2021 CFB: 37-26-1, +18.01u
Premium Plays: 27-13-1, +21.38u
*CFB(2u): UTSA/Western Kentucky OVER 70(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
Nothing like an ol’ Conference USA matchup for my best bet in this Week 6 College Football slate. While the general public might not know about either of these teams, I’ve been paying attention to each very closely this season. I’ve backed Western Kentucky a pair of times(2-0 on those bets) and have seen first-hand just how explosive their offense is. QB Bailey Zappe is putting up other-wordly numbers this season, averaging 428 yards/game through the air while completing 73% of his passes. Don’t let the Hilltoppers’ 1-3 record fool you; they’ve managed to put up 30+ points on Army, Indiana, and Michigan State this season. UTSA’s defense isn’t bad by any means, but this is by far the hardest test from an opposing offense they’ll see this season. As good as WKU’s offense has been, there is a reason they lost each of those aforementioned games: their defense stinks. UTSA stays committed to the running game behind RB Sincere McCormick(108 yards/game this season) but also have a dual-threat QB in Frank Harris, who has gone without a turnover in 4 of 5 games this season. What makes me so confident in this bet is that UTSA runs 84.8 plays/game, good for the 3rd most in College Football. Each team will have plenty of opportunities to put up points in this game, and I expect this one to sail considerably over the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Michigan State/Rutgers UNDER 52(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Michigan State’s undefeated start is one of the most surprising things I’ve seen this season. The betting market wasn’t high on the Spartans entering year 2 under Mel Tucker, but Tucker’s use of the transfer portal has made a sizable impact on this year’s team. They’ve recorded impressive wins against Miami and Nebraska already, and this will be another tough task. Rutgers started off 3-0 but has dropped its last 2 against Michigan and Ohio State over these last 2 weeks. The offense has too hard of a time generating explosive plays; QB Noah Vedral has yet to achieve greater than 6 yards/attempt in his 4 games against FBS competition this season. Sparty’s defense has looked really solid this season, so I’d expect to see Rutgers’ offensive woes continue. That being said, this Rutgers defense has proven they can keep the Scarlet Knights in games. They held a run-heavy Michigan offense to just 20 points and 3.3 ypc in Ann Arbor 2 weeks ago, so the blueprint is there facing a similar style of offense in Michigan State. Sparty RB Kenneth Walker III has been a godsend, but Nebraska showed 2 weeks ago that he can be beaten(61 yards on 19 carries in that game). QB Payton Thorne has yet to prove he can make big time throws in big time situations yet, so I expect the Rutgers defense to get some stops in front of what should be a raucous home crowd. Rutgers’ path to victory is via a low-scoring game; I expect this game to be competitive, but I believe there is more value on the Under at this number.
*CFB(1.5u): Georgia Tech/Duke OVER 61(-110)–Sat. 11:30 AM CT
Not very many people are drawn towards Duke football, and rightfully so. Their 3-2 record is a bit misleading considering those wins have come against North Carolina A&T, Kansas, and Northwestern. However, I do see some bright spots on their offense. QB Gunnar Holmberg is completing 72% of his passes this season and has also added 6 touchdowns on the ground. He is joined in the backfield by a hidden gem in RB Mateo Durant; Durant has eclipsed the 100 yard mark in 4 of his 5 games this season(including last week against UNC) and is averaging 6 ypc on the year. The Blue Devils run just over 80 plays/game, good for 8th in all of College Football, so the opportunities to score should be there against what is still an inconsistent Georgia Tech defense(gave up 52 to Pitt last week). I don’t worry hardly at all about Georgia Tech being able to score in this one. Duke has done a poor job of recruiting and developing players on the defensive side of the ball, and if allowing 33 points to Kansas doesn’t make that evident, I don’t know what will. The Yellow Jackets have gotten Jeff Sims integrated back as their starting QB, and I expect it to pay huge dividends down the stretch. Sims is completing 68.5% of his passes this season and specializes in hitting on the deep ball, but he is also averaging over 50 yards/game on the ground throughout his career. When you combine that with a solid 1-2 tandem at RB, this Yellow Jackets offense starts to look more and more explosive. I expect each offense to fair well in Durham on Saturday and for this one to fly over the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Iowa ML(-125) vs Penn State–Sat. 3 PM CT
Until Iowa’s defense shows any sort of cracks, I simply can’t bet against them. The Hawkeyes lead the nation with 12 INT’s already this season; while turnovers can be unsustainable, I don’t think that’s the case with this defense. Iowa is confident they can win up front with their D-Line, so they lay back in quarters coverage and make the opposing QB beat them with his arm and mind. So far, the Hawkeyes have made a fool out of Michael Penix, Brock Purdy, and Taulia Tagovailoa, and I won’t be surprised if Penn State QB Sean Clifford is the next victim. Clifford is a serviceable QB, but he’s sort of a one trick pony; for instance, 8 of his 17 completions last week went to WR Jahan Dotson. Iowa has a great set of corners, so if they can limit Dotson’s damage, I expect to see Cilfford force some questionable throws to his other WR’s. There is virtually nothing special about Iowa’s offense; there is no doubt they’ve benefited greatly from their defense’s success. Still, QB Spencer Petras has shown extreme improvement from last season; he’s thrown just 1 INT this season and is coming off a game at Maryland where he threw for 259 yards and 3 TD’s while completing 70% of his passes. If Petras can just stay within himself, RB Tyler Goodson and the O-Line should have enough breathing room to put this game away. Iowa has given me no reason to bet against them in a near pick-em game; I still have my doubts about Penn State. Give me the Hawkeyes at home in front of a great home crowd.
*CFB(1u): Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER 51(-110)–Sat. 7 PM CT
It’s hard to find the path to points for Texas A&M in this game. The Aggies have put up 10 points vs Arkansas and 22 points against Mississippi State over the past 2 weeks, so facing Alabama’s vaunted defense is an absolute nightmare. Considering how well the Tide controlled a potent Ole Miss offensive attack last week, I feel comfortable saying that this Alabama defense is one of the best Nick Saban has had during his 10+ year dynasty in Tuscaloosa. Alabama’s offense is full of playmakers as well, but I actually think they could have their struggles against this Aggie defense. A&M has allowed less than 15 PPG overall this season and are by no means what has led to a 3-2 start for the Aggies. As bulletproof as Alabama often seems, you still have to account for the fact that Bryce Young is a first year QB who will be making just his second true road start in his young career. Alabama got off a hot start in their game at Florida a few weeks ago, but the offense ran into some trouble in the second half and only ended up amassing 31 points in the close win. Kyle Field at night is no easy task for any QB, and given that there is still relative inexperience at the other offensive positions, I expect Alabama’s offense to have a down game. The Tide shouldn’t be in any real threat to lose this game, but I still expect a sloppy, low-scoring affair given the circumstances.
