In addition to these 2 free plays, I also have 5 plays reserved for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.5% clip and have netted my members just over +49u since September 2021. Click here to become a premium member, and let’s have a breakout Saturday!
*CBB(1u): Rutgers -2.5(-110) vs Wisconsin–5 PM CT
At home this season, Rutgers has an 11 point win against Illinois, 19 point win against Michigan State, as well as close wins against Purdue, Michigan, and Ohio State. I don’t know how much more clear it could be that this is their role. While Rutgers is coming off of two straight losses, each of those games came on the road against tournament-caliber teams(Purdue, Michigan); they put up respectable efforts in each game. The Scarlet Knights can leave some points on the offensive end of the floor, but they have a punishing defense that ranks 43rd in defensive efficiency and steps up consistently at home. I don’t mind playing against Wisconsin because I believe they’re due for some serious regression. The Badgers rank 6th out of 358 teams in KenPom’s “luck” meter and just aren’t as good as their 22-5 record would indicate. This will also be their second straight road game after narrowly squeaking by Minnesota earlier this week. Am I paying a premium by laying 2.5 here? Sure. But given how many times Rutgers has stepped up in this spot, I’m more than happy to lay the number here.
*CBB(1u): Texas Tech/TCU UNDER 131.5(-110)–5 PM CT
Texas Tech has climbed all the way up to #1 in defensive efficiency after allowing just 55 points to Texas and 42 points to Oklahoma in their last 2 games. While their defense is elite, the Red Raiders are probably worse offensively than that 50th offensive efficiency rating would lead you to believe. They’ve stepped up nicely in big games offensively, but in “trap” road games like these, they have not lived up to the bill. They put up just 55 against Oklahoma a few weeks ago as well as 51 at Kansas State earlier in conference play, losing each of those games by double digits. I certainly lean TCU here, but I can’t get on board with them offensively. The Horned Frogs shoot just 30% from 3, 66.7% from the free-throw line, and go at one of the slowest paces in the Big12. However, they do rank 29th in defensive efficiency and will certainly be hyped up in this step up spot at home. Under is the way to approach this game.
