grant Wells had a rollercoaster 2020 season, and I’m not willing to trust him quite yet considering the new system in place. Navy had a bad 2020, but you have to factor in that they weren’t even allowed to tackle in fall camp, leaving them way behind the 8 ball. With a full offseason, I think Navy returns to typical form this season. Triple option teams always run a lot of clock and limit the amount of opportunities the opposing offense gets(just ask 2018 Oklahoma). Marshall was solid defensively last season, but the verdict is still out on whether they’ll be able to stay disciplined against a triple-option attack. I think Navy will be able to control the clock in this game, and combined with the uncertainty around Grant Wells, I think this one stays under the total.
*CFB(1u): Clemson/Georgia 1H UNDER 24(-105)–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
I broke down this game a little bit above, but I’ll build off my analysis by saying that both OL’s will have a tall task ahead of them. Georgia consistently has the deepest DL in all of college football, rotating guys left-and-right in order to keep everybody fresh. Dabo Swinney has hinted that Clemson’s OL is anything but solid and has even floated around the idea that they will rotate Centers on Saturday. Considering Clemson will have to break in a new RB after the departure of Travis Etienne, I think Clemson will have a hard time establishing the run early. Still, as I pointed out above, I’m not willing to buy into this Georgia offense until I see them revert to a pass-first offense. Clemson returns 10 starters defensively, and J.T Daniels will be without his top 2 projected targets in George Pickens and Arik Gilbert. There’s a possibility each offense finds it’s rhythm in the second half, but I think defense takes over early in this game.
*CFB(1u): UTSA/Illinois UNDER 50(-110)–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Illinois is coming off an emotional high after last week’s win over Nebraska, but I’d argue UTSA will present a tougher test. The Roadrunners are coming off a solid 2020 campaign and feature one of the hidden gems of CFB in RB Sincere McCormick. While McCormick will get his fair share of yards, Illinois’ defense showed me enough last week to lead me to believe they’ll defend the pass well in this one. I love UTSA HC Jeff Traylor, and his team is far more disciplined than Scott Frost’s Nebraska bunch. Unlike last week, I don’t expect there to be many free handouts for Illinois. It’s unclear whether Brandon Peters or Artur Sitkowski will start at QB, but regardless, the Illini feature anything but an explosive offense. They will continue to hammer the ground game and look to limit the QB’s responsibilities. UTSA was a top 50 defensive in CFB last season and should match up well with an Illini offense that isn’t very explosive. I like the Under in Champaign on Saturday, and this should be a very close game.
