🛩️ New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears 🐻 -3.5 O/U 43.5
Week 4 Preview | Soldier Field | 1:00 PM ET
📊 By The Numbers
🐻 Bears (2-1)
✅ 408.0 offensive yards per game (Top 3 NFL offense entering Week 4)
✅ NFL-best 184.3 rushing yards per game
✅ 5.27 yards per rush (NFL leader)
✅ 89 points scored through three games
🛩️ Jets (1-2)
✅ Just 258.3 yards allowed per game (2nd-best defense entering Week 4)
✅ Geno Smith: 783 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
✅ NFL-leading 75.5% completion rate according to the Jets’ preview
✅ Averaging nearly 35 minutes of possession per game
🔥 Key Matchups
🏃 Bears Ground Game vs Jets Front Seven
This is the matchup that could decide the game.
🐻 Chicago owns the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack at 184.3 yards per game.
🛩️ New York’s defense has been excellent overall, but Detroit wore them down late last week. If Chicago controls first down and stays ahead of the chains, the Bears can dominate time of possession.
Edge: 🐻 Bears
🎯 Geno Smith vs Bears Secondary
Geno Smith has quietly been one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks:
📈 77-for-102 passing
📈 75.5% completion rate
📈 4 TD, 0 INT
📈 110 passer rating
Chicago’s defense just forced three turnovers against Philadelphia and continues to create pressure at key moments.
Edge: ⚖️ Even
🏈 Bears Quarterback Situation
🚑 Caleb Williams is expected to miss another game because of a hamstring injury.
Last week, veteran Case Keenum stepped in and delivered:
✅ 247 passing yards
✅ 3 total touchdowns
✅ 110.8 passer rating
✅ 0 turnovers
Ben Johnson’s offense continues producing regardless of who’s under center.
Edge: 🐻 Bears Coaching
🚑 Injury Watch
🛩️ Jets
❌ Breece Hall (quad) out
❌ Adonai Mitchell (finger) out
🐻 Bears
❌ Caleb Williams (hamstring) out
The absence of Hall removes New York’s most explosive rushing weapon.
📈 Advanced Stat Edge
| Category | Jets | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Offensive YPG | — | 408.0 |
| Defensive YPG Allowed | 258.3 | — |
| Rush YPG | 163 (team leader stats shown) | 184.3 |
| Points Scored | 64 | 89 |
| Points Allowed | 61 | 53 |
🔑 X-Factors
🔥 Can the Jets stop Chicago’s No. 1 rushing attack?
🔥 Can Geno Smith remain turnover-free against a defense that just forced three takeaways?
🔥 Will Chicago’s backup quarterback magic continue for another week?
🏆 Prediction
Jets vs Bears -3.5 O/U 43.5
- It should be pretty clear that the Bears defense isn’t really any good, but somehow the Bear’s D ranks 9th in EPA compared to 13th for the Jets.
- This game will be about how well the offenses perform. I know that Geno Smith has looked serviceable, but that was against a Terrible Titans team, a Packers team with no offensive line, and a Lion’s team who took care of business. The Bears offense ranks 8th in EPA to the Jet’s ranking 11th, and the Bears are at home.
- Backup quarterback Tyson Bagent has been dying for a chance to prove himself. He is much more of a solid backup than people actually no. The Bears are very healthy right now while the Jet’s are missing their top running back, their starting guard, and their number two wide receiver. I think the Bears win by margin here.
Bears -3.5 – 1.5 stars
