Washington vs Michigan State +3.5 O/U 43.5
🏈 Washington Huskies vs. Michigan State Spartans Preview
📍 Saturday, Nov. 14 | Spartan Stadium (East Lansing)
📊 Line: Washington -3.5 | O/U: 44.5
🔢 Advanced Analytics Snapshot
| Metric | Washington | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 3-6 |
| SP+ Rank | #40 | #83 |
| SP+ Rating | +8.9 | -2.4 |
| Points/Game | 26.3 | 19.3 |
| Points Allowed/Game | 21.9 | 23.6 |
| PPA/Play | +0.12 | -0.03 |
| Turnover Margin/Game | +0.4 | -0.2 |
🤖 What the models say
- SP+ projection: Washington by 8.3 points with a 69% win probability.
- Power-rating model: Washington by 3.2 points, essentially matching the betting market.
- Elo-based model: Washington by 3 points, 57% win probability.
The consensus: ✅ Washington is better, but the market thinks the gap is much smaller than SP+ does.
🔍 Matchup Breakdown
🟣 When Washington Has the Ball
✅ Advantage: Passing Game
Washington averages:
- 265 passing yards/game
- Rank: 27th nationally passing offense
QB Demond Williams Jr. has thrown for 1,667 yards with 11 TDs and gives the Huskies a clear edge at quarterback.
⚠️ Concern: Ground Attack
Washington’s rushing offense is ugly:
- 99 rushing yards/game
- 131st nationally
If Michigan State can force obvious passing downs, the Spartans can keep this game in the low-20s.
🟢 When Michigan State Has the Ball
Michigan State’s offense has struggled all season:
- 292 total yards/game
- 19.3 points/game
- 117th passing offense
- 125th rushing offense
QB Alessio Milivojevic has been efficient but not explosive, while RB Jaziun Patterson leads a rushing attack that hasn’t consistently generated chunk plays.
Washington’s defense is not elite, but it has been solid:
- Allows just 21.9 PPG
- Opponents average only 4.0 yards per rush
➡️ This looks like a difficult matchup for a Spartan offense that already struggles to create explosive plays.
🎯 Key Stat
Turnovers
Washington: +4 turnover margin Michigan State:-2 turnover margin
In what projects as a relatively low-scoring game, a single turnover could swing the outcome by 20-25% win probability.
🔥 X-Factor
🏠 Spartan Stadium
Michigan State is coming off an emotional 15-6 rivalry win over Michigan.
Washington must travel nearly 1,900 miles and cross three time zones.
That’s one reason betting markets are much closer than SP+ ratings.
📈 Prediction
- This is a meaningless game in the Big 10 for some, but there is more to it.
- Some say let down spot for Sparty after beating up big bro, but we have to remember that Michigan State has a chance to win out and make a bowl game here.
- Washington has been a team of a lot of ups and downs, yet they are pretty average in the big 10 with only a .32 net yards per play margin.
- Washington has been less than impressive when they stepped up in competition, they lost pretty bad to Iowa and were never really in the game at USC.
- Michigan State’s defense has improved since the bye week and it showed last week allowing only 6 points to Michigan.
- Sparty Quarterback Alessio Millivojevic hasn’t been gad at 65% completion and a 7-3 TD to interception ratio. This is on a brutal schedule ranking 12th on Sagarin to Washington’s ranking 47th.
- I think that Sparty has another chance here to ugly up this game and keep it close. Washington only ranks 82nd in success rate and 71st in offensive EPA.
- Last week with Washington at home at home, Penn State outgained the Huskies by over 100 yards.
- I like the home dog here past the 3.
Michigan State +3.5 – 2 stars
Fresno State vs Texas State -9.5 O/U 59.5
🏈 Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Texas State Bobcats Preview
📍 Saturday, Nov. 14 | Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
📊 Line: Texas State -9.5 | O/U: 59.5
🔢 Advanced Analytics Snapshot
| Metric | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| SP+ Rank | #51 | #48 |
| SP+ Rating | +4.9 | +5.8 |
| Points/Game | 26.8 | 38.6 |
| Points Allowed/Game | 20.6 | 30.8 |
| Total Yards/Game | 349 | 517 |
| PPA/Play | +0.10 | +0.26 |
| Turnover Margin | +1.0 | -0.4 |
🤖 What the Models Say
✅ SP+ projects Texas State by 3.9 with a 59% win probability.
✅ Elo model projects Texas State by 5 with a 63% win probability.
✅ Betting markets are much more aggressive, pricing Texas State around-9.5.
🚨 Key takeaway: Analytics generally like Texas State, but not by as much as the betting market does.
🔥 When Texas State Has the Ball
This is where the game may be decided.
🐾 Texas State Offense
- 517 yards/game 💥
- 38.6 points/game 💥
- 266 rushing yards/game 💥
- 55% third-down conversion rate 💥
Texas State owns one of the most efficient offenses outside the Power 4. They can beat teams through the air or simply bludgeon them on the ground.
The Bobcats just ran for 386 yards against Oregon State and dropped 42 points.
🎯 Advantage: Texas State
Fresno State’s defense is respectable, allowing just 20.6 PPG, but this is easily the most explosive offense they’ll face in weeks.
🐶 When Fresno State Has the Ball
✅ Strength: Ball Security
Fresno State owns a +1.0 turnover margin per game and commits very few penalties (32 yards/game). They play clean football and generally avoid beating themselves.
⚠️ Concern: Running Game
Last week against Utah State:
- Only 16 rushing yards
- Just 10 points scored
The rushing attack has disappeared down the stretch.
If Fresno State becomes one-dimensional, Texas State can tee off on obvious passing situations.
📈 Hidden Analytics Angle
Texas State: Elite Efficiency
The biggest mismatch isn’t raw yardage.
It’s PPA (Predicted Points Added):
🏈 Fresno State: +0.10 PPA/play
🏈 Texas State: +0.26 PPA/play
That’s a massive difference in offensive efficiency. Texas State creates scoring opportunities on a much larger percentage of snaps.
🔑 X-Factors
🌵 Home Field
Texas State is:
- 4-1 at home
- Fresno State travels 1,300+ miles and crosses 2 time zones
Home field is worth nearly 3 points in most models.
😬 Turnovers
Texas State’s weakness:
- Negative turnover margin (-0.4)
If Fresno State wins the turnover battle by 2+, this game gets very interesting.
📊 Betting Lean
Spread
📉 Models: Texas State by 4-8
📈 Market: Texas State by 9.5
That suggests slight value on Fresno State +9.5.
Total
🚀 Texas State scores fast and often.
🚀 Fresno State can throw well enough to contribute.
Over 59.5 has appeal if Fresno State reaches the mid-20s.
🏆 Prediction
- This is the kind of spot that I like to bet. Texas State is coming off of a HUGE win against Oregon State last weekend. Things are working well for the Bobcats even coming off of a loss to Boise scoring 45 points and losing by one.
- The problem is that Fresno State ain’t no slouch. They are coming off of a tough game at Utah State, and I think that redemption is on their minds.
- Fresno has alrady proven that they could win on the road with Double Digit victories at San Jose State as well as at Washington State.
- QB Jayden Mandal for the Bulldogs has been solid with 11 TDs and only 2 Interceptions for the season.
- Both teams played Boise State and both teams kept it within a 1 score game.
- Fresno’s defense is a lot better than both Boise State’s and Oregon State’s defense.
- Let’s not foreget that Texas State lost to UTSA at home as well as a Mumps infested San Diego State in a 2nd half stinker.
- The Bulldogs are a huge 6-3 ATS this season. Tthe Bobcat’s rank 120th in opponent passing success rate. I see the back door being open for the Bulldogs this game if needed.
Fresno State +9.5 – 2 stars
