In addition to these 7 free plays, I have 6 plays up for my premium members in CFB this weekend. My premium plays have hit at a 66% clip and netted my members +16.35u in just over a month. If you’d like to become a premium member for just $50/month, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1.5u): Iowa -3(-110) @ Maryland–Fri. 7 PM CT
This is a premium play that I decided to also include on my free play card. Maryland has seemingly started to put things together in year 3 of the Mike Locksley era. The Terrapins enter this week’s game against #5 Iowa with a 4-0 record, but I believe they are getting way too much love. They do have 2 P5 wins against West Virginia and Illinois, but the Illini are not a bowl caliber team this season, and I’m not so confident the Mountaineers are either. They won those games by a combined 9 points, which doesn’t seem too conducive of a team ready to enter a “big boy” type of matchup. Iowa plays a very boring style of offense and likes to keep the ball on the ground; this is effective because their defense is so good at getting stops and forcing turnovers. Remember, there’s a reason Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured HC in College Football. The Terps haven’t proven to me they are physical enough in the trenches to compete with one of the best lines in the country on each side of the ball. Taulia Tagovailoa has good numbers for Maryland this season, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to points(Maryland is averaging under 30 points/game against FBS competition this year). The younger brother of Tua showed last year how low his floor could be, and I think he is due for a rough performance against arguably the best defense in the country. If Iowa QB Spencer Petras can limit turnovers, this should be an easy cover for the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to take care of business tonight.
*CFB(1u): Tulane/East Carolina OVER 64.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I’ve had a hard time hitting my Over plays so far this season, but this one was just too good to lay off. ECU QB Holton Ahlers is now in his 4th year and has consistently demonstrated the ability to march the ball down the field. Tulane can get some pressure on the QB, but they are what I’d consider a “boom-or-bust” defense. In other words, if they don’t get pressure on the quarterback, they’re likely to get carved up. Given that this Pirates offense is riddled with experience, I expect them to be up for the challenge. That being said, I’m very high on what the Green Wave can do offensively. Sophomore QB Michael Pratt has tons of upside, and he’s surrounded by a solid 1-2 punch at WR as well as a good set of WR’s and TE’s. To put it simply, I’m anything but scared of the East Carolina defense. Both teams are in the top half of the country in plays/game, so pace is on our side. I really like what each of these offenses can do, and I am expecting a back-and-forth shootout in Greenville.
*CFB(1u): Oregon/Stanford UNDER 57.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Oregon enters this game as just 8 point favorites, and I think that’s warranted. Mario Cristobal has developed a reputation of failing to cover large spreads, specifically in conference play. Oregon is a run-first team, and given that QB Anthony Brown has completed just 57% of his passes this season, it’s reasonable to assume the Ducks offense sputters here in their first road conference game. Stanford QB Tanner McKee has settled into his role nicely as the starter, but this is by far his toughest test in his young career. It’s hard to find many flaws in Oregon’s defense, and by simply possessing the far superior athletes, I think they’ll show out nicely. Each team is in the bottom-half in the country in plays per game, and each is likely to focus on establishing the run. If this total was at, say, 55, I probably wouldn’t play it. But at 57.5, I do see some value on the Under.
*CFB(1u): Florida/Kentucky UNDER 55.5(-110)–Sat. 5 PM CT
Florida QB Emory Jones looked to be in complete control last week against Tennessee, and the first-year starter has shown clear signs of progression already through this young season. However, we’ll see what he’s really made of in Lexington, which will be his first career road SEC start. Kentucky has quietly started the season 4-0, and with the home crowd behind them, I think they can throw off the Gators’ rhythm. There are a lot of new faces on this Kentucky defense, but they’ve done a great job of limiting big plays so far this season. In their Week 2 bout with Missouri, they didn’t allow a gain of more than 24 yards from an explosive Tigers offense. The Gators should be able to establish the run, but I’m still not convinced that Jones can make the big-time throws when it matters most. That being said, I’ve been extremely disappointed with the Kentucky offense this year. We were told all offseason how Will Levis was finally the QB they needed to start to open up the passing game, but that just hasn’t materialized up to this point. Coming off a 16 point performance against lowly South Carolina, I have a hard time trusting the Wildcat offense in this one. Florida is extremely improved on the front 7, and they will be selling out to stop what is a solid Kentucky running attack. I had Kentucky’s OL as one of the worst in the SEC entering this season; this game could very well prove me right given Florida’s pass rushing ability. This game always seems to come down to the wire; if Kentucky wants to keep that trend rolling, it will need to do so via a low scoring game. I expect to see the defenses take center stage and for this game to stay under the total.
*CFB(1u): Liberty ML(+105) @ UAB–Sat. 6 PM CT
After becoming one of the best Group of 5 teams a year ago, Liberty has gotten off to a slow start this season offensively. This was first evident in Week 2 when they put up a mere 21 point performance against Troy, and then it happened again last week in a 24-21 loss at Syracuse. Hugh Freeze is one of the best offensive minds of this generation; out of principle, I’m taking Liberty at a plus-price in this game because a Hugh Freeze-led offense simply can’t continue to have these sorts of struggles. UAB is no slouch defensively, but I’m putting my trust on the arm and legs of Malik Willis and the mind of the Liberty HC.
*CFB(1u): Boston College +15(-110) @ Clemson–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
I don’t know what more Clemson needs to show us before we can all admit they are simply not a very good football team. You can excuse a close loss to Georgia to open the season, but to squeak by Georgia Tech by 6 and then lose on the road to NC State has to set off the alarm. Not only that, but injuries have reared their ugly head on it’s team. Star DL Bryan Breese suffered a season-ending injury last week, and #1 RB Will Shipley is also on the shelf for an extended period of time. DJ Uiagalelei is tasked with playing behind a poor OL and hasn’t developed any continuity with his WR’s. Boston College gave Clemson fits last season and should’ve won that game if not for a late Clemson comeback; I think this game will play out very similarly this year. Jeff Hafley is in his second year in Chestnut Hill and already has BC back on the right track. They’re coming off an OT win against a good Missouri team and should have all the confidence in the world that they can make this a game. Hafley has a reputation of struggling with dual threat QBs and dynamic offenses, and right now, Clemson doesn’t provide either of those threats. It does hurt Boston College that starting QB Phil Jurkovec can’t suit up this weekend, but Dennis Grosel looked plenty competent in a 41 point performance last week. The problems at Clemson are real, and there’s no quick fix to their issues right now. Tuning into Dabo Swinney’s most recent press conferences would indicate that pretty clearly. If the betting markets refuse to adjust Clemson’s power rating, we have no other choice than to keep fading the Tigers.
*CFB(1u): Indiana +12.5(-105) @ Penn State–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
This game features both a buy-low and a sell-high team. Indiana had high expectations coming into the season only to stumble into a 1-2 start. However, those losses came to Iowa and Cincinnati, each of whom find themselves squarely in contention for a CFP bid. Michael Penix struggled in each of those games, but he did show some progression last week with a 373 yard performance through the air against Western Kentucky. You might’ve written the Hoosiers off, but if we’ve learned anything from Tom Allen, it’s that he knows how to get his teams ready to play in these types of games. I’ll tip my cap to Penn State for starting off 4-0, but I don’t think that tells the full story. They easily could’ve dropped one(or both) of their wins against Wisconsin and Auburn; quite frankly, each of those two teams simply aren’t that good. Indiana has shown that they can limit the opponents run game, and even though Penn State’s Sean Clifford has shown improvement early in the season, I’m not ready to assume he’s escaped his past turnover issues. Indiana’s a gritty football team that’s already found themselves in some adversity; Penn State might be getting a little too big for their britches at this point. I will take the points and trust the Indiana offense to keep this a 1 possession game.
