2021 CFB: 2-0-1, +2.5u
*CFB(1.5u): Northwestern -3(-120) vs Michigan State–Friday 8:00 PM CT
I released Northwestern OVER 6.5 Wins as one of my 5 season win total predictions for this season, so I’m obviously a bit more bullish on this Wildcats team than most. Even if you’re not willing to go that far, I’d still advise laying the short number with them tonight. Pat Fitzgerald is entering his 16th season as HC of the Wildcats, and he has the MAJOR advantage over 2nd year HC Mel Tucker. Tucker has a long rebuilding process ahead of him after inheriting a declining program from Mark Dantonio. Tucker will turn the QB responsibilities over to Temple transfer Anthony Russo; while Northwestern has to replace quite a bit of experience on defense, the Wildcats figure to be very strong up front as well as in the secondary. Russo struggled with turnovers during his time as an Owl(32 INT’s in 3 seasons) and will need some time to adjust to the new system and program. Northwestern QB Hunter Johnson has had a disappointing college career after being heralded as a 5 star recruit, but I am going all in on him. If you go back and watch the Elite 11 documentary from 2016, guys like Tua Tagovaioloa, Mac Jones, and Sam Ehlinger were gushing about Johnson’s talent. This is his third year in the Northwestern program, and I think he’s due for a breakout season. Michigan State has concerns at the second and third levels defensively and can’t be trusted in this matchup. Coaching matters, especially in a game where the line is this short. I’ll roll with Northwestern to start their season off strong tonight.
*CFB(2u): Rutgers -14.5(-110) vs Temple–Saturday 11 AM CT
I initially played Rutgers TT OVER 32.5 as my best bet, but after that game was postponed(resulting in a no bet), I decided to just roll with Rutgers -14.5. The crowd might be big of a factor as it would’ve been if this game was played last night, but nevertheless, this game presents the Scarlet Knights a clear opportunity to start the season off with a decisive victory. Temple is wretched defensively(particularly on the DL and in the secondary), and Rutgers returns an experienced group offensively. Noah Vedral found his rhythm at QB last season, and he’ll share the backfield with 4th year RB Isaih Pachecho, a complete back who shows up often in the passing game. Most importantly, Rutgers returns all 5 starters on the offensive line. Temple will turn to Georgia transfer D’Wan Mathis at QB; Mathis clearly has the raw talent, but he did nothing as a Bulldog last season that signaled he was ready to play big time college football. Much of the help he has around him is also playing their first game as Owls, so cohesiveness is likely to be an issue early on. Rutgers plays an aggressive style of defense and return a lot of production, and I think Temple will be outmatched from start to finish. Greg Schiano’s bunch should get a comfortable win under their belt to begin the 2021 season.
*CFB(1.5u): Stanford/Kansas State UNDER 53(-110)–Saturday 11 AM CT
Kansas State is another team I’m high on entering this season, but this matchup with Stanford will present an interesting test. Considering the Pac 12 played a 1.5 month schedule last season with almost no time for programs to prepare, you have to take some of their numbers with a grain of salt. Still, Stanford has seen their defensive production decline over the past few seasons; interestingly enough, the offense actually ran somewhat of an “up tempo” offense last season. That’s not David Shaw’s style of play, and with 2 QB’s who have never started a game at his disposal, I’d expect Stanford to revert back to much more of a methodical approach offensively. Kansas State ran just 61 plays/game last season, good for third least in the whole country. While they have more explosivity(especially with RB Deuce Vaughn), they are going to drain a lot of clock. Stanford isn’t very deep defensively, but there starters are talented enough to where I think that won’t have much of an effect this early in the season. All things considered, this total seems too high for my liking. I’m willing to bank that Stanford matches Kansas State’s slow style of play and that this game stays under the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Cincinnati -22.5(-110) vs Miami OH–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Luke Fickell is a coach I’m willing to trust laying big spreads. For goodness sakes, he was running fake punts in the 4th quarter of a 4 possession game just last season. He has his best team yet at Cincinnati, and I think they’re set up well to lay a beatdown on an in-state “rival” on Saturday. QB Desmond Ridder is coming off a solid 2020 campaign and has high hopes this season, and he’ll be helped by 2 senior WR’s on the outside. The OL must replace both of their tackles, but I’m not concerned about those repercussions in this matchup. The defense projects to be one of the best in the land again this season, and they’ll be led up front by an elite DL. Any way you slice it, Miami OH is simply overmatched against a legit Top 10 team.
*CFB(2u): Texas State +14(-110) vs Baylor–Saturday 6 PM CT
This is perhaps my boldest prediction of Week 1, but I believe Texas State is going to win this game outright. Thus, catching two touchdowns with the Bobcats easily becomes my play of the week. While Texas State went 2-10 last season, they kept games between SMU, Louisiana, Boston College, and UTSA all within 10 points. Their HC, Jake Spavital, is a creative offensive mind who once coordinated Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M. This Baylor defense isn’t bad by any means, but they’re still beatable. That’s especially true considering how Baylor’s offense projects to look this season. Starting QB Gerry Bohanon has failed to establish himself as a passer in the collegiate ranks, and the talent around him is suspect. Tristan Ebner is an average RB, and there isn’t much depth behind him. There are also questions surrounding the Baylor OL(except at LT), and with Jeff Grimes coordinating his first game at Baylor, it’s hard to imagine the Bears clicking on all cylinders in Week 1. Texas State proved last season that they can hang around with the “big boys” on their schedule, and I like that trend to continue into this season. Play of the week for me.
