Premium Record: 20-10-1, +16.3u
*CFB(1.5u): Iowa -3(-110) @ Maryland–Fri. 7 PM CT
Maryland has seemingly started to put things together in year 3 of the Mike Locksley era. The Terrapins enter this week’s game against #5 Iowa with a 4-0 record, but I believe they are getting way too much love. They do have 2 P5 wins against West Virginia and Illinois, but the Illini are not a bowl caliber team this season, and I’m not so confident the Mountaineers are either. They won those games by a combined 9 points, which doesn’t seem too conducive to a team ready to enter a “big boy” type of matchup. Iowa plays a very boring style of offense and likes to keep the ball on the ground; this is effective because their defense is so good at getting stops and forcing turnovers. Remember, there’s a reason Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured HC in College Football. The Terps haven’t proven to me they are physical enough in the trenches to compete with one of the best lines in the country on each side of the ball. Taulia Tagovailoa has good numbers for Maryland this season, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to points; Maryland is averaging under 30 points/game against FBS competition this year. The younger brother of Tua showed last year how low his floor could be, and I think he is due for a rough performance against arguably the best defense in the country. If Iowa QB Spencer Petras can limit turnovers, this should be an easy cover for the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to take care of business tonight.
*CFB(1.5u): Michigan/Wisconsin 1H UNDER 21(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
If you’re looking for excitement in your weekend, this might not be the game for you. This sets up to be a defensive standoff given what each team has shown this season. Michigan has totally revamped their offense this year to feature an almost exclusive ground attack; QB Cade McNamara has attempted just 13 passes/game this season. This game plan has worked against the lesser competition on Michigan’s schedule, but the Wolverines totally sputtered in the second half last week against Rutgers, recording just 1 first down in the final 30 minutes of the game. Wisconsin has one of the best front 7’s in the country, and I expect them to totally stuff the Michigan run game. That being said, I don’t know how you could have any confidence in this Badger offense right now. Graham Mertz totally sputtered in the second half last week against Notre Dame, and turnovers continue to be a problem for the young QB. On top of that, the Wisconsin RB’s have had trouble breaking off long runs; consequently, Wisconsin has averaged less than 20 points/game this season. This Michigan defense is legitimate in their own right, not having allowed more than 14 points in a game this season and being loaded with experience at each position group. I expect to see tons of punts and stalled drives early in this game, which should allow this 1H total to hit with ease.
*CFB(1.5u): Cincinnati ML(-125) @ Notre Dame–Sat. 1:30 PM CT
Make no mistake about it: This game is Cincinnati’s Super Bowl. With a win in South Bend on Saturday, the Bearcats will likely find themselves in control of their own destiny for this year’s College Football Playoff. Throw out any preconceived notions you may have about Group of 5 teams, because this Cincy team is simply better than Notre Dame. QB Desmond Ridder will be making his 37th career start on Saturday and leads an RPO-style offense that the Irish have had their struggles with this season. Notre Dame has been somewhat vulnerable against the pass this season, so given that the Bearcats have had a full 2 weeks to prepare for this game, I’d expect a sharp and well-executed gameplan from their offense. However, where Cincy is going to win this game is defensively. I expect Irish QB Jack Coan to play, but he is going to be less than 100%. That doesn’t set up well considering the Bearcat DL unit is one of the best in the country. Cincy also has a pair of really solid corners, and I think they’ll be up for the challenge against the Notre Dame WR’s. Again, this game means EVERYTHING to Cincinnati. With 2 weeks to prepare, I think we see a flawless effort from the road favorite. Instead of laying the 2 points, I’ll take Cincinnati on the ML for just a 15 cent tax.
*CFB(1.5u): Nevada +6 @ Boise State(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I’ve watched a lot of Boise State live this season, and I’ve been pretty disappointed from what I’ve seen. The offense seems to go in dark spells quite often, and the Broncos have failed to take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes. Nevada is coming off a rather disappointing loss at Kansas State, but the Wolfpack can take solace in the fact that Boise doesn’t have anybody near the capabilities of K-State RB Deuce Vaughn. This game has major implications in the Mountain West, and coming off an off week, I think we’ll see a revamped Nevada team. QB Carson Strong is one of the best in all of CFB; seeing what Dillon Gabriel did to this Boise defense, I feel confident that the Wolfpack will get what they want offensively. Strong gets all the notoriety for Nevada, but Jay Norvell has a sneaky good defense, especially in Mountain West terms. Boise State is a team that plays scared and doesn’t seem willing to let Hank Bachmeier air the ball out; I want to bet against those teams, especially when the other team is willing to be aggressive. I made this line 2.5, so I see enormous value on the Nevada side. I think they’ll win the game, but taking the 6 points is the smarter play.
*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma State -3.5(-110) vs Baylor–Sat. 6 PM CT
Baylor proved me wrong(somewhat) last week and sent my 2u best bet on Iowa State -7 up into flames with an outright victory over the Cyclones. The Bears used a hot start offensively and a kick return TD to pull off the upset, but my bearishness on Baylor remains unchanged. They face another tough defense in Oklahoma State this week; through 4 weeks, I would crown this Cowboys D as the best in the Big12. They’ve allowed less than 20 points/game this season and are proven at every position group. Baylor’s run game has a limited ceiling, and the only way they’ll have a chance is through the vertical passing game. Safe to say, I don’t think they’ll be able to execute at the level needed to cover this number. It’s also worth mentioning that Mike Gundy opened up the Pokes’ passing game last week after featuring a run-first attack to start the season; Spencer Sanders threw for 344 yards and 2 TD’s against Kansas State last week in a 31-20 win. I’m not necessarily calling for an Okie State blowout, but I don’t expect this game to ever be in doubt. I like the home team by 10+.
*2 Team Teaser(1u): Nevada +12 @ Boise State, Arizona State +9 @ UCLA(-120)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Nevada play explained above. As for Arizona State/UCLA, I think we’re getting a situation where the wrong team is favored. Arizona State is an easy team to back because they’re talented, well-coached, and experienced. Jayden Daniels is completing 72.6% of his passes through 4 games and possesses a clear advantage over UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. However, the one edge UCLA could have is it’s physicality in the run game, an area that Arizona State has yet to be truly tested in this season. Rather than take a 50/50 shot on the underdog at the +3, I feel much better about teasing the Arizona State up to a 2 possession spread at +9. I think this is a toss-up game that is likely to end up with a close win in either direction; paired with a Nevada pick I feel good about even at it’s posted spread, this simple 2 team teaser should be able to get the job done for us.
*CFB(1u): Northwestern/Nebraska 1H UNDER 25.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
I was higher on Northwestern than most entering this season, but I’m already nearing a point where I’m ready to write off that OVER 6.5 wins ticket. The Wildcats have played QB roulette so far this season, and it appears South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski is in position to make his second straight start. However, he managed only 4.4 yards/attempt last week against Ohio, and the lack of stability at the QB position has forced Pat Fitzgerald to revert back to a slow-paced, run-first offense. Nebraska has it’s issues, but I actually think they’re fairly strong defensively. While the Northwestern offense has been a disaster, Fitzgerald seems to have the defense in solid current form. They’ve allowed just 14 points/game over their past 3 games and 7 turnovers over that stretch. Adrian Martinez is prone to his fair share of mistakes, and I think the Northwestern defense is capable of baiting him into some bad decisions early in this game. I wouldn’t advise watching this game for the sake of your sanity, but I do think the 1H Under in this one is a strong bet.
