The 148th run for the roses is finally here and we have a large pack of ponies bunched together with no clear favorite. The good news is that it looks like the weather will be just fine today with a high around 68 degrees and mostly sunny. My how that has changed over the past few days when we all thought that it would be a sloppy track. The bad news is that this race doesn’t have the notorious trainer Mr. Bob Baffert attending this race based on his doping suspension yet his two horses will be running in this derby in Messier and Taiba under trainer (assistant coach) Mr. Tim Yakteen. To make matters worse, there is a live conspiracy theory from these two horses from the Santa Anita derby that Messier held up at the end of his race to let Taiba cross the finish line in order to take first to get enough qualifying points to be in the Kentucky Derby. This is where the handicapping really comes into play. Let’s take a look at the two favorites. Zandon is going off around 3-1 and Epicenter is at 3.5-1. Zandon is a stone cold closer trained by Chad Brown who was beaten back in February in a shorter race by Epicenter. He has shown great improvement in his last win therefore the reason for the price hike. Zandon should love the longer distance here in the Derby. Epicenter is trained by Steve Asmussen and this favorite has won his last four out of five races dropping only one back in January by a nose. This horse is a front runner who has also shown great improvement since his only loss. I like all for of these horses to hit the board, but I also like two other horses that have great prices that could bring in a nice payday if the favorites end up crapping out. The 8 horse Charge-It is a Todd Pletcher horse who has only been raced three times, yet has performed very well placing twice and winning once. His last race in the Florida Derby ended up with him getting bumped out to the outside, hurting his chances to win the race against White Abarrio. Had this horse had a clean trip, he might have won this race. Can’t ignore him at 20-1. The next horse that I like is Cyberknife who is a Brad Cox horse that has improved every race since his blinkers came off back in March. Jose Ortiz is the Jockey here and he comes with a lot of experience and is looking for his first Derby win. Great Trainer, Great Jockey and Great win makes this horse very tempting at 20-1 as well.
My Strategy:
Being that I like 5 horses (Epicenter, Zandon, Charge-It, Taiba, and Cyberknife) it can be very expensive to try and go for a winning ticket using other price horses at the back end of a trifecta box. Due to this, I think that I will have to go heavier on the Exactas to try and make some money from this race and sacrifice missing out on a larger combination. Nothing is guaranteed in horse racing, and I can only hope that three of my six choices will all hit the board. My top two horses that I am using are based on price and potential. Charge it will go off better than 12-1 and Taiba has the best jockey as well as the most talent who should go off better than 8-1. Gonna use the favorites as well due to the size of the derby pot. Could hit twice on a few combos. Here are my plays.
Total Ticket Cost $490
Play it for half if you like:
Trifecta
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[3, 10] – 2nd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16] – 3rd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16] | |
40 bets @ $2
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Ticket total $80
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Trifecta
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[8, 12, 16] – 2nd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16] – 3rd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16] | |
60 bets @ $1.00
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Ticket total $60
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Trifecta
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[8, 12] – 2nd[3, 8, 10, 12] – 3rd[1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 19] | |
66 bets @ $1.00
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Ticket total $66
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Exacta Box
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[3, 10] | |
2 bets @ $15
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Ticket total $30
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Exacta
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[6, 8, 12, 16] – 2nd[3, 10] | |
8 bets @ $4
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Ticket total $32
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Exacta
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[3] – 2nd[6, 8, 12, 15] | |
4 bets @ $5
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Ticket total $20
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Exacta
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[10] – 2nd[6, 8, 12, 15] | |
4 bets @ $6
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Ticket total $24
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Exacta Box
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[1, 3, 8, 12, 16, 19] | |
30 bets @ $2
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Ticket total $60
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Trifecta Box
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[1, 10, 12, 15] | |
24 bets @ $1.00
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Ticket total $24
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Exacta Box
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[10, 15, 16] | |
6 bets @ $3
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Ticket total $18
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Straight
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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Charge It W/P/S $10 per Taiba W/P/S $10 per |
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6 bets
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Ticket total $60
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Superfecta
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Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
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1st[12] – 2nd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12] – 3rd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12] – 4th[1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 19] | |
60 bets @ $.2
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Ticket total $12
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Best of luck everyone and remember to bet within your limits!