Premium Plays: 61-28-1(68%), +46.9u
2021 CFB: 75-54-1(58%), +29.11u
*CFB(1.5u): Miami/Florida State UNDER 61(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Since the injury to Miami QB D’Eriq King, freshman Tyler Van Dyke has stepped in and played about as well as you could hope for. In the Hurricanes’ current 3 game winning streak, Van Dyke has thrown 10 TD’s to just 1 INT and completed 72% of his passes. With that being said, I’m staunch in my belief that regression is due for this Miami offense and specifically Van Dyke. Florida State might be 3-6 on the season, but when healthy, this is a pretty feisty Seminoles bunch. The Seminoles defense is about average, but they have yet to allow more than 35 points in a game since Week 1 against Notre Dame. Van Dyke is not a mobile QB, and past opponents have been able to get pressure on him(15 sacks in 5 starts). Miami RB Jaylan Knighton is averaging just 4.5 YPC this season as well, so the opportunity to win up front is there for Florida State. As for the ‘Noles’ offense, it appears starting QB Jordan Travis will be ready to go after missing last week’s game against NC State. Florida State is much better with Travis at QB due to his abilities as a runner, but even so, the ‘Noles are averaging just 22 PPG against FBS competition this season. Miami’s defense can be leaky, but I do believe they will hold up nicely against a predictable FSU run game without having to worry much about getting beat over the top. Florida State runs just 67.1 plays/game(100th in FBS), and because they will have home field advantage, I do expect them to largely dictate the pace of this game. This is a notorious rivalry game with tons of history and tradition; players on both sides grew up watching this game. You’re going to get each defense’s “A” effort; because each defense matches up nicely with the opposing offense, I expect to see the Under come through for us.
*CFB(1.5u): Purdue/Ohio State OVER 62.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Ohio State has enough talent offensively to where they will have every opportunity to drop at least 40 on any team they play. While they only put up 26 points at Nebraska last week, the Buckeyes are averaging 50 PPG in their other 5 Big10 games and will enjoy the familiar environment back in Columbus on Saturday. I wouldn’t consider Purdue to be bad defensively, but they are nowhere near the level necessary to stop this Buckeye offense. Last week, the Boilermakers yielded 146 rushing yards(6.3 YPC) to Kenneth Walker III of Michigan State, allowing QB Payton Thorne to throw for 9.2 Y/A. While Walker III is a legitimate Heisman contender, Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson(936 rush yards, 7.3 YPC) is an even more talented back. The Buckeyes’ elite OL should allow them to establish the run game, which should open up QB CJ Stroud(67% completion, 9.8 Y/A) to strike consistently in the vertical passing game with his dominant WR group. While I’m bullish on the Buckeyes’ offense in this matchup, you have to tip your cap to what Purdue has done on that side of the ball as well. The Boilermakers present almost no threat in the running game, but because they’re willing to acknowledge that, they allow QB Aidan O’Connell to carry the load. O’Connell threw for 536 yards on 54 attempts last week(0 INT’s); while I’m not expecting a similar performance in this one, it proves that Purdue has what it takes to win through the air. Quite frankly, Ohio State hasn’t faced an offense in better current form all season. Ohio State struggled more in their run schemes earlier this season, but I’m not convinced they’re all that sound in the secondary. Purdue runs the 7th most plays/game in the country and will give themselves ample opportunities to score. I’ll call this a 45-24 Buckeyes win and, more importantly, a winner on the Over.
*CFB(1.5u): Minnesota/Iowa UNDER 37(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Is it scary to bet an Under with a total this low? Maybe. However, I’m not worried about this one coming through. Remember, this total is set so low for a reason. The books want nothing more than for you to take the Over. With where each of these offenses are, I have a hard time seeing many points scored in this matchup. Minnesota has deployed a run-heavy attack all season long, but the Gophers are now down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s after Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts suffered season-ending injuries. One might think that the Gophers could simply start relying more on 4th year QB Tanner Morgan, but PJ Fleck has been public in the fact that he has little trust in his WR’s. When the Gophers have tried to air it out(such as last week in a 6 point performance vs Illinois), pass protection has broken down. Iowa made a killing earlier this season on forcing INT’s, so you can expect Minnesota to try to shorten this game(102nd in plays/game this season) and pound the rock, likely to no avail. While Iowa’s defense should feel good about this matchup, the Hawkeyes have their own issues to deal with on the offensive side of things. QB Spencer Petras is out this week, forcing Alex Padilla into his first career start. Padilla entered last week’s game early and led the Hawkeyes to just 17 points against a vulnerable Northwestern defense. Like Minnesota, Iowa likes to control the clock and limit the opposition’s possession(81st in plays/game). Even with Petras healthy, the Hawkeyes averaged just 24 PPG; Minnesota is allowing just 18.3 PPG this season and is respectable in their own right. Each offense is a mess, so this game might not be one you want to watch. However, the Under is the play.
*CFB(1u): Michigan ML(-120) @ Penn State–Sat. 11 AM CT
It’s still to be decided whether Jim Harbaugh can win the “big game”, but from a pure matchup perspective, Michigan has the clear edge in this game. The Wolverines have deployed an efficient 1-2 punch at RB with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins; because the OL has consistently been able to win up front, QB Cade McNamara is seldom needed to do anything more than manage the game. There are some vulnerabilities in the Nittany Lion LB room(which should allow Michigan to establish the run game), but McNamara will almost certainly be needed to make the critical throws in this game. I thought he proved to be competent in a similar environment in East Lansing just 2 weeks ago, so I’m willing to trust him in this spot. What ultimately gets me on Michigan in this game is Penn State’s inability to run the football. The Nittany Lions’ leading rusher(Noah Cain) is averaging just 3.2 YPC this season; when you consider QB Sean Clifford has been sacked 18 times this season, it’s clear that Penn State is struggling to win up front. That bodes horribly in this matchup considering they’ll face one of the most lethal pass rushers in CFB this week(Aidan Hutchinson) and a downright good Wolverine defense. Sean Clifford can excel in an offense where he has enough help around him, but his counterparts on this Penn State offense often leave him out to dry. While this is not a big part of my handicap, it certainly doesn’t hurt that James Franklin’s status as Penn State’s HC is a true question mark at the time being. In any case, I like Michigan to pick up a massive road win in Happy Valley.
*CFB(1u): West Virginia/Kansas State UNDER 47(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
I’ve been on Kansas State Under’s numerous times this season given that the Wildcats run the fewest plays/game in the country and play good defense. I think Kansas State -6 is a pretty sharp line, but I once again see value in playing this one Under the total. West Virginia’s offense is just not very good, as evidenced by a 3 point performance against Oklahoma State last week. RB Leddie Brown has been bottled up against the Mountaineers’ tougher competition, and QB Jarrett Doege almost never challenges defenses vertically. Kansas State has one of the best secondaries in the Big12, so the Wildcats will force WVU to be ultra-efficient and sustain long drives in order to score. So far, that formula hasn’t boded well for West Virginia(20.5 PPG in conference play). Like I said, Kansas State runs the fewest plays/game in the country; they have been quite efficient this season, and yet they still average just 28 PPG. West Virginia’s defense has proven to be stingy at times; they allowed just 16 points on the road against Oklahoma, 17 points at TCU, and 24 points to Oklahoma State last week. The common denominator in all of those performances was their ability to stop the run. They’ll have their hands full with Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn, but I’m counting on the Mountaineers defense to get stops and keep this one competitive. In such a low variance game, I think any total north of 45 is worth a play on the Under.
*CFB Teaser(1u): East Carolina +11 @ Memphis AND Mississippi State +11.5 @ Auburn(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Memphis(5-4) is coming off a big win over SMU last week, but this team has shown some inconsistencies this season(they lost to Temple for crying out loud). QB Sean Henigan is a true freshman who’s still learning the ropes, while ECU QB Holton Ahlers is a 4th year starter with nearly 10,000 career passing yards under his belt. In their last 3 losses, ECU(5-4) has lost by an average 4.6 PPG to South Carolina, UCF, and Houston. Given that Memphis is predictable offensively(Henigan focuses in on one WR), I expect the Pirate defense to step up and force some turnovers from the young QB. From there, Ahlers and a solid 1-2 combo at RB are plenty capable of keeping this a 1 possession game(and perhaps winning outright).
Mississippi State should’ve won at Arkansas last week if not for a last minute Razorback scoring drive(and an 0-3 day from Bulldog kickers). QB Will Rogers seems to have mastered Mike Leach’s Air Raid scheme; the Bulldogs are averaging almost 35 PPG over their past 3 games, and Rogers has completed more than 70% of his passes in 6 of his last 7 games. Auburn is solid in their front 7, but because Miss State seldom relies on their run game, I think Rogers and co. will be able to maneuver their Air Raid scheme as normal. I watched the entirety of the Auburn/Texas A&M game last week, and to say I was appalled by Auburn’s offense would be an understatement. The Tigers present virtually no threat in the vertical passing game, and they won’t have an easy time installing that this week against a solid MSU secondary. I didn’t expect much from Miss State’s front 7 this season, but they have genuinely surprised me with their competency; I think they’re plenty capable of holding Auburn’s run game in check and forcing Bo Nix to beat them with his arm. I think we see a lower-scoring game that comes right down to the wire(like most Mississippi State games seem to).
*CFB(1u): Georgia Tech TT OVER 28.5(-120) vs Boston College–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Georgia Tech is a high-variance team that has shown massive swings in performance this season, but from what I saw in their close 33-30 loss to Miami last week, I believe they’re offense is finding some solid ground. The Yellow Jackets 1-2 combo at RB combined for 142 yards on just 17 carries and have been a strength for GT all season. QB Jeff Sims has seen a slip in his play recently, but he features a cannon of an arm and is also an effective runner. If there’s one thing Boston College HC Jeff Hafley has struggled with throughout his career, it’s dynamic offenses like the one he’ll face on Saturday. The Golden Eagle defense has faced two straight run-first offenses(Syracuse and Virginia Tech) and have proven to be vulnerable against more dynamic offenses like Louisville, NC State, and Missouri. I like Georgia Tech to cross the 30-point barrier in this one.
