Premium Plays: 18-7, +19.5u
*CFB(2u): Iowa State -7(-110) @ Baylor–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Everybody seemed high on Iowa State coming into the season, and many went as far as to say they thought the Cyclones were set up to make the playoff. After another decisive loss to their rival Iowa, you’ve seen a lot of people turn on the Cyclones. However, the slow start for ISU shouldn’t have been a surprise; Matt Campbell has consistently struggled in the first few games of the season since he arrived in Ames. The Cyclones used last week’s trip to Las Vegas as a “get right” game; Brock Purdy completed 21/24 of his passes, Breece Hall ran for 100 yards, and the Cyclone defense held UNLV to just 3 points in an absolute drubbing. Fresh off a great performance, they’ll now travel to play one of the most fraudulent 3-0 teams in the country. Baylor has had a cakewalk of a schedule to this point(@ Texas State, Texas Southern, @ Kansas), and I believe they are in for a rude awakening entering conference play. Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is still unproven as a passer against quality defenses, and that’s not what you want to have facing this Cyclone defense. ISU is good at all 3 levels, but because they can stop the run with their D-Line, they will have the luxury of dropping 8 and making Bohannon beat them with his arm(and mind). Baylor’s defense isn’t bad by any means, but the Cyclones have enough quality experience(4th year QB, star RB, safety net TE’s, cohesive OL) where I don’t think they’ll have much trouble. I really think ISU wins this game by 20 against a phony Baylor team; call it my best bet for this weekend.
*CFB(1.5u): Kentucky/South Carolina UNDER 48.5(-110)–Sat. 6:00 PM CT
Kentucky came into the season with a new offensive coordinator and preaching that they’ll start to open up the offense. However, when they played Missouri 2 weeks ago, the offense reverted back to a heavy ground attack as Will Levis attempted just 18 passes. While the Wildcats have 2 really good RB’s to work with, I think the Will Levis hype is unwarranted. If he was so good, he would’ve found a way to take the job from Sean Clifford at Penn State. South Carolina is obviously not set up to win in year 1 under Shane Beamer, but the one area that could keep them in this game is their D-Line. Just 2 weeks ago, the Gamecocks recorded 5 sacks against East Carolina. While Kentucky’s OL should match up better, I had very low expectations for their protection entering this season. Shane Beamer seems to have his team playing with a lot of effort, and I think they’ll surprise some people with their ability to get stops. That said, the Gamecock offense is totally inept, and Kentucky has proven time and time again they are reliable on defense. South Carolina’s best chance to keep this game tight is to make it ugly, and I think they’ll be somewhat successful in doing so. I think this one stays well under the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma 1H -9.5(-110) vs West Virginia–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
Oklahoma did not look good last week as they squeezed out an ugly 7 point win at home against Nebraska. Questions have started to emerge around QB Spencer Rattler and whether he’s as good as his predecessors. Those are valid, but in my mind totally irrelevant for the game at hand. Oklahoma fans have longing to play more night games at home, and they’ll get their wish here with a primetime game on ABC. That will create an even bigger home field advantage for the Sooners than they usually have and, in my mind, will totally rattle West Virginia. Neal Brown is a competent HC, but the Mountaineers offense has fallen off significantly since Dana Holgerson left the program. This Mountaineers return a lot of experience on that side of the ball, but QB Jarrett Doege severely limits their potential. OU’s defense is much improved, and with a raucous home crowd behind them, I think they’ll have a lot of success early. I was surprised to see how much the Sooners ran the ball last week; I think we all overlooked the fact that they didn’t have a “go-to” WR yet entering this season. However, with each week, those WR’s will develop better chemistry with Rattler, so I’d expect the downfield passing game to improve this week. The Mountaineers were a really good defense in 2020, but they lost a lot of production from that squad. Maryland(a dynamic offense) had no trouble moving the ball against WVU in Week 1, and this sets up as a tough matchup for Neal Brown’s defense. Oklahoma is an established front runner; they consistently start games at home with a huge lead to work with. I expect Saturday to look no different.
*CFB(1u): Western Kentucky TT OVER 27(-120) vs Indiana–Sat. 7 PM CT
If you don’t know who Bailey Zappe is, you need to learn the name. Zappe began his college career at Houston Baptist before transferring to Western Kentucky alongside his top target Josh Sterns. In just 2 games as a Hilltopper, Zappe has already thrown for 859 yards, 278 of those being distributed to Sterns. This offense is special, and coming off a BYE week, they’ve had ample time to prepare for this matchup with Indiana. I wonder where the Hoosiers’ psyche is following a disappointing 1-2 start; considering WKU presents less of a threat defensively than many of Indiana’s BigTen opponents, there’s a possibility Michael Penix and the Hoosiers offense can start to piece things together this week. All I know is the Hilltoppers are going to throw the ball all over the yard and they’ve shown nothing to this point to where I couldn’t trust them in this spot.
