Premium Record: 46-22-1(67%), +36.6u
*CFB(2u): Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 50.5(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Both teams enter this game undefeated after massively over performing expectations through the first half of the season. This is especially true of Michigan State(7-0), whose season win total prior to the season was listed at 4. The Spartans have employed a balanced offensive attack centered around Heisman-caliber RB Kenneth Walker III and a pair of great WR’s, but I expect them to run into their toughest test to date in this game. The Wolverines are allowing just over 14 PPG and have one of the best edge rushers in the country in Aidan Hutchinson. More importantly, the Wolverines are very sharp and riddled with experience in the secondary. I believe they will be able to limit Payton Thorne’s ability to hit on the deep ball and force the Spartans to beat them consistently on the ground. Walker’s overall numbers are fantastic, but Indiana and Nebraska were both able to keep him under 100 yards and less than 4 ypc, so the blueprint is there for Michigan to follow suit. As good as I feel about Michigan’s defense entering this game, I can’t say the same about their offense. Jim Harbaugh and OC Josh Gattis have shown little trust in QB Cade McNamara to lead the passing attack and have often placed the majority of the load on the RB’s. A one-dimensional offense can yield you wins against Rutgers and Northwestern, but I think the Wolverines will be sorely disappointed if they enter this game with that same game plan. Michigan State has been solid against the run all season; while there are some questions in the Spartan secondary, Michigan is without its #1 WR Ronnie Bell and hasn’t seemed to find consistent play from its wideouts since Bell’s injury(which might explain why they’re hesitant to air it out). Neither QB has experience playing in this sort of environment, and I think we can expect some sloppy play from both(especially early). All things considered, 50.5 is too high of a total for this rivalry matchup. Each team is going to have to earn everything it gets offensively, and I don’t expect too many breakaway plays. That alone should keep this one under the total and give us a 2u Best Bet winner to start the day.
*CFB(1.5u): TCU/Kansas State UNDER 58.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I can’t for the life of me figure out why the oddsmakers keep posting totals this high on Kansas State games. We cashed a 1.5u winner on the Kansas State Under last week, and for many of the same reasons, I’m going right back to the well tomorrow. The Wildcats play at the 2nd slowest pace in all of College Football, running just 59 plays/game. While I like the QB/RB combo of Skylar Thompson and Deuce Vaughn, this offense is not built to light up the scoreboard. I’ll concede that TCU is not playing up to its normal standard and is having uncharacteristic issues stopping the run, but I’m not sure how much it will matter with a total posted this high. TCU has an abundance of issues offensively right now; QB Max Duggan is playing at far less than 100%, and there are rumors swirling around RB Zach Evans and whether he’ll enter the transfer portal. Regardless, because Kansas State employs arguably the best 1-2 CB combo in the conference, I expect the Wildcats to limit Duggan’s ability to hit Quentin Johnston deep and make the Horned Frogs drive the length of the field(similar to what West Virginia did last week in holding TCU to just 17 points). If Kansas State controls the tempo of this game, this should be the easiest winner of the day. I’ll remind you that the Wildcats yielded 14 points in the first 3 minutes of last week’s game and the game still finished 11.5 points below the posted total. Give me the Under here.
*CFB(1.5u): Ole Miss/Auburn UNDER 66.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
Did you know that Ole Miss is 3-1 to the Under over it’s past 4 games? If you did know that, I can almost guarantee you’re in the minority. When the public sees “Ole Miss”, they’re programmed to start hammering the Over; I think they’ll be wrong for the 4th straight time in the past 5 weeks. The Rebels have endured the brutality of an SEC schedule maybe worse than anybody; its past 4 games have come against: Alabama, @ Arkansas(52-51 win), @ Tennessee(31-26 win), and LSU. Now, they’ll have to turn right back around and face off with Auburn, who is fresh off an opportunistic BYE week. Ever since the second half of the LSU game, Auburn QB Bo Nix has seemed to flip a switch; he had arguably the best game of his career 2 weeks ago in Fayetteville as the Tigers cruised to a 15 point victory. Coming off the BYE week, the hope is RB Tank Bigsby got healthier and will be able to carry more of the load going forward. I actually think that Auburn’s success offensively will help our Under bet; the Tigers aren’t a team built on explosive plays through the air due to their limitations at WR, but if they can control the pace of this game on the ground and in the intermediate passing game, they’ll prevent Ole Miss from jacking up the pace of this game. Ole Miss’s defense has played a lot of snaps over the past month, and I think they’ll have a hard time getting off the field. Ole Miss uses a heavy ground attack themselves, including with QB Matt Corral, who had 30(!) carries against Tennessee. I believe this Auburn defense is among the most underrated in the country. Under the leadership of Derek Mason, this defense specializes in the second and third levels. Ole Miss is struggling with WR health/depth at the moment, and frankly, I think their run game can be stifled by Auburn’s front 7. I expect Auburn to control the pace of this game by getting Ole Miss out of their offensive rhythm and gaining an edge in the time-of-possession category. With that in mind, 66.5 is simply too high of a total. I think Auburn wins, but I feel much better playing the Under in this one.
*CFB(1.5u): SMU/Houston OVER 61.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
This is probably the most underrated game on this loaded Saturday card; while the Over is certainly the square play, I have little doubt we’ll see each team light up the scoreboard. SMU(7-0) has looked unstoppable offensively all season long, entering this matchup averaging 42.7 PPG. Houston’s defense is great at getting pressure on the QB, but this SMU O-Line is among the best in the country; SMU QB Tanner Mordecai has been sacked just twice all season. The Mustangs deploy a balanced offensive attack and run the 15th most plays/game in the country, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the Mustangs to find the end zone. As much as I just bragged about their offense, I don’t have much trust in the SMU defense. They carry a boom-or-bust reputation and are prone to allowing explosive plays. Houston isn’t a great running team, but QB Clayton Tune does a great job of distributing the ball to his talented WR’s and letting them take care of the rest. By getting Tune into a rhythm early, the Cougars should be able to open up some holes in the run game and really pile onto this SMU defense. I wouldn’t even bother picking a side in this game; I see the most value in this Over.
*CFB(1u): Oregon State/Cal UNDER 55.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
I would group Cal with a growing list of teams that have experience across their offense and might look good on paper, but simply don’t score at a very high rate. Even with a 4th year QB and experience across their offense, Cal is averaging a dismal 23.4 PPG. The Bears don’t generate many explosive plays in either the pass or run game, so Oregon State shouldn’t have too tough of a time preparing for this matchup. Cal is able to stay competitive in games because of their defense, and they will certainly need to be called on in this one. Oregon State doesn’t present a unique threat through the air, but RB B.J Baylor enters this matchup with 5 100+ yard games under his belt over his last 6 contests. Luckily, Cal’s strength on defense is their LB unit; Baylor is going to get his fair share of yards, but I trust the second-level of the Cal defense to limit Baylor’s explosiveness and force inconsistent QB Chance Nolan to beat them through the air. Neither of these teams are in a hurry to run tempo offensively, so combined with each defense’s perceived advantage entering this matchup, I’ll roll with the Under in this matchup.
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Minnesota(+130)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Pitt is coming off an emotional high after beating Clemson last week, so I’d be hesitant to lay the 9 points with them(although that’s the only way I could play it). However, I don’t believe they’re in any real danger of losing to Miami. Miami picked up a much-needed win against NC State last week, but HC Manny Diaz’s seat is still scorching hot. Give credit to freshman Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke for stepping up big for the ‘Canes last week, but it’s unrealistic to expect a repeat performance on the road against a legit defense like Pitt. I’d expect Kenny Pickett and the Panthers offense to enjoy smooth sailing tomorrow against a poor Miami defense and for Pitt to cruise to a win.
Iowa State comes into this road bout with West Virginia fresh off of a 3 point victory over undefeated Oklahoma State. Matt Campbell’s teams generally struggle to start the season before really kicking into peak form in the back half of the season, and I believe this year’s Cyclones team is following that exact trend. Credit West Virginia for picking up a convincing road win at TCU last week, but the Mountaineers fall into that same category with Cal(see above) where points are just so hard to come by. Iowa State is a veteran-laden team that’s getting hot at the right time, and while West Virginia can certainly play them close, I expect the Cyclones to pull away late in this one. It’s worth noting that Matt Campbell is 2-0 versus Neal Brown since Brown arrived in Morgantown; the Cyclones won 38-14 in 2019 and 42-6 last season.
Minnesota is still hanging around as a sleeper team in the Big10 West with only 1 conference loss. The Gophers have had injury issues at multiple positions(especially RB), but PJ Fleck and his staff have done a great job of integrating young pieces into the fold and have seen almost no regression. The Northwestern offense has proven to be totally inept more times than not this season, so I’d expect a solid Gophers defense to have a relatively easy day of work. While Northwestern’s defense is capable, I trust the experienced Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan to manage this game and get the Gophers out of Evanston with a W. This isn’t the type of game PJ Fleck loses.
