Entering Week 12, my CFB record sits at 81-60-1(57%), +28.8u this season. In addition these 4 free plays, I have reserved 7 plays for my premium members. Premium plays have hit at a 68% clip(69-32-1) and netted my members +51.45u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Illinois/Iowa UNDER 38.5(-110)–Sat. 1 PM CT
We lost our bet on the Iowa/Minnesota Under last week at a similar number, but I’m not hesitating to go right back to the well this week. Illinois has seen each of their last 7 games stay under this 38.5 number. The Illini are about as vanilla of an offense you’ll see in CFB; given Iowa’s success at forcing INT’s this season, Bret Bielema might not ask QB Brandon Peters to throw more than a few times the whole game. While Iowa is almost guaranteed to hold Illinois’s offense in check, the Hawkeyes offense has some questions entering this game. QB Spencer Petras didn’t play last week due to injury; backup Alex Padilla is less efficient but provides more explosiveness through the air(which, relatively speaking, still isn’t very much). Kirk Ferentz doesn’t seem in much of a rush to insert Petras back in, but either way, I’m not sure how much of a difference it makes. The Hawkeyes are averaging just 24 PPG this season, and even then, the defense has fueled a lot of those points. RB Tyler Goodson has been a disappointment in the run game(4.3 YPC), and given the Illini feature a very good LB group, I don’t see that changing this week. Illinois is allowing just 17.5 PPG in Big10 play, and given their current form, I trust them in this matchup. I understand that it’s hard to take an Under at this low of a total, but it is the right way to go.
*CFB(1u): Baylor/Kansas State UNDER 50(-110)–Sat. 4:30 PM CT
I’m a broken record at this point with my promotion of Kansas State Under’s, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Wildcats run the fewest plays/game in all of CFB, but even better, Baylor runs just 64.9 plays/game themselves, good for 119th out of 130 FBS teams. In other words, possessions in this game will be few and far in between. Given what each of these teams have shown defensively, I’m not expecting much offensive efficiency either. Baylor’s defense looked dominant against Oklahoma last week, yielding just 260 total yards and recording 5 sacks. The Bears defense has been great against the run all season, and I think they’ll be able to hold K-State RB Deuce Vaughn in check. K-State QB Skylar Thompson has had a great season, but he’s much more effective in a “game manager” role; if Vaughn is held in check, Thompson will be forced into some unfamiliar territory. Baylor’s offense has taken a step forward this season due to their run game; RB Abram Smith is averaging 144 yards/game over his past 4 games. However, QB Gerry Bohanon will need to make the necessary throws. Bohannon has good overall numbers this season, but his play has slipped in recent weeks(6 INT’s in last 4 games). Going up against what I would consider the best CB duo in the Big12, Baylor might play things more conservatively and try to avoid mistakes in this one. In any case, this Under has too much value for me to pass up.
*CFB(1u): Virginia Tech +7.5(-110) @ Miami–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
A lot will be made of Justin Fuente’s firing as justification for laying the points with Miami in this one, but I actually think the opposite could be true. We’ve seen teams band together after losing their HC this season, and the Hokies’ interim HC seems to be commanding more respect from the players than Fuente ever did. Additionally, that is a mute point considering Miami HC Manny Diaz is likely on the way out(the noise in Coral Gables has picked up quite a bit this week). Regardless, Miami is simply an overvalued commodity. QB Tyler Van Dyke had an unreal 3-4 game stretch, but as expected, he came back down to earth last week in a loss at Florida State. The Hurricanes often fail to establish the run and put a lot of pressure on Van Dyke to come through. If a heroic performance is required for your team to win, I’m going to play against you. Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister is a horrible passer and has limited options to work with on the outside, but he does provide value in the run game. Miami is soft defensively and can easily be run all over by this Hokie offense. While it did come against Duke, the 48 point performance by VT last week gives me a sliver of hope that they’ve turned a corner. This is simply many points to give Virginia Tech and a miscalculation of how the coaching dynamics affect this game; give me the points.
*CFB(0.6u): Navy ML(+165) vs East Carolina–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
This could come back to blow up in my face, but I think this play is worth a shot. East Carolina is a veteran-laden team who won their 6th game of the season last week, qualifying ECU for their first bowl game in 7 seasons. Navy’s triple option offense requires a great week of practice in order to manage the unique style of play; there’s a chance that the “hangover” effect could be present in this matchup. Additionally, East Carolina hosts Cincinnati next week in their final home game of the season; given the Senior Day implications and opponent, I infer that the Pirates are probably looking ahead to that matchup and not paying an opponent like Navy the respect they deserve. The Midshipmen are just 2-7 this season, but they have played SMU, Houston, and Cincinnati to 1 score games and are plenty capable of stepping up to the plate on their Senior Day. I don’t stick to strictly motivational angles very often in football, but I thought this one was worth sharing.
