The NHL returns from All-Star break with just two games scheduled. Given the small slate of games, I’ll breakdown the best matchup of the two which is the Carolina Hurricanes against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Lets get into it…
Carolina Hurricanes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN +
- Carolina Hurricanes: 31-9-2, 1st Metropolitan (15-5-1 Away)
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 29-10-3, 3rd Atlantic (16-4-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +110 | +110 | +1.5 (-215) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -133 | -130 | -1.5 (+175) | u6.0 (-120) |
Trends:
- Carolina are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
- Carolina are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto’s last 7 games.
- Toronto are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
Preview:
The Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs have faced off once before earlier this season. The Maple Leafs visited Carolina on October 25th where the Hurricanes won 4-1. Frederick Anderson got revenge against his former team stopping 24 of 25 shot attempts. In that matchup Carolina went off as a slight favorite (-115), and the Total was set at 6.0 (-120/+100).
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes return from the All-Star break tonight and look to build on their four game winning streak. They’ll begin a four game road trip where they’ll face Toronto tonight. Following this game they travel to Ottawa tomorrow to face off against the Senators before taking on Boston and Minnesota.
During the Hurricanes winning streak, their offense hasn’t been great averaging 2.75 Goals For. On the season they’re averaging 3.48 Goals For with an xGoals % of 54.61%. Keep in mind, anything above 50.00% is what you’re hoping for. Carolina generates an average of 32.9 Shots on Goal per game which ranks 12th. This team generates a ton of scoring chances as reflected by their Expected Goals For of 102.67. In terms of Power Play %, they convert at a 25.0% ranking 8th.
They currently have the best Goals Allowed in the NHL only allowing an average of 2.33 per game. In their last four games, this average has gone down to an average of 1.75. They do a great job of limiting opponents shots, ranking 1st in Shots on Goals Allowed. Despite their ability to limit shots, they have given up the 3rd most High Danger Shots against. Carolina has the 3rd best Goals Against Above Expected with a -14.32 somewhat in part due to the play of their goaltenders.
Frederick Anderson, who’s fresh off an All-Star appearance will get the start in net tonight. He has the 2nd best Goals Saved Above Expected with a +22.4 only behind Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers. He played well last time against his former team in their previous matchup and based on his current form, that trend should continue here.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Just like the Carolina Hurricanes, the Toronto Maple Leafs look to stay hot as they return from the break. They’ve rattled off five wins in a row with the majority of those games taking place on the road. Toronto will host the Hurricanes tonight before starting a three game road trip on Thursday.
On the year, Toronto averages 3.60 Goals For per game but during their last five games are averaging 5.4 Goals For per game. Their offense has been red hot as of late in part due to Austin Matthews performance. He has 4 Goals and 6 Assists in his last four games which includes a hat-trick against the Devils back on January 31. The Maple Leafs have an xGoals% of 55.14%, which is slightly better than Carolina’s. Just like their xGoals %, they generated more Expected Goals For with 106.97. Their Power Play ranks 1st in the NHL converting at a rate of 30.50%.
Defensively, Toronto has the 6th best Goals Against average allowing 2.64 per game. Over the course of their last 5 games, they’re averaging 2.60 which is only slightly better. This just shows that they’ve relied on their offense to win some games as of late which is unlike Carolina who’s used their defensive ability to win games. They’re giving up an average of 30.8 Shots Against per game but are great at limiting High Danger Shots. The Maple Leafs Penalty Kill has been solid on the season ranking 3rd (84.3%).
Jack Campbell, who made is first All-Star appearance and won the Save Streak competition this past weekend, will get the start in net. He has a +11.9 Goals Saved Above Expected in his 32 games played.
Pick:
- TORONTO/ CAROLINA OVER 6.5 (+100)
- In the last 10 games, both of these teams are giving up more goals than their season average. Carolina is averaging slightly less goals for but, Toronto is averaging almost a goal more than their season average. The games after Christmas break mostly all went over their total due to sloppy play so I’m banking on the same trend happening here.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
