Thursday
*CFB(1u): Ole Miss/Mississippi State OVER 64(-110)–Thursday 6:30 PM CT
This total was sitting at 62 just yesterday before being bumped up to 64; with more expected steam, I’d grab this one ASAP(you should be good with anything under 66). Both of these teams have played some lower-scoring games than you might expect, but with each of these offenses ranking in the Top 10 in plays/game, the opportunities should be ample for these pair of offensive geniuses to empty out the playbook in this rivalry game. Ole Miss deploys a run-heavy offense and can rely on 3 separate RB’s, but QB Matt Corral is the X-factor. After struggling with turnovers a year ago, Corral has tossed just 3 INT’s this season to go along with a 9.0 Y/A and 67.5% completion. The Mississippi State defense has fared okay overall this season, but against SEC West opponents, they are allowing 33 PPG. Lane Kiffin is undoubtedly going to dial up his most creative gameplan of the season in this one. However, you simply can’t ignore how well MSU QB Will Rogers is playing at the moment. Air Raid QB’s are always going to have inflated numbers, but Rogers’ 76% completion rate is absolutely phenomenal and makes up for the lack of a running game. Rogers’ success has led to the Bulldogs averaging 37 PPG in their last 4 SEC games. Ole Miss has improved defensively this season(which isn’t saying much), but I have zero trust in this Rebels defense to stay disciplined enough to hold the Air Raid offense at bay. I can’t stress enough how important pace is in this game; there should be plenty of possessions to go around. Give me the Thanksgiving Night Over!
Friday
*CFB(1u): Iowa +1(-110) @ Nebraska–Friday 12:30 PM CT
I believe this is the first time a 3-8 team has been favored over a 9-2 team in the history of CFB. Whatever the case may be, I couldn’t disagree with the oddsmakers more on this line. Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez catches a lot of flack and is an easy punching bag, but the senior QB is a HUGE reason why the Cornhuskers have even had a chance in most of their games this season. The Nebraska O-Line is absolutely terrible; Martinez was sacked 27 times this season despite being a very mobile QB. Martinez suffered a season-ending injury last week, leaving freshman Logan Smothers to start his first career game. Smothers came into Lincoln as a “dual threat”, but I’m willing to bet he’s going to be a major downgrade in the pocket awareness department in this one. Pressure leads to turnovers, and there’s not a defense in the country that has intercepted QB’s more than Iowa this season(21). Oddsmakers often look at turnovers as flukes, but at some point, they must acknowledge that the Hawkeyes have a real skill for turning opposing QB’s over. The Nebraska defense has turned in some good performances this season, and they won’t have an overly hard matchup facing this stagnant Iowa offense. Still, Hawkeyes RB Tyler Goodson has stepped up his production over the last 3 games, and newly-inserted QB Alex Padilla provides a downfield spark in the passing game. Lastly, Nebraska simply doesn’t know how to win football games. They are clearly better than a typical 3-8 team, but game after game, they find ways to lose at the end. People seem to count this as fluke, but winning is a learned skill that the Cornhuskers simply don’t possess(and won’t suddenly learn in Game 12). The Hawkeyes defense is the best unit on the field, and they will find a way to win Iowa this game.
*CFB(1u): Cincinnati TT OVER 36(-120) @ East Carolina–Fri. 2:30 PM CT
East Carolina’s offense is veteran-laden and has been on my radar all season; rather than try to guess how the Pirates will fare against an elite Cincinnati defense, I want to focus solely on the other matchup in this game. The Bearcat offense hit a wall in late October/early November, but QB Desmond Ridder has turned a corner. Last week, he threw for 274 yards against SMU on just 23 attempts(11.9 Y/A) in a 48 point effort; on the season, he holds a solid 66.5% completion and 8.7 Y/A. East Carolina can stop the run decently, but Cincinnati doesn’t expect RB Jerome Ford to pop off explosive runs anyway. The Cincy O-Line holds a massive physical advantage over the ECU front 4; winning up front will allow Ridder to strike vertically to his pair of really good outside WR’s. With too many close calls under their belt this season, Cincinnati understands they need style points to gain favor in the eyes of the committee. Considering their current form and matchup advantage, I expect to see Cincinnati eclipse the 40-point mark for the 3rd game in a row.
Saturday
*CFB(2u): Oregon -7(-110) vs Oregon State–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Oregon layed a complete egg in Salt Lake City last week and now find themselves out of the playoff race. However, with a win over their rival in this one, the Ducks will punch their ticket to the Pac12 title game and have a chance to avenge that loss. I don’t make 2u plays often, so it should tell you something that I’m willing to trust the Ducks so heavily in this spot. Even with the absence of RB CJ Verdell, Oregon has remained committed to pounding the rock and keeping their offense balanced. It has yielded them mixed results so far, but I have little doubt it will help them greatly in this matchup. Oregon State has arguably the worst run defense in the Pac12 and has allowed even the least likely of candidates to torch them on the ground(see Cal and Colorado). By establishing the run, Oregon will open up opportunities for QB Anthony Brown to hit his superior WR’s vertically. This formula should allow the Ducks to enjoy a season-best day offensively. Oregon State can run the football a little bit themselves(BJ Baylor: 6.1 YPC), but I have zero trust in QB Chance Nolan to beat Oregon through the air. While Baylor has run wild at times this season, this Oregon defense is the best he will have faced all season and specializes up front. The Beavers best not fall behind, or this one could get real ugly. Either way, this line is short; I’m backing the Ducks for 2u on Saturday.
*CFB(1.5u): Boston College +5.5(-110) vs Wake Forest–Sat. 11 AM CT
Wake Forest started the year 8-0 and was even garnering playoff hype(silly, I know), but the Demon Deacon defense has been totally exposed over the last 3 weeks. They allowed 58 to North Carolina and 48 to Clemson last week; even in a win over NC State 2 weeks ago, they yielded 42 points. Opposing offenses are able to run at will on this Wake defense, which should set up perfectly for this Boston College offense. QB Phil Jurkovec is playing at less than 100%, so BC has elected to deploy a run-heavy attack to open up the vertical passing game. The Golden Eagles were largely held at bay by a feisty Florida State defense last week, but given how I just profiled Wake Forest, their tendencies should fare much better this week. It’s hard to find many flaws in the Wake Forest offense, but one thing that sticks out is their unbalanced nature. They aren’t overly explosive in the running game, so they are quick to jump ship and put the game on the arm of QB Sam Hartman. For as many yards as Hartman has thrown for this season, he does have 9 INT’s and is only completing 60% of his passes. The BC defense has continuously improved throughout the season, and I expect them to stimmy a fairly one-dimensional Wake Forest attack. Give me the 5.5 points with BC on Senior Day.
*CFB(1u): Penn State/Michigan State OVER 51.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Michigan State was absolutely eviscerated by CJ Stroud and the Buckeyes offense last week; 49 of Ohio State’s 56 points came in the first half. While getting beat by Ohio State isn’t all that surprising, Michigan State has continually struggled to defend the pass this season. Penn State features an experienced QB in Sean Clifford and a dynamic WR in Jahan Dotson that can totally take control of this game. It also helps that WR Parker Washington has shown continual development throughout the season. The Nittany Lions’ run game is wretched to say the least, but they won’t even need a running game considering all they should be able to do through the air in this one. Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker III was a non-factor in last week’s game, but I’d expect a bounce-back effort in this one from a guy who’s still averaging 136 yards/game and 6.4 YPC on the ground. QB Payton Thorne has shown the ability to hit his teo top WR’s(Reed and Nailor in the deep passing game, and a good day from Walker only opens that aspect of the game up even more. This total seems considerably too low; I see value in playing this Over.
