With a premium winner on the Houston/Tulane OVER last night, I improved to 37-26-1, +18.01 in CFB this season. My premium record currently sits at 27-13-1, +21.38u, and I’ve got 5 premium plays for my members in this Week 6 slate. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Maryland TT UNDER 25(-120) @ Ohio State–Sat. 11 AM CT
Maryland was a public underdog last week against Iowa, and, well, we saw how that went. Taulia Tagovailoa threw 5 INT’s, and the Terps coughed the ball up 7 times. I had a premium winner on Iowa in that game because I couldn’t understand what people saw in the Terrapins offense. In their 3 games against FBS opponents leading up to last week, Maryland averaged less than 30 PPG, so last week’s result shouldn’t have been a major surprise. Ohio State’s defense is nowhere near the caliber of Iowa’s defense, but they certainly have the talent to be. This Buckeyes unit got off to a slow start in their first 3 games, and considering they’ve played Akron and Rutgers leading into this matchup, it’s hard to know if the defense has made the proper adjustments since DC Kerry Combs was demoted. I’m willing to bet they have, but this play more so stems from the fact that I still think this Maryland offense is being overvalued by the betting markets. I like the Buckeyes defense to continue their upward trend and show out nicely in front of a home crowd in Columbus.
*2 Team CFB Teaser(1u): Tennessee -4.5 vs South Carolina AND West Virginia +8.5 @ Baylor(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Tennessee absolutely exploded offensively last week, putting up 62 points and 683 total yards(458 on the ground) in a runaway win at Missouri. Ever since Hendon Hooker was inserted at QB, this Vols offense has clicked at a much higher rate. South Carolina’s one saving grace is their defense, but they will need a miracle performance from that unit to keep them in this game. The Gamecock offense has averaged just 14 PPG against FBS competition this year and simply doesn’t have the talent needed to go back and forth with a Josh Heupel led offense. I think the Vols will carry their momentum over from last week and win comfortably at home.
I would classify West Virginia as a team that plays exactly to the level of their competition. That’s great when playing a team that is much better than you, as shown by a close 3 point loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago. But that also leaves you vulnerable to losing games you shouldn’t, such as a home loss to Texas Tech last week. I’m frankly not that high on Baylor(I’m 2-1 betting against them this season), but they deserve to be favored at home. West Virginia will be bailed out by the fact that Baylor doesn’t generate explosive plays very effectively, so the hope is that Jarrett Doege and the Mountaineer offense can pull away with some deep shots of their own. I have no clue who will end up winning this game, but I feel very confident that it will be a one possession game in either direction.
*CFB(1u): East Carolina +10(-110) @ UCF–Sat. 5 PM CT
It’s only year 1 in Gus Malzahn’s tenure in Orlando, yet things have already gone haywire. UCF’s star QB and RB have gone down with serious(if not season-ending) injuries, and the usually relevant G5 program has already suffered 2 losses. Coming off a BYE week, the Knights laid a total egg last week in an outright loss to winless Navy. Now, they’ll have to recover quickly and face a stingy ECU team that has seen their stock trending upwards. After starting out the season 0-2, the Pirates have made a complete 180 on their season, winning each of its past 3 ballgames(key wins over Marshall and Tulsa). 4th year starting QB Holton Ahlers has this offense clicking on all cylinders right now, and while UCF’s defense is improved this season, there wasn’t much else to go but up for that unit. UCF QB Mikey Keene didn’t look horrible against Navy last week, but he’s still got a long ways to go in his development considering he’s a true freshman. The Pirates have a considerable edge at QB, and even though Ahlers will have to deal with the hostile environment that the Bounce House presents, his experience at this level should give him poise in this game. We’re catching a hot team at the right time getting 2 possessions worth of points in a game they wholeheartedly expect to win. Sign me up.
*CFB(1u): Notre Dame PK(-105) @ Virginia Tech–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
Virginia Tech won in Week 1 in a standalone game against North Carolina; while impressive, I think that win has given the betting public the wrong impression of who this team is. We’ve since learned that North Carolina’s offensive line is absolutely horrendous(Sam Howell has been sacked 22 times through 5 games), so VaTech’s defensive effort in that game looks less special now than it did then. In their past 3 games, the Hokies have averaged less than 26 PPG(2 of those games were against Middle Tennessee and Richmond), and they lost outright to a fairly mediocre West Virginia team. QB Braxton Burmeister is not a huge threat through the air, and the RB’s lack the explosiveness that has plagued Notre Dame this season. The Irish are the much more battle-tested team entering this matchup, having already squared off against Florida State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Cincinnati. While the QB situation is uncertain entering this game, I expect either Jack Coan or Drew Pyne to provide a bigger threat in the passing game than Burmeister. We can’t forget that Justin Fuente’s seat was scorching hot entering the season, and for good reason. The Hokies have fallen from grace since he took that job, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the loss that finally forces him out of Blacksburg. Give me the Irish on the road in a pick-em game.
*CFB(1u): Kentucky TT UNDER 27(-120) vs LSU–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
Tip your cap to Kentucky for pulling off the upset against Florida last week and improving to 5-0. But if they played Florida 10 times, I think they’d lose 7 or 8 of those 10 games. The Wildcats were out-gained 382-224 by Florida, yet a blocked field goal return for a TD and 115 yards worth of Gator penalties proved to be the difference. The reality is that Kentucky’s offense hasn’t improved much better despite bringing in a more modern system this offseason. Will Levis went 7/17 for 87 yards last week for crying out loud. LSU is at a crossroads with Ed Orgeron and just lost 2 key pieces on the defensive side of the ball(including CB Derek Stingley), but they aren’t sitting at 3-2 because of their defense. They have allowed a respectable 24.5 PPG in their 2 SEC games, and that came against decent offenses in Miss State and Auburn. Kentucky’s OL could easily get outmatched in this game by LSU’s big-bodied DL, which would force the Wildcats into some undesirable 3rd-and-long passing situations. Until Kentucky can prove some sort of competency . 27 is an awfully high Team Total for an offense that’s looked as bad as they have.
*CFB(1u): UCLA/Arizona 1H OVER 31(-110)–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
UCLA continued its inconsistencies last week with a blowout loss at home to an undervalued Arizona State team(I had Arizona St in a teaser that ended up cashing). The Bruins allowed numerous chunk plays both through the air and on the ground and simply couldn’t make up the deficit. Throw that result out, because this is a totally different class of matchup. Arizona hasn’t won a football game in almost 2 years dating back to 2019, so it’s going to take HC Jedd Fisch a little while to build this program back up. Perhaps the Wildcats can hang with UCLA up front, but they are very susceptible in their back 7 defensively. The Bruins have run the ball well this season with a 2-headed system, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is plenty dynamic leading the offense. Chip Kelly and his crew should take out last week’s loss on a clearly outmatched Arizona defense early and often; in fact, it’s not out of the realm that they surpass the 31 point mark in the first half themselves. It’s likely that we’ll need some sort of output from the Wildcats, but it’s encouraging that they are coming off a BYE week. The ‘Cats offense has shown a willingness to go fast this season(78.7 plays/game), so combined with the extra time to prepare, I expect we see a refined attack against UCLA. I’ll play the 1H Over simply to protect myself from UCLA sitting on a big lead late in the game.
