We had a fantastic weekend in Week 4, going 10-4 overall in single ATS premium picks for +15 units. That’s a record of 18-11 for +21 units the last 2 weeks! We also went 2-0 in free picks last week. Rollin’ with that energy, here’s a free pick for TNF!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 32-26 (55%), +16 units
Rams -2.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I really wanted to take the Seahawks in this game, at home, but I think this is going to be a different year for Seattle. I bet on the Seahawks last week to win outright against the 49ers and that’s what happened. As usual, Russel Wilson continues to hold this team squarely on his shoulders, but the reality is the Seattle Seahawks are a team hurting for consistency on both sides of the ball. Let’s look at some alarming numbers that stand out about Seattle, according to Sharp Football Analysis:
- The Seahawks are last (32nd) in the NFL in plays per game and last in opponent’s plays per game. This is usually an indicator of very poor performing teams.
- Seattle is allowing a league-high 462.8 yards from scrimmage per game.
- The Seattle pass defense is not pressuring the quarterback (ranked 22nd) and is allowing 19.9 passing points per game (29th).
- The Seahawks have run just four offensive plays inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line, the fewest in the league.
- Seattle has 32 fewer first downs than their opponent, ahead of only the Texans (-36).
Yikes. It’s reasonable to say that if this was any other team in the NFL without QB Russel Wilson, I don’t know if Seattle wins a game. The Seahawks were fortunate that Jimmy G. got injured during last week’s contest. An unprepared Trey Lance came into that game and did his best, but Shanahan didn’t have a week to strategize and innovate with his rookie talent. Something tells me the Niners will look more buttoned up this week, but that’s not the game we’re talking about.
The Rams got embarrassed last Sunday by Arizona and now they have a short week, on the road, up in the Pacific Northwest with Seattle’s infamous “12th man” in attendance. Clearly that’s not an ideal spot, but I still think it’s a better situational angle than the Seahawks. The Seahawks feel fortunate, the Rams are pissed, and there’s some alarming differences about these two teams that could mean sure disaster for the home team.
While Seattle has struggled to stop the pass and maintain their own pass-rush all season, the Rams have a +9 sack differential. That’s the largest in the NFL. We’ve seen Wilson’s offensive line let him down time and time again and after last week’s beatdown by the Cardinals, something tells me Aaron Donald and the elite front-7 of the Rams will get to Wilson frequently in this contest. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford, who had his worst game of the year last week, should have all day to pass and should experience some significant positive regression. Neither of these teams can run the ball well but if the Rams are poised to show a more balanced offense, this is the game to do it. The Seahawks allow an NFL-worst 152 rushing yards per game thus far. Los Angeles has faced some of the better run defenses in the league to this point– Tampa, Indy, Chicago– Seattle won’t present the same level of difficulty.
LAR is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. Sean McVay and the vaunted Rams got whacked last week and the last thing they want (or need) is to go down 2 games to the red-hot Cardinals. I’m on the Rams to get a win and cover on Thursday night.
