The NHL season has begun and the storylines are beginning to write themselves. We saw the Tampa Bay Lightning get absolutely demolished on opening night to a Crosby, Guentzel, and Malkinless Pittsburgh Penguin squad. On night two the Winnipeg Jets, a team that was supposed to contend for the Cup, get beaten by the Anaheim Ducks. Also, the Colorado Avalanche look to be back in form after a brutal 4 game losing streak to knock them out of the playoffs last year.
The NHL is a big bounce back league, meaning that the line movements are slightly easier to predict than other major sports (yes hockey is a major sport). Looking ahead at Friday, the Blackhawks, a preseason play for most sharps to win the cup, looked awful against Colorado. They opened against New Jersey, who have yet to play a game at +120, they’re now down to +110. Why? Because of the predicted bounce back against a New Jersey team that’s not all that great.
Another example is the Anaheim Ducks vs Minnesota Wild game on Friday. On Wednesday night, the Ducks upset the Winnipeg Jets 4-1. For their game on Friday, they opened at a +122 underdog to Minnesota. Here’s where the “bounce back” strategy gets reversed, since they had a major upset in their last game, they movement has indicated that they don’t believe they can repeat. The line on the Anaheim Ducks is now +135.
Hopefully, you enjoyed that little breakdown on line movement for the upcoming games. Lets, breakdown some of tonight’s games.
Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
Montreal off a 2-1 loss to Toronto heads to Buffalo, to face well, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2011. The Canadiens will have Samuel Montembeault in net tonight as Carey Price is out dealing with personal issues. In the off-season the Sabres, made Don Granato the permanent head coach after taking over duties from Ralph Kreuger. Jack Eichel is still out for the Sabres as they look to find a trade partner.
This game opened as a pick em’ and has now moved to the Canadiens being -140 favorites. In addition to the moneyline, the total has also shifted from 6.5 to 5.5.
The Sabres plan to play fast this year with all of their young players, while the Canadiens will continue their “blueline trap” style of play. However, given the goalie matchup between Montembeault and Anderson, this game should go over.
PICK: BUFFALO/ MONTREAL OVER 5.5 (-120)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings
The Lightning suffered a shocking defeat on opening night losing 6-2 to the Penguins. They’ll look to bounce back against a Red Wings squad that’s been rebuilding for the past few years.
The line opened at -357 for the Lightning but has moved to -220 to -205 on most books. If Andrei Vasilevskiy does start this game, then this bet is a go. If he does not, this is not an advisable bet. Vasilevskiy the best goalie in the league last year and was robbed of the Vezina trophy. In particular, he was great in net after a loss. The goalies for both teams have yet to be confirmed so keep an eye out on the starting goalies before the game. Puck drop is at 7:30 PM ET.
PICK*: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING -1 1/2 (+110)
*IF ANDREI VASILEVSKIY STARTS
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
