We’re down after last week, but never out. The best bets went 1–2, and while I’d prefer not to revisit the Minnesota game ever again, there were real takeaways.
Mississippi State was the clear right side, and the Gophers never had a chance. The Bulldogs are going to be a fantastic home dog in SEC play as long as Super Kamario stays upright — that offense travels, but it thrives in Starkville.
Army had USF right where they wanted them, up 24–14 with five minutes left, and then the Bulls absolutely dominated the closing stretch. Watching that final five minutes, I still don’t understand how USF didn’t control the entire game. They have better athletes at every level. Going forward, with the slow pace they insist on playing, I’ll look to fade them as favorites and back them as dogs. They can hang with anyone in the American, but their style will keep lesser teams in games they shouldn’t be in.
On a positive note, Delaware came through with the cover — and it was sweaty. Nick Miniccuci was in and out of the lineup, and a lot of the handicap depended on him staying in. Even with the QB shuffle, Vanderbilt couldn’t pull away, and Delaware kept moving the ball with a backup under center. Vandy looks like they’re headed for a long season. I don’t see them covering many spreads as favorites — or even being favorites — and the Blue Hens might quietly be an over team as we move forward.
🔥 Best Bets
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time: 12:45 PM ET
Channel: SEC Network (SECN)
Opening Line: Vanderbilt -4.5
Current Line: Vanderbilt -3.5
Key Matchups: NC State offense vs Vanderbilt defense — Vanderbilt gave up 220 passing yards to Delaware and only outgained them by a single yard… and Delaware’s starting QB didn’t even play the whole game.
Freshman QB vs Real Pressure — Jared Curtis is talented, but this is his first college start.
Analysis: Week one showed us NC State’s weaknesses, and week two showed us Vanderbilt’s — and Vanderbilt’s issues are the ones I’m willing to bet against. Unlike Virginia, Vanderbilt is not elite in the trenches, and that’s going to matter here. CJ Bailey should have no problem moving the ball against this Vanderbilt defense, especially after they just gave up 220 passing yards to Delaware while barely outgaining them by a single yard. Delaware’s starting quarterback didn’t even play the whole game, and Vanderbilt still couldn’t control the line of scrimmage.
The handicap is simple: Vanderbilt is starting freshman quarterback Jared Curtis in his first career start. He’s talented, and honestly he’s the better quarterback on their roster, but this is a tough spot for a debut. Even though NC State’s defense isn’t great, Curtis is still being asked to win his first start against a Power Five opponent with real speed and physicality. I’m fading the freshman here and taking the experience on the other sideline.
I’ll take NC State plus the three and the hook.
Pick: NC State +3.5
Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owls
Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: FAU -9.5
Current Line: FAU -7
Key Matchups:
Air attack vs air attack — Both teams lean heavily on their aerial attack, and the real question is who can slow down the other’s passing game. Maybe neither can, and if this turns into a shootout, that plays directly into our hands.
Analysis:
Last week FAU’s offense looked unstoppable. Similar to the Army game, Navy simply didn’t have the personnel to cover FAU’s athletic receivers, and Caden Veltkamp spent the entire afternoon throwing to wide‑open targets. I’m not convinced FIU can shut FAU down completely — but they don’t need to. FIU will have plenty of chances to move the ball on a weak FAU secondary that hasn’t shown it can hold up for four quarters.
This is a rivalry game, and FIU won it last year. Add in a bit of a letdown spot for FAU coming off a win over Navy, and this sets up nicely for the Panthers to keep it within a touchdown. The number is already trending down, so I’m grabbing the 7 before it disappears.
Pick:
FIU +7
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Maryland Terrapins
Location: SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Channel: FS1
Opening Line: Virginia Tech -1.5
Current Line: Virginia Tech -2.5
Key Matchups:
James Franklin vs Maryland — This is personal. Franklin‑coached teams are 9–2 straight up and 8–3 ATS against Maryland. He’s made a career out of taking this matchup seriously, and history shows he doesn’t miss many chances to stick it to the Terps.
Analysis:
Both teams come in hot after cruising through their first two games, and there isn’t a clear on‑field edge you can hang your hat on. So we look to the sideline — and that’s where the handicap lives.
James Franklin has a chip on his shoulder when it comes to Maryland. He’s made it clear over the years that this is one of the programs he feels slighted by, and he’s taken it out on them every chance he gets. This isn’t the same talent gap he enjoyed at Penn State, but Franklin is still the better coach in this matchup, and you can bet he has a plan ready to make life miserable for the Terps.
With the line sitting under a field goal, I’m backing Franklin in a spot he historically dominates. But move quickly — this number is climbing.
Pick:
Virginia Tech (-2.5)
📌 Bets I’ve Already Made
I would not call these best bets but, these are smaller bets I have made. If you would like more picks follow me on X: @n0t_an_athlete
Miami @ Wake Forest O/55.5
Houston (+7.5) @ Texas Tech
Georgia (-24.5) @ Arkansas
NDSU (-27.5) @ Sacramento State
