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Texas vs TCU +5 O/U 65.5
This handicap is a no brainer for me. TCU looked bad last week and it was against a pretty darn good SMU team that they probably took too lightly while looking ahead to Texas. My question is, what has Texas done to deserve a road favorite over 3 points against a Gary Patterson led TCU team? Lets see who Texas played so far? They beat Louisiana Lafayette with some officiating help. That game was close until the 4th quarter. Next, they lost outright as road favorites to Arkansas by 19 points. Then, they beat down Rice who is one of the worst teams in football. Finally, they took on a Texas Tech team who’s defense is like swiss cheese and beat them handily mainly because Tech lost their starting quarterback in the first half. TCU at least beat a decent Cal team at home. Now TCU doesn’t have the flash and the glamour that Texas has under Sark, but they certainly have some of the grit on defense to be able to slow Texas down some. Now I know that Texas has all the metrics here based on the easier schedule, but even after playing the easy teams, they are only a +.97 yards per play. The biggest thing for me in this handicap is the look ahead spot that Texas has to Oklahoma. TCU is coming off a loss and they need a good showing. Looking at this matchup the last 7 years, TCU has won 6 of the 7 games outright and covered 6 of the 7 times as well. Gonna take the Horned Frogs here and call out the fraud in the Long Horns.
TCU +5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Army vs Ball State +7 O/U 47.5
Army has been a pretty big surprise for me as they are currently ranked number 2 in EPA margin, and having some very great success against decent teams like Western Kentucky and Georgia State. Ball State on the other hand is a shell of themselves from last season’s success and they are currently at only one win so far vs an FC opponent. QB Drew Pitt hasn’t been what he was last year and I am not sure that they can turn it around just yet. The biggest issue for Ball State here is that teams have been averaging 4.9 yards per rush and that is with a very weak schedule thus far minus the Penn state game. I just can’t see how they are going to be able to stop the option and that big Army rushing attack that averages 5.22 yards per carry. Right now Ball State is a -1.98 net yards per play which is one of the worst in college football. Army ranks number 11 in yards per point and Ball State ranks 122nd. Sorry, but I have to go with the Black Knights here in this spot until I see something different and I’ll lay the points.
Army -7 – 1.5 stars
LA Tech vs NC State -21 O/U 55
This is a complete spot play for me here. The question that you have to ask yourself is, what is NC State this year? Well, let’s see. They blew out 2 cupcakes and then lost to Mississippi State who isn’t a very good SEC team. The Wolfpack just beat a very over-rated Clemson team and now they are in a massive let down spot. If it wasn’t for the bye week coming up, I would call this a look ahead spot to Boston College but I am not sure that NC State is going to take the Bulldogs seriously. LA Tech is a very dangerous team in spots like this because they had themselves a pretty decent schedule only losing to, yes, that’s right, Mississippi State by 1 point and the SMU team that just beat TCU by 2. I like battle tested group of five teams. I know that LA Tech’s starting quarterback Austin Kendall tested positive and missed last week’s game due to Covid, but their backup Aaron Allen threw the ball at a nice 73% completion last game, and should do just fine if Kendall can’t go. LA Tech ranks a modest 32nd in Pass EPA while NC State only ranks 98th. LA Tech is also a very solid 12 yards per point efficiency stat while NC State is at 15.2. Prepare yourself for a potential large upset this game and if all goes well, you might be feeling pretty good either way in that 4th quarter. Bet the spread for 2 stars and make sure you sprinkle that shit.
LA Tech +21 – 2 stars and sprinkle
