2021 CFB: 45-31-1, +21.86u
Premium Plays: 32-16-1, +25.21u
*CFB(1.5u): BYU/Baylor UNDER 50.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
BYU is 3-0 against Power 5 competition this season, but it has little to do with their offensive prowess. The Cougars are averaging just 27 PPG this season, and I have low hopes they’ll eclipse the low 20’s on the road in this matchup given their inability to create explosive plays. Baylor’s defense is well coached with Dave Aranda at the helm. I still am not completely sold on Baylor offensively like most are. QB Gerry Bohanon has relied heavily on the deep ball for his success and still hasn’t proven to me he can make the intermediate throws consistently. For example, when Baylor took on a solid Oklahoma State defense a few weeks ago, Bohanon completed less than half of his passes, and nearly half of his 173 yards through the air came on 2 completions. BYU’s defense has proven to be stout, allowing just over 20 PPG this season. They forced 2 turnovers in a win against Utah and 4 turnovers in a win against Arizona State, so I’d expect the Cougars defense to step up in this matchup and bring Bohanon back down to earth a bit. Lastly, each of these teams deploy some of the slowest-paced offenses in the country. BYU ranks 106th out of 129 qualifying teams in plays/game, while Baylor ranks at 125th. I could see each of these teams struggling to get past the low-20’s, making this Under at 50.5 an easy bet for me.
*CFB(1.5u): Miami/North Carolina UNDER 63–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Coming into the season, each of these offenses had high expectations considering they featured what were presumed to be 2 of the better QB’s in the country. One team has lost their starting QB for the season, while the other has massively underperformed. D’Eriq King’s absence from this Hurricanes team can’t be understated; the Hurricanes now have to look towards a pair of freshman to replace King’s production. Tyler Van Dyke got the start against Virginia 2 weeks ago and completed just 52% of his passes in the losing effort. The 28 point output was fueled by a second-half surge and can’t be taken at face value; frankly, given how bad Virginia is defensively, it’s simply not an impressive performance. The North Carolina defense can be hit-or-miss, but they have only seemed to struggle against dynamic QB’s this season, something they won’t have to worry about in this matchup. They have the strength up front and talent in the secondary to give this pieced-together Hurricanes offense fits all day. With all that said, it is impossible to ignore just how disappointing the Tar Heels have been offensively this season. QB Sam Howell has seen his completion percentage drop from 69% last season all the way down to 60.5% this season, and through 6 games, Howell has been sacked an astounding 23 times. Miami has a lot of youth in their front 7, but their talent in the secondary should be able to match up well with what’s been a disappointing season for the UNC playmakers. Also, considering Miami allowed 62 points to UNC last year, I’d expect there to be some extra motivation to keep the Tar Heels at bay. Neither of these offenses has proven anything to warrant a total of 63; I’ll play this one Under.
*CFB(1.5u): Arizona State PK(-110) @ Utah–Sat. 9 PM CT
I’ve been really high on Arizona State all season. Aside from a loss at BYU where they shot themselves in the foot with 4 turnovers, the Sun Devils have looked extremely efficient on both sides of the ball. Herm Edwards runs his program like an NFL organization, and it shows on Saturdays. QB Jayden Daniels is completing over 70% of his passes this season, and with a Yards/attempt at 9.3, it’s clear he’s having success in the medium-to-deep passing game. He’s also added 369 yards and 3 TD’s on the ground, forming a lethal ground attack with an already solid 1-2 punch at RB. Utah has serviceable players across their defense, but they don’t have the athletes at this point to beat an athletic offense like Arizona State. Utah QB Cameron Rising has looked good since taking over the starting job a few weeks ago(7 TD vs 0 INT), but this will be his hardest test to date. The Utes have struggled running the ball this season; while RB Tavion Thomas did eclipse the 100 yard mark last week, I’m going to have to see a repeat performance before I change my rating on the Utes’ running game. Coached by Antonio Pierce, the Sun Devils defense looks really sharp at all 3 levels. Given their strengths in the secondary, Utah is going to have a tough time in the medium-to-deep passing game given that their WR’s haven’t developed consistent continuity with Rising at QB. I understand why Utah is being given this much respect by the oddsmakers, but Arizona State already had their wake-up call with BYU. I like the Sun Devils to stay hot and pick up a very impressive road win at Utah.
*CFB(1u): UCF 1H TT UNDER 9.5(-120)–Sat. 11 AM CT
As of this writing this on Thursday evening, Team Totals haven’t been released yet. Given the 1H total, the UCF 1H team total should be around 9-9.5. As long as it opens over 7, I’m going to fire on this. UCF has suffered a pair of brutal injuries to starting QB Dillon Gabriel and experienced RB Isaiah Bowser that has put the offense in the hands of freshman QB Mikey Keene. Under Keene’s watch, the Knights have lost outright against Navy and managed to muster only 20 points against East Carolina last week. Cincinnati has a legitimate shot at a CFP bid this season, but in order to get there, they need to take care of business in games like this. I wouldn’t talk anybody off of laying the points with the Bearcats, but part of me thinks UCF’s defense can get some stops to keep them in the game. What I’m most sure about is that Cincinnati’s defense, which is among the best in the country, is going to come out and totally dominate a lost UCF offense.
*CFB(1u): Ole Miss -2.5(-110) @ Tennessee–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
Each of these teams has proven they can do some pretty special things offensively, so it’s not surprising the total of this game is set at an all-time SEC high of 83! Ole Miss has surpassed the 50 point barrier 3 separate times already in this young season, including last week when they hung 52 on a respectable Arkansas defense. QB Matt Corral gets all the praise, but Ole Miss’s running game is what truly sets the Rebels apart. Last week, Ole Miss had 2 separate RB’s rush for 100+ yards, and that was with their starting RB out with an injury. Tennessee’s defense figures to offer little resistance to what’s been a truly impeccable offense this season. That said, Tennessee has looked equally as dominant since turning the QB job over to Hendon Hooker. The Vols scored 62 at Missouri 2 weeks ago and 45 at home against South Carolina last week. Much like Ole Miss, Tennessee has run the ball extremely effectively with multiple RB’s and will face a defense that is notorious for getting burned. This game would usually be a pass for me given how evenly these teams match up, but the 2.5 was just enough to get me on the Ole Miss side. Lane Kiffin’s program is further along as a whole than Tennessee’s right now under 1st year HC Josh Heupel. More so than that, however, I believe the Rebels are a more battle-tested team entering this game. They’ve already played Alabama and had to scratch and claw to pick up a win against ranked Arkansas last week. Tennessee’s success has come mostly against bad competition, and they’ve lost to each of the two “good” teams they’ve played(Pitt and Florida). Ole Miss has proven they can sustain this level of offensive success, while Tennessee is playing a bit over their heads right now. I’ll take the Rebels to cover the -2.5 in what should be one of the best games of the day.
*3 Team CFB Teaser(1u): Minnesota +10 vs Nebraska, Kansas State +12.5 vs Iowa State, Arizona State +6 @ Utah–Sat. 11 AM CT
Nebraska once again found themselves in the game against a really good team last week before shooting themselves in the foot with a fumble in their own territory and giving the game away. The ‘Huskers sit at 3-4, but they could just as easily be 5-2 or 6-1 at this point. Even so, I think this is a great spot to tease Minnesota up and play them to keep this thing a one-possession game. PJ Fleck has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and get his team back in check after an up-and-down start to the season. I would expect to see the Gophers rely more on the arm of veteran QB Tanner Morgan and for the Gophers to look a lot more explosive offensively on Saturday. It’s worth noting that Minnesota beat Nebraska outright in Lincoln last year despite missing ⅓ of their roster due to Covid protocols. PJ Fleck is the better coach, and he’ll have his guys competitive in this one.
I actually think Iowa State is a team to look out for in the Big12 race over the back half of this season, but this figures to be a very competitive game. Kansas State has looked very efficient offensively this season when QB Skylar Thompson is healthy. The Wildcats are coming off a BYE week, meaning Thompson will be as healthy as he’ll be the rest of the season. Paired with star RB Deuce Vaughn, I have a lot of trust in that Wildcat backfield. Iowa State has surprisingly shown some cracks defensively this season and could be vulnerable to some chunk plays from K-State’s offense. Iowa State has tons of experience on offense, but they aren’t overly explosive. QB Brock Purdy’s top 2 receiving threats are TE’s, and the Cyclones like to feed Breece Hall in the run game. Having ample time to prepare for this game, I think Kansas State will come out strong defensively. I like Iowa State to win in a close one but for K-State to easily cover the +12.5.
Arizona State explains itself given the pick above.
