Happy NFL regular season to all those who celebrate. After all the build up since the draft in April we’ve finally reached the opening week of the season. In the past I’ve had time to break down every division in depth and give you predictions, but again this year I’ve just got time to get you my season win totals for each team. Up until 2025 we’d done well in these articles, but had a rough season outlook last year. Hoping to get back to the tracked winners from previous years here in 2026. I’ll show each division with Over/Under Season win total odds and then give you my Win/Loss Predictions and bets. Without further ado here is my NFL full season predictions!
AFC East
Buffalo 10.5 Over -160/ Under +130
New England 9.5 Over -140/Under +110
New York Jets 5.5 Over -115/ Under -115
Miami 4.5 Over +155/Under -190
Buffalo 12-5/New England 10-7/New York Jets 6-11/Miami 5-12
Buffalo Should reclaim the crown this year if Josh Allen stays healthy. Jim Leonhard as DC I think is a great move for them also. The Pats face a much tougher schedule this year, and also have the Head Coach distractions to deal with which likely isn’t a good mix. It’s win or find a new job time in New York for Aaron Glenn and I would think he should update his resume. Miami might have the worst overall roster in football. Can you name any of their WRs off the top of your head? I do think Hafley is a solid defensive mind and Malik Willis showed me enough last year to make me think he’ll be able to steal a few games for them.
AFC East Bets – Buffalo Over 10.5 Wins- 1 Unit.
AFC North
Baltimore 11.5 Over +150/Under -180
Cincinnati 9.5 Over -180/Under +150
Pittsburgh 7.5 Over -160/ Under +130
Cleveland 5.5 Over -125/ Under -105
Cincinnati 12-5/Baltimore 11-6/Pittsburgh 9-8/Cleveland 5-12
I think it’s the year Joe Burrow and company put it back together. The defense is improved and with a head coaching change in Baltimore there could be some struggles there. Pittsburgh has potential if T.J. Watt stays healthy and the defense keeps the team in games. However, the juice isn’t worth it though on Pittsburgh with my trust levels on them to make a bet. The Browns QB situation will continue to let them down.
AFC North Bets – Cincinnati to win division +160 or better – 1 Unit. I got this at +190 earlier in the off-season and I still think it is a solid play.
AFC South
Houston 9.5 Over -150/ Under +120
Jacksonville 9.5 Over +110/ Under -140
Indianapolis 7.5 Over -145/Under +115
Tennessee 6.5 Over +105/ Under -135
Jacksonville 12-5/Houston 10-7/Indianapolis 9-8/Tennessee 4-13
Jacksonville and Houston should be favored here, but don’t sleep on Indy. Jacksonville even though they got the first place schedule lucked out I think compared to Houston. Jacksonville’s variable games earned them @Denver/@Chicago/VSNewEngland, while the Texans are VSBuffalo/@LAChargers/@GreenBay. Do we really think the Titans are going to be four games better than 2025? Robert Salah hasn’t exactly shown how he excels around limited talent.
AFC South Bets – Jacksonville Over 9.5 Wins – 1 Unit. Tennessee Under 6.5 Wins – 1 Unit
AFC West
Kansas City 10.5 Over +120/Under -150
Denver 9.5 Over -140/Under +110
LA Chargers 9.5 Over -140/Under +110
Las Vegas 5.5 Over -140/Under +110
LA Chargers 10-7/Kansas City 10-7/Denver 8-9/Las Vegas 5-12
Should be one of the more interesting divisions in football. I think there are three good teams in this division, but no great ones. In fact on my division winner parlay I put in at Circa this was the only division where I had to put two winners into the tickets. I think people are sleeping a little bit on the Chiefs as Patrick Mahomes should bounce back with Eric Bieniemy. Denver faces a tough schedule out of the gates and could find themselves in a deep hole early on. They also end the season VSBuffalo/@NewEngland/VSLAChargers. Vegas will be better and I think letting Mendoza watch for a bit is a great move.
AFC West Bets – Nothing
NFC East
Philadelphia 10.5 Over +110/Under -140
Dallas 9.5 Over -115/Under -115
New York Giants Over +110/Under -140
Washington 7.5 Over +125/Under -155
Philadelphia 10-7/Dallas 8-9/New York Giants 7-10/Washington 7-10
Harbaugh should bring a change in New York, but I think they need one more year to fill in some roster holes and add at least one more decent weapon on offense. Philly should win this division again by continuing to get things done of defense. Jayden Daniels will have three solid options at receiver if none of them ruins the locker room, but I don’t see this being a great team. Dallas could go 17-0 if they score 45 points in every game. The Cowboys defense is awful.
NFC East Bets – Philadelphia to Win the Division +140 – 1 Unit.
NFC North
Detroit 10.5 Over -130/Under -100
Green Bay 10.5 Over +140/ Under -170
Chicago 9.5 Over +115/ Under -145
Minnesota 8.5 Over -145/Under +115
Detroit 13-4/Green Bay 13-4/Chicago 9-8/Minnesota 6-11
Caleb Williams made some strides last season, but still made some awful throws and reads along the way. This division plays against the NFC South and AFC East which features only two really top end teams in the Bills and Pats. It should bode well for them. The Bears first place schedule however gets them VSPhiladelphia/@Seattle/VSJacksonville. The Packers were one of the best teams in football until injuries got to them out in Denver. I am playing the over for both teams, but am much higher on Detroit do to the last place schedule. Minnesota has some people high on them with Murray getting Justin Jefferson and company, but I still think he’s a head case and can’t handle the pressure of the NFL.
NFC North Bets – Detroit Over 10.5 Wins – 2 Units. Green Bay over 10.5 Wins -1 Unit. Minnesota Under 8.5 Wins -1 Unit.
NFC South
Tampa Bay 8.5 Over +120/Under -150
New Orleans 7.5 Over -120/Under -110
Carolina 7.5 Over +120/Under -150
Atlanta 7.5 Over +135/Under -165
New Orleans 10-7/Tampa Bay 7-10/Atlanta 2-15/Carolina 2-15
My Process goes week by week picking a winner of each game. I couldn’t believe I ended up with two teams in the same division with just two wins, but here we are. Is it likely to happen? No, but I’m still playing their unders without hesitation. Atlanta’s schedule is brutal until their BYE, and Carolina has a first place schedule. The whole division plays the NFC North and AFC North. Gonna be tough sledding. Tampa has a motivated QB, but they had the schedule to make noise last year and did nothing with it. New Orleans is a chic play for a lot of people to win this division and I guess I’m jumping on board also. I find more value in the season win total over 7.5 than I do winning the division at +230 though.
NFC South Bets – New Orleans over 7.5 – 1 Unit. Carolina Under 7.5 Wins – 1 Unit. Atlanta Under 7.5 Wins – 1 Unit.
NFC West
LA Rams 11.5 Over -145/ Under +115
Seattle 10.5 Over -130/ Under +100
San Francisco 10.5 Over +125/Under -155
Arizona 4.5 Over +130/ Under -160
LA Rams 14-3/Seattle 12-5/San Francisco 11-6/Arizona 4-13
The Rams are the Super Bowl favorite for a reason. Adding Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett do a solid defensive unit puts them over the top. As long as Matt Stafford stays healthy this team should be the best in football. Seattle and San Francisco are also solid contenders. Arizona will be treading water until they get their QB of the future next year.
NFC West Bets- Nothing. My number says play the Rams, but betting a team to go 12-5 or better is tough no matter how good you think they are.
Conferences and Super Bowl Bets
I don’t see a lot of value plays on the board this year. Teams like the Bengals at +1800, Jaguars +2500, Lions +1600 and 49ers +1600 might be worth a shot. I’m putting a small ticket in on the Bills +1000, but that’s it.
Other Bets – Sprinkling a little bit on these. Don’t go crazy, but I like the numbers here.
NFL Coach of the Year – Much maligned Zac Taylor should get serious consideration if the Bengals win the AFC North at 12-5 or better. At +2200 I’ll take a shot. Zac Taylor +2200, .5 Units
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year – Antonio Williams +4000 .5 Units. I think this young man is for real. I bet this before the Diggs signing so I have a worse number at +3500, but I think he’s going to mesh with Daniels well and odds are good that Diggs or McLaurin are injured before to long. It’s worth a shot here especially with Mendoza and Beck watching to start the season.
That’s it folks. Quick and to the point? Want any other thoughts or info hit me up on X @TheGreatKnoche. Good Luck to everyone with their bets this football season!
