Premium Plays: 69-32-1, +51.45u
*CFB(1.5u): UCLA -3(-120) @ USC–Sat. 3 PM CT
I have little doubt that UCLA is a better team than USC this season, but that alone can’t justify a multi-unit play, particularly in a rivalry game. However, as I broke this game down and considered how these teams matchup(players and coaches alike), I have a hard time seeing UCLA not cover this number. USC(4-5) has been a total train wreck this season; if you think they’ll get any sort of boost by playing at home, consider that they’re 1-3 at the Coliseum this season with those 3 losses coming by an average of 16 PPG. The Trojans will be without QB Kedon Slovis in this one and will turn the reins over to true freshman Jaxson Dart. I believe Dart is the more talented QB, but Slovis provides the edge in the experience department. Without star WR Drake London(who was virtually the entirety of USC’s WR production this season), Dart is going to be playing behind the 8 ball. RB Keontay Ingram has had a solid season, but UCLA is plenty capable of stopping the run and forcing Dart into obvious passing downs. I’ve been somewhat disappointed in UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson this season, but the Bruins offense is still very dynamic. DTR can excel with both is arm and his legs, and he has a steady pair of RB’s who should find some open running lanes to work with. USC has been torched defensively multiple times this season, and Chip Kelly vs Todd Orlando(USC defensive coordinator) is a total mismatch. Finally, it’s worth noting that UCLA held a comfortable 4th quarter lead in this game last season before yielding a last-ditch comeback to USC. There will be an emphasis on putting USC away from start to finish; give me UCLA.
*CFB(1.5u): Florida/Missouri OVER 69(-110)–Sat. 3 PM CT
I wouldn’t overthink this one too much. Florida’s defense has totally crumbled down the stretch this season; they followed up a 40-17 loss to an inferior South Carolina team by allowing 52 points to FCS Samford last week. Whatever progress was made by the Gator defense earlier this season is now totally wiped away. Missouri is a very underrated offense; QB Connor Bazelak is back healthy and has been efficient through the air this season(68% completion), while RB Tyler Badie has run for 200+ yards in 3 of his last 5 games. The Tigers are averaging 31.5 PPG this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that number increases after Saturday. Even with their disaster of a defense, Florida shouldn’t have too hard of a time putting up points in this game. Missouri has arguably the worst defense in the SEC; there is certainly no argument they have the worst run defense in the conference. Florida did put up 70 points last week and is settling in with the better option at QB(Emory Jones). Jones has quietly had a solid 2021 campaign(68.5% completion, 8.4 Y/A, 22 total TD’s), and he’s another guy I can trust because of his versatility. The Gators’ run game has been somewhat inconsistent, but like I said, Missouri is the worst run defense in the league; this should be a “get right” game for Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. 69 is a high total for an SEC game, but it’s both warranted and also not high enough. Give me the Over.
*CFB(1.5u): Oregon/Utah UNDER 59.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
After starting the season 1-2, Utah has won 6 of their last 7 and now find themselves in complete control of the Pac-12 South division. In all likelihood, we’ll see these teams square off again in two weeks for the Pac12 Championship. These teams match up pretty evenly, but I’m expecting a low-scoring game more than anything. Utah’s season turned around once they turned to Cameron Rising at QB; Rising’s numbers really aren’t all that special, but the one thing he’s brought to the table is ball security(just 2 INT’s this season). RB Tavion Thomas(6.1 YPC) has been the main catalyst of this Utes offense, but he won’t have an easy time matching up with an uber-talented Oregon front 7. Moreover, Utah lacks playmakers on the outside, which is why Rising is throwing for just 7.5 yards/attempt this season. The Utes have been able to rely on Thomas for chunk plays in the run game, but I don’t see that being a realistic path to victory in this matchup. Oregon is built somewhat similarly to Utah offensively; Anthony Brown isn’t asked to be a gunslinger. While the Ducks are great on the OL, their run game has slipped up a bit since losing RB CJ Verdell for the season. Travis Dye was great in a complementary role, but he has been somewhat disappointing since seeing his usage increase. Utah’s LB’s are their strength on defense, and I expect them to keep the Oregon running game in check. The Ducks have the advantage on the outside, but I simply can’t trust Brown to make the necessary downfield throws consistently enough. This game has Under written all over it.
*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma State/Texas Tech UNDER 56.5(-110)–Sat. 7 PM CT
Unlike past Mike Gundy-coached teams, Oklahoma State has been led by their defense this season. Giving up just 16.4 PPG this season, I would consider the Cowboys a top 5 defense in all of CFB. Texas Tech isn’t overly reliant on the run game, but it is important for them to establish the run(as it is with almost every other team). I expect them to have little-to-no success in that department, forcing the game solely into the hands of QB Donovan Smith. Smith looked brilliant in Tech’s upset win over Iowa State last week, but in what will be just his 4th college appearance, I’m not willing to trust him in this matchup. Oklahoma State is usual very good offensively, but that’s just not the case this season. QB Spencer Sanders is very inconsistent(61.7% completion, 7.7 Y/A), forcing the Cowboys to tap into their running game quite often. The one saving grace of the Red Raider defense is their LB unit; Texas Tech has gotten torched by dynamic offenses this season, but have held up fairly well in the running game when the threat of the pass is not overly intimidating. I’ll call this a 28-17 OSU win and, more importantly, a comfortable winner on the Under.
*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Houston -2.5 vs Memphis AND Oregon +9 @ Utah(-110)–FRIDAY 8 PM CT
Houston(9-1) will honor their seniors tonight in their final home game of the season; with a game at UCONN on deck, the Cougars realize how close they are to the “finish line”, also known as the chance to knock off Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game. With that in mind, you can expect a full-fledged effort from the home team tonight. Since throwing 4 INT’s in Week 1 against Texas Tech, Houston QB Clayton Tune has thrown just 2 INT’s and boasts a respectable 8.4 Y/A. The Houston defense has won the battle of the trenches more often than not this season, and I expect them to get some pressure on Memphis QB Sean Henigan tonight. While the Tigers are better than their 5-5 record indicates, I struggle to see them knocking off a motivated Houston team tonight.
I broke the Oregon/Utah game down above in more depth, but I’ll just reiterate that these 2 teams match up very evenly. Because Utah is limited on the outside and faces a tough test with the Oregon defense, I don’t see them winning this game by multiple possessions. This is a true toss-up game, so I’ll tease the Ducks to +9 and watch a spirited battle on Saturday night(in addition to the Under).
*CFB(1u): Wake Forest +4.5(-110) @ Clemson–Sat. 11 AM CT
I’ve said this all season, and I’ll once again reiterate that Clemson’s past success is often built into their lines. With a 10 game sample size, this team has been proven to be overvalued all season long; I still don’t see enough adjustment from the oddsmakers in this one. QB D.J Uiagalelei is absolutely atrocious(55% completion, 5.8 Y/A, 8:7 TD/INT), and I don’t expect him to suddenly flip a switch in Game 11. Will Shipley has been a godsend at RB for the Tigers, but even so, they’re averaging less than 20 PPG against Power 5 competition this season. Wake Forest is vulnerable defensively, but against a stagnant offense like Clemson’s, I expect the Demon Deacons to be up to the test. From there, WF QB Sam Hartman should be able to take control of this game. Hartman isn’t the most efficient QB, but his knack for the big throw is undeniable(9.1 Y/A, 30 passing TD’s in 2021). Wake Forest is built very similarly to Pitt offensively; the Panthers showed the blueprint on how to beat the Clemson secondary, and I think Hartman and the Deacons will only build on that. I expect Wake Forest to win this game outright, but I will stick with the +4.5 given this game is on the road in a hostile environment.
*CFB(1u): TCU -21(-110) vs Kansas–Sat. 3 PM CT
Full disclosure: I am an avid Texas Longhorns fan; it’s why I’ve never given out a play in a Texas game. I was at the Kansas/Texas game last week and have obviously lived down the aftermath of that brutal loss. From what I’ve gathered, Texas’ defensive gameplan was so incompetent that it was almost laughable. Kansas was averaging just 10.6 PPG in Big12 play last week before dropping 56 on my Longhorns. I say all that to say this: I think any competent defensive coordinator will hold Kansas and their 1 page playbook in check. The proof is there. TCU isn’t great defensively, but they should be competent enough to hold the Jayhawks in check on Saturday. From there, TCU QB Chandler Morris has shown tons of flash in his young career and should be poised for a career day against a defense that is yielding 44 PPG this season. The Jayhawks spent all week celebrating the Texas win and making Applebee’s commercials(yes, I’m being serious); this team does not know how to handle winning, so as a result, I expect them to get steamrolled in Fort Worth on Saturday.
