Hi All! Taking another day off from MLB to get more organized in baseball data etc. I’ll have plays tomorrow, and a few leans are below.
NBA Picks:
Heat 1Q under 25.5, 1 unit
Celtics TT over 107, 1 unit
Heat/Celtics over 207.5, 1.5 units
Every game has eclipsed tonight’s total and I think Monday’s contest might have the best chance for some explosive offense. Here’s why:
1) Boston WILL get fouls called.
2) Miami’s defense was tremendous in game 3 and Boston still shot pretty well. With how banged up these players are today, it’s reasonable to expect some positive regression on offense and perhaps a little less clanging/banging on defense.
3) I expect the Celtics to attack early and often and therefore provide an uptick in pace. We’ve seen Miami chase another team’s pace before, and that pushes up points.
4) The Celtics historically go up and down in their 3-point shooting efficiency and since they couldn’t do much in game 3 (12/32), I think it’s a better result tonight.
I’m including the Heat under in the 1st quarter as a hedge of sorts but also because I think they could start out really cold. Herro, PJ, Butler, Strus, and Lowry are all banged up in various ways. Boston has their aches and pains too but they need this game more. Regression based purely on changes in motivation are a thing.
MLB Leans:
Guardians/Astros under 8.5
Padres ML
