*MLB(0.74u): Astros -1.5(+135) vs Phillies–7:03 PM CT
Astros SP Justin Verlander has been phenomenal at Minute Maid Park this season, bringing a 1.64 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in this role into tonight’s start. I’m most impressed about Verlander’s ability to limit HR’s this year(0.4 HR/9 at home) after struggling in that facet the past few seasons. He was effective against an overvalued Yankees lineup the last time we saw him, and quite frankly, this might be a more favorable matchup. The Phillies do not handle righties well away from their home ballpark; they held a poor 79 wRC+ in this role over the final 2 months of the regular season, and it has carried over into the postseason. Braves SP Kyle Wright pitched a shutout against this lineup in the NLDS, and Yu Darvish allowed just 4 baserunners in 7 innings at Petco Park. The Phils are a whole different lineup on the road vs lefties, but this is a role they have proven to falter in.
There is a reason Phillies SP Aaron Nola held an ERA north of 3.00 this season despite carrying a sub-1.00 WHIP: He consistently has blowup innings. True to form, Nola allowed a 5 spot in the 5th inning in his last start at San Diego. Now, he’ll face an Astros lineup that mashed right-handed pitching at home down the stretch of the season and is filled with guys used to playing in the postseason. On a night where I don’t expect him to get much run support, I can’t trust Nola in this spot.
A HUGE part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. The Phillies ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in bullpen WHIP this season, while the Astros unequivocally had a Top 5 bullpen in the game. The Phillies ‘pen has improved over the postseason(1.11 WHIP), but they still lag far behind this Astros ‘pen(0.78 WHIP in postseason).
