January 2nd
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Kentucky vs NC State +2.5 O/U 50 –
I have both of these teams equally power rated but this is certainly an interesting matchup. NC State has been trending up in the ACC winning their last 4 games in a row while Kentucky has trended down losing 4 of their last 6 games and almost lost to Vanderbilt. There is really no secret on how to beat the Wildcats. They have a pretty good defense but they cannot throw the ball for the life of them. Their quarterback Terry Wilson has about just as many rushing attempts as their top running back. Stack the box and spy the Quarterback. NC State’s Strength is the passing game and Kentucky is a little weak defending it. Kentucky is a -.4 yards per play and NC State is +.1 I think NC State stacks the box, spies Wilson and beats this team outright.
NC State +2.5 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle
Outback Bowl
Ole Miss vs Indiana -8 O/U 65.5
Indiana is pretty pissed off not getting to play on New Years and facing an opponent in Ole Miss who only won 4 out of 9 games this year. One key question is will Indiana be motivated? After some of the thing that Tom Allen said about being ready and the fact that Tampa is one of the fertile recruiting grounds for Allen, I expect a max Effort out of the Hoosiers. Now we know that Michael Penix hurt himself bad in the Maryland game tearing his ACL, but Jack Tuttle played well enough to help beat Wisconsin and he looks like a pretty good young quarterback. Now Ole Miss has a very high powered offense at 7 yards per play but they will be missing their top 2 pass catchers in Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah. That is huge for a high flying team to try and make up for. Indiana wasn’t a great rushing team but they should be able to move the ball against Ole miss who gives up 5.5 rushing yards per attempt and 7 yards per play. I think Indiana’s D stuffs this team and I also think Indiana will put up some points. My power ratings has this game at 7 and give Indiana another point for motivation and I am at 8. I gave this out at -6.5 but still would bet it at 8. I also like the under for a star or so.
Indiana -8 – 1.5 star premium shared and under 65.5 for 1.5 star premium shared play
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Oregon vs Iowa State -3.5 O/U 57.5
This Bowl is pretty hard to gauge with Oregon’s limited games this year. Sure they did a great job beating USC but that game was based on USC being sloppy with the ball and turning it over. Oregon lost to Oregon State and Cal this year somehow. Oregon is a nice net 1.2 yards per play so I will give them that. I think Oregon is a much better team when they grow up. They are a very young team who is prone to mistakes. Iowa State on the other hand might have beaten Oklahoma if they had 1 more quarter. Brock Purdy played terrible in the Big 12 Championship game but they almost came back vs Oklahoma and won it. Iowa State is a nice positive 1.4 yards per play in a tougher conference. I only have the Cyclone’s 1.5 points better than the Ducks but I like the situation for Iowa State here. Being that Matt Campbell lost the conference championship, I can see this team rallying for the Fiesta Bowl. Oregon won their Pac 12 in a weird Covid year and that might be enough for this team. I am going to wait a little and see if I can get a 3 but will hope to play this game.
Lean Iowa State -3.5
Capital One Orange Bowl
North Carolina vs Texas A&M -7.5 O/U 65.5
If you have listened to me all year long, you know that I think that Texas A&M is a bit overrated. They are not just overrated according to the national TV analysts. They are also overrated in their own eyes thinking that they are better than Notre Dame and Ohio State. This A&M team struggled with teams like Vanderbilt and Arkansas. They do have a nice win vs Florida at home but Florida also lost to LSU so they kinda do that. On the flip side, North Carolina has taken their lumps themselves Florida State and Virginia but they at least finished the season out well. The problem with North Carolina in this bowl game is that their top WR Dyami Brown, Top RB Michael Carter and Top Tackler/Sack leader Chazz Surratt is opting out for the NFL. The good news for UNC is that they have other running backs that can get the job done and some depth at defense. A huge question for me is will Texas A&M have some late opt-outs as well. Isaiah Spiller is their lead running back and a for sure NFL draft pick as long as he is healthy. QB Kellen Mond is better off playing the game to improve his draft stock. My power ratings has the Aggies -3 points better and a another 3 for the opt-outs, you get -6. I really like what Sam Howell has done this year and even with backups, he is capable of putting up a big offensive performance similar to what Bama did to A&M earlier this year. I Like North Carolina and they might win outright.
North Carolina +7.5 – 3 star premium play and sprinkle
