In addition to these 6 free plays, I have 4 premium plays in this Week 4 card for my premium members. My overall premium record is 18-7, +19.5u; if you’d like to become a member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9. 2021 College Football Record: 21-16-1, +12.86u.
*CFB(1u): UCLA -4.5(-110) @ Stanford–Sat. 5 PM CT
After an inept Week 1 performance against Kansas State, Stanford has recorded back-to-back wins against USC and Vanderbilt. Much of the success can be attributed to first-year starting QB Tanner McKee. McKee was a highly touted prospect coming out of HS, and after completing a 2-year Mormon mission, it doesn’t appear he’s missed a step. However, it’s important that we contextualize those 2 wins; USC is an unstable program that fired their HC due to the Stanford loss, and Vanderbilt is in year 1 of a major rebuilding project. In a stark contrast, UCLA feels like this is their year in year 4 under Chip Kelly. I’m not going to knock the Bruins too much for falling to Fresno State last week because the Bulldogs have proven to be one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country. For reference, Oregon only beat Fresno State by a touchdown in Week 1. UCLA is built to beat Stanford down in the trenches, and the Bruins proved in a win against LSU that they are capable of doing so. The Bruins employ a heavy ground attack, which sets up horribly for a Cardinal defense that’s biggest question coming into the year was whether they could stop the run. UCLA can stop the run, and I’m not a big believer in Stanford’s ground attack. As good as McKee has looked, he is still unproven against quality competition like UCLA. Lastly, Stanford’s home atmosphere provides little-to-no advantage for the Cardinal, so I would feel comfortable laying the points with the road team. I expect UCLA to respond strongly off of last week’s loss and match up well with Stanford.
*CFB(1u): Tennessee/Florida OVER 63.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
Many coaches in Josh Heupel’s situation would choose to try and run the clock and limit Florida’s possessions in this matchup. However, Heupel isn’t like other coaches, and he’s shown nothing throughout his HC career that suggests he will employ such a game plan. At both UCF and now at Tennessee, Heupel has run his offenses at a shockingly fast pace(for reference: UCF ran 6 more plays/game than any other team in the FBS last season). That style gives both his team and the opposition more chances to score. Florida’s offense found their rhythm in the second half against Alabama last week and will have a much easier matchup against this Volunteer defense. I have questions about the Vols defense at all 3 levels, and with catalyst Anthony Richardson likely to be back healthy for the Gators, I think UF can name their number in this game. However, by the shear number of plays they’ll run, I do think Tennessee’s offense can push the 25-30 point mark. Heupel has been quiet about the QB battle this week, but I believe Hendon Hooker will lead the Vols offense on Saturday. Hooker is experienced from his time at Virginia Tech and has proven to be effective as both a runner and passer. Florida’s defense is much improved from a year ago, but they are still vulnerable to some leakage. I think Florida’s offense sets the tone in this game and we see this one skyrocket over the posted total.
*CFB(1u): Cal/Washington UNDER 47(-110)–Sat. 8:30 PM CT
I would classify both of these offenses as disgusting. Washington put up just 17 points through their first two games, while Cal consistently finds ways to avoid the end zone. Justin Wilcox and Jimmy Lake are both defensive-minded HC’s, and this could very well be a “first to 20 wins” type of game. For as bad as the Huskies offense has looked in meaningful games this season, I am still a believer in their defense. Their front 7 should be able to stop the run and force Chase Garbers into obvious passing downs, which is not his strong suit. While Washington put up 52 against Arkansas State last week, I’m not sold that this offense has found their solution. The Huskies have had a hard time establishing the run and have put QB Dylan Morris in less-than-ideal situations. Cal hasn’t looked great defensively this season, but they should benefit from Washington’s offense being stagnant. This should be an ugly game where the Under is the only way I’ll look.
*CFB(1u): Arizona State -14(-110) vs Colorado–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
I backed Arizona State last week against BYU and have a hard time reconciling that loss. Jayden Daniels completed 72.5% of his passes and the RB’s averaged 6.65 YPC, but 4 turnovers crippled the Sun Devils in a game they had no business losing. Coming back home, I expect a much sharper performance from Arizona State this time around. Colorado is totally lost offensively; they recorded just 63 yards last week in a shutout against Minnesota. When you can’t move the chains, you put your defense in a horrible position. I really like this Arizona State defense and think they can dominate the Buffs offense like the Gophers did last week. From there, as long as Daniels and co. can take care of the ball, they’ve proven to be pretty consistent as a unit. I like ASU in a bounce back game late on Saturday night.
*ML Parlay(1u): TCU, Clemson, Oklahoma State(+131)–must be placed by Sat 11 AM CT
TCU takes on rival SMU in the early slate on Saturday. TCU has settled on former 5 star Zach Evans as their main RB, and combined with Max Duggan’s legs, I expect the Horned Frogs to run all over a soft SMU defense. From there, Gary Patterson should be able to scheme up a good game plan against first-year starter Tanner Mordecai. Clemson’s offense has looked wretched through 3 weeks of the season, but they can’t get much worse from here. The main key to NC State’s season was for them to keep star LB Payton Wilson healthy, and unfortunately he will be out for a significant period of time. NC State didn’t show me much offensively in their game against Mississippi State; for how bad the Clemson offense has been, they’ve looked fantastic defensively. This is a good price to buy low on Clemson, but I’ll just take them to find a way to win on the road. Oklahoma State has reverted to a run-first offense(something I never thought I’d say with Mike Gundy at the helm), but I think they’ll open things up on Saturday. QB Spencer Sanders started behind the 8-ball after missing the first game due to sickness, but he’s now had two games to get comfortable. I cannot trust the Kansas State offense with Will Howard at QB, and RB Deuce Vaughn could have a tough time running on what’s a very good Oklahoma State front 7. It could be ugly, but I have a hard time seeing the Cowboys losing this game.
*CFB(0.5u): Navy ML(+770) @ Houston–6 PM CT
This is a total longshot, but this is a principle bet for me. Teams that run the triple option and drain a lot of clock often find themselves to be competitive in games they have no business being competitive in. We saw Army take Oklahoma and Michigan into OT in recent years. I know Navy has been horrific this season, but at these odds, I’m willing to take a shot with them for half-a-unit. I identified Houston as an undisciplined team coming into the season, and the verdict is still out on whether they can stop the triple option. Very little sprinkle for me, but I think it’s worth it.
